Source: Mao You said Editor: Zhu Hao
Cover/Figureworm Creative Author/Release Old Mao
All those who rub hot spots to build cars, the first reaction is to pull black.
Since Xiaomi announced the construction of cars, I have not been optimistic about it. At that time, a lot of rice noodles left a message here that it was a big positive, a big wind outlet, I said it was a bearish, because I am afraid it is a bottomless pit, the cash flow in the next ten years may be burned, it may not be successful, the risk of water drifting is extremely great, Lei Jun did not have any technology and experience accumulation in the car industry before. (Xiaomi was included in the first heavy position "Hong Kong stocks my first choice" when it was more than 8 Hong Kong dollars; Lei Jun is also an entrepreneur I admire, "Lei Jun involved in the "army" was PUA, but now the first heavy position in Hong Kong stocks has been replaced by Ali)
Apple awesome, right? Soft and hard integration dominates the consumer electronics kingdom for nearly two decades, invincible existence, Apple car has been placed high hopes by the market, is considered to be a real subversive force, the latest news is that the team is about to disband, even PPT has not been out of it.
Jabs has been using PPT to build cars overseas, and has also been listed on the backdoor, but mass production is far away, not to mention generating cash flow and profits. According to the report, although Faraday officially announced that it has received more than 14,000 orders, only a few hundred of these orders have actually paid for after investigation. Jabs could not be as successful in the United States as he was at home, but instead attracted counterfeit companies to short, questioning "Whether He thinks Faraday can sell even one car in the future" Now even the legal audit of the financial report can not be submitted, the stock price has fallen to a fraction.
Shareholders remember the barbarian Yao Yuanwai, right? It is said that he made more than 20 billion yuan on Vanke, and later built cars and lost money, and now he is heavily indebted, in default, and from time to time there are rumors of missing contacts.
Evergrande made cars, and finally came from PPT to physical objects, the car has not yet been launched, and the parent company is about to go out of business.
Now everyone envies Tesla, behind Tesla's infinite scenery, is ten years of entrepreneurship, ten years of burning money, on the verge of death no less than three times, and finally to survive in death, salted fish turned over. Don't just want to become the second Tesla, think more about the tired corpses that fell behind Tesla on the track of new energy vehicles. Why Did Musk Dance for China? 》
Why is it so hard to build a car? The industrial chain of the automobile is extremely complex and huge, and the consumer's requirements for quality and safety are endless, and no user will reduce the safety demand for cost performance. The automobile industry is also the jewel in the crown of the manufacturing industry, a car, tens of thousands of parts, the company's supply chain management, cost control, mass production capabilities, quality control capabilities, are the ultimate test.
It can be said that car building is the ultimate embodiment of a country's industrial capacity. In a country with a developed car industry, the ability to fight wars is naturally not insignificant, and it also has the mechanization ability to crush opponents during war. We see that behind the incredible crotch of the Russian army's combat is the overall collapse of the country's industrial capacity, and just by selling oil to make money, the big country cannot build a high-quality and inexpensive car, and it cannot also create a tank with functional applicability.
To build a car, the time point is very important, and it needs time, location and people.
Wei Xiaoli, the success of the new forces of car building, is more about stepping on the right rhythm. The founders had deep accumulation in the industry before, taking advantage of the wind outlet, listing and financing, and could survive. Although the market value exceeded 100 billion, in fact, the financial reports of the three companies are still in a state of loss.
Not only Xiaomi makes cars, but also mavericks plan to build cars. Li Yinan, the former "prince" of Juchang, recently announced that he will enter high-end passenger cars from the Calf Electric Vehicle. I think it's also hanging, and I chose the wrong time. Now the stock price of the secondary market has fallen sharply, which directly affects the financing of entrepreneurs. Due to the uncertainty between China and the United States, the overseas listing is in doubt, the US dollar VC/PE reassess china compliance risks, and the VC market is completely cold. Li Yinan intends to use the power of capital to overtake in curves, I am afraid that the difficulty is much higher than when Wei Xiaoli started his business. If you use self-generated funds to build cars like Xiaomi, the Maverick electric car itself is too weak, the cash flow generated by the business is not enough to support large-scale burning money, and the capital game cannot be played.
The new force Wei Xiaoli can be said to have seized the best opportunity to raise the card slot, the listing was successful, the main products launched were also favored by users, and quickly occupied the mental share of consumers, so they stood firm and passed the most difficult initial stage, Xiaomi, Mavericks, these latecomers, one step late, one step late, one step late, missed an era!
Even I think that it is difficult for new forces to emerge in the future (Apple and Huawei have hope, depending on how they cut into the car market, not necessarily the whole vehicle). The current pattern of automobile manufacturers not only cannot accommodate newcomers, but also has to roll in a round, eliminate, integrate, and eventually survive the big brands, which may not exceed six.
This is the law of the automobile industry: the American automobile industry was also a hundred flowers at the beginning, the pattern was scattered, after hundreds of years of big waves, the last three remaining: Ford, GM, Chrysler, and then acquired by German companies, to make up a Tesla. The last three major car companies in Japan are: Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.
According to Wang Xing's judgment, he put forward the 3+3+3+3 theory of the pattern of famous Chinese car companies, that is, the 12 companies in the four series that are determined to survive at present are 3 central enterprises: 3 central enterprises are FAW, Dongfeng, and Chang'an; 3 local departments are SAIC, GAC, and BAIC; 3 private enterprises are Great Wall, Geely, and BYD; and 3 new forces are Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng. The 12 players advance to the next round of knockout rounds.
Don't underestimate Wang Xing's prediction, this dude said a sentence in 2019: "2019 may be the worst year in the past decade, but it will be the best year in the next decade." "At that time, they all thