The capital feast of new energy vehicles has ushered in a different voice.
Recently, the head of Weichai Power solemnly warned at the performance conference that new energy vehicles will have catastrophic overcapacity. And make it clear that this statement is carefully considered, not nonsense...
It was also at about the same time that BYD officially announced that it would take the lead in the world to stop production of fuel vehicles and accelerate the layout of new energy vehicles.
It is also a giant in the domestic automotive industry, but it points out a different direction on the new energy vehicle.
However, this seems to contradict each other, but no one is wrong.
The current field of new energy vehicles, with the crazy entry of capital in recent years, has long been in the second half. Strong competitive strength, strong hengqiang, attack the city to seize the market effortlessly. Those who cannot compete will either withdraw from liquidation or be annexed by their opponents.
To put it bluntly, the industry has entered the inner volume stage of survival of the fittest.
Fear when others are greedy, and staying sober in revelry are the qualities of good capital bosses. The shout of the chairman of Weichai Power is a wake-up call to the current new energy vehicle bubble, which is worthy of our deep consideration.
01
The "roll" of new energy vehicles
First, let's look at a set of data, passenger car production capacity in 2021 by enterprise sales volume:
Very obvious features: the sales volume of passenger cars of car companies shows a two-eight differentiation. According to the data of the Association, among the 86 companies with sales in this statistics, a total of 16 companies with more than 600,000 vehicles are counted, and the combined sales of these companies account for nearly 80% of the total sales. This means that of the remaining 70 companies, the total sales volume accounts for only 20%.
This does not include car companies with no sales, and the truth is much more cruel than the statistics. The "Matthew effect" in the Internet industry is also staged again in the new energy automobile industry: the head companies have eaten most of the market share, and many smaller and lower-selling companies can no longer afford to return to heaven.
But another cruel fact is that the head camp pattern is not stable, and fierce fighting is in progress.
In the past year, "Wei Xiaoli" firmly controlled the first camp of new car-making forces, and now, zero-run and Nezha delivery volumes have soared, and the "Five Tigers" have officially replaced the "three strong", reshaping the market pattern of new domestic car-making forces.
At the beginning of the month, the new car-making forces successively announced the delivery volume in March. Among them, Xiaopeng delivered 15414 vehicles, Nezha delivered 12026 vehicles, Ideal delivered 11034 vehicles, Zero Run delivered 10059 vehicles, and Weilai delivered 9985 vehicles, ranking first to fifth respectively.
The biggest potential is a zero-run car. The zero-run cars that were previously crushed by the top three, the monthly delivery volume exceeded the 10,000 unit mark for the first time, nearly twice the month-on-month growth, and the entire first quarter was more than four times the year-on-year increase. The rising stars are desperately trying to catch up, and I am afraid that the "Wei Xiaoli" will also be restless.
Obviously, the fierce battle between the new forces of new energy car manufacturing is like the stock competition of the Internet giants, and it has fallen back to the fierce battle of homogenization.
You don't roll you, he rolls you.
Some people joked that in fact, the competition in the field of domestic new energy vehicles has reached the "Warring States Era".
02
Overcapacity is already overcapacity
According to the statistics of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, by the end of 2021, the national passenger car production capacity will total 40.89 million units, and the capacity utilization rate will be 52.47%. Although it is 4% higher than 48.45% in 2020, it is still in the range of serious overcapacity.
In addition, among the passenger car companies in this statistics, a total of 86 have sales, and the total production capacity of these enterprises is 37.038 million units, which means that 3.85 million production capacity of other non-sales companies is completely idle.
The official research institute CCID Think Tank said in the article "Vigilance against the Risk of Overcapacity of New Energy Vehicles in the 14th Five-Year Plan" that at the end of 2020, the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in the mainland has reached 26.69 million, compared with the annual market sales of only 1.367 million vehicles, which means that at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" mainland new energy vehicles have serious overcapacity problems.
More planned production capacity is being released, even if the future of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles "equally divided the world", such a large volume, the market is difficult to undertake. Obviously, in the future, there may be huge idleness and waste of resources such as funds, talents and land, and the "price war" is about to erupt.
In addition, with the market reshuffle, the phenomenon of unbalanced capacity utilization rate in the automobile industry is becoming more and more obvious. Weak enterprises such as Zotye Automobile, Lifan Automobile, BAIC Yinxiang, Cheetah Automobile have production capacity, no sales at all, and are gradually abandoned by the market; while Beijing Hyundai, GAC FCA, Dongfeng Yueda Kia and other enterprises have seriously declined sales in recent years, the market has shrunk, and a large amount of spare capacity has been vacated.
On the other hand, leading companies such as Tesla, BMW, and Dongfeng Honda have more demand for production capacity. Including tesla, which previously had a tight production capacity on the Internet, will acquire Zotye on the verge of bankruptcy. The scandal is indeed outrageous, but in terms of production capacity alone, Tesla's monthly sales exceeded 50,000 vehicles for 6 consecutive months, and the factory's full-load production still could not meet the market demand; on the other hand, Zotye had a large number of idle plants and production capacity.
To put it bluntly, it is the drought death of drought, the death of waterlogging, and whether there is overcapacity, which is a completely different feeling for different enterprises.
Compared with overcapacity, it is more terrible to not be able to build a car, especially the huge bubble of PPT car manufacturing can burst at any time, and we have seen a lot in the past two years.
At the end of January, Ranger Motors' chairman Wei Jun was frozen by the court for 45 million yuan of stock options, which was brought back to the public eye by Ranger Motors, which had been forgotten by the public for a long time. Founded in 2014, Ranger Motors is the first batch of new car-making forces in the mainland, and At the same time as Ranger Motors or slightly later started Weilai Automobile, Ideal Car, etc., have broken through the hall of fame, while Ranger Motors has fallen into the dilemma of suspension of work and production, project failure, arrears of the company and so on.
The same problem also happened to Byton Automobile, which also spent nearly 10 billion yuan, but the same car was not built and is facing the embarrassing situation of being filed for bankruptcy.
At its peak, there were more than 300 new car-making forces, and after experiencing a series of tests such as financing, design, capacity construction, and mass production delivery, most of them had no voice, or fell into bankruptcy crisis, and even the "five tigers" who were already in the head were spending the winter in a meticulous way.
03
More brutal knockouts
Today's new energy vehicles face at least 3 major problems.
One is the overall trend of automobile consumption power downward, the second is the counterattack of traditional fuel vehicles, and the third is the industry's internal volume.
In 2021, China's automobile sales finally stopped the decline for three consecutive years and achieved positive year-on-year growth, but the overall downward trend of sales is still difficult to reverse, but the sales growth of new forces within is to grab the traditional fuel vehicle companies.
This is the most macro pressure, at least the sales and price increase pressure of new energy vehicles will become greater.
Today's new car-making forces are facing not only the difficulties of their own technology and route development, but also the challenges from other traditional old forces.
Taking traditional car companies as far as the case is concerned, the most urgent signal of the electrification process is not carbon emissions, nor is it a ban on combustion, but the market value of Slava surpasses Toyota to become the world's first car company by market value. Many multinational car companies have a sense of crisis, have announced the acceleration of the electrification strategy, the comprehensive transformation of pure electric timetable once again advanced, and many giants are vigorously investing money to accelerate the progress.
According to the production plan of each family, the original time of concentrated release of production capacity in these two years was delayed by one or two years due to the impact of the epidemic, but there was finally a war between the new and old forces.
The above also has an analysis, the new forces of car manufacturing are also constantly setting up new factories, although everyone knows that the scale of production capacity is far beyond the actual demand, but no one obeys anyone, just like the prisoner's dilemma, no one dares to stop.
In the context of the inability of explosive growth on the consumer side in the future, how will these huge outputs released at once be digested?
04
epilogue
According to the development law of emerging industries, from barbaric growth to standardized operation, it is inevitable to go through a painful process. After several years of rapid development, the new energy automobile industry has reached the stage of excessive inflation, and the huge waste of production capacity is evidenced.
Next, the bubble stage will inevitably be squeezed.
It can be expected that many new forces that have now run out of the scale effect, as well as the traditional giants who are about to "return the king", will not lose in a high probability. A large number of players below the waist, even in the PPT stage, will become more and more difficult, leaving them with little time.
But on the other hand, in recent years, a large amount of capital has frantically poured into new energy vehicles, although it has promoted the rapid development of the industry and made great contributions to the reform of the national economic structure. But it is undeniable that this has also brought too much disorderly expansion, although the new energy vehicle track is huge, but after accommodating massive capital, the track has also become crowded, resulting in inefficient internal friction competition, talent and land and other resource waste.
Looking around, China still has too many important technology industries that represent the future that urgently need capital irrigation and talent attention to break through foreign restrictions, while so much capital is only willing to pile up new energy vehicles, which makes people feel a sigh.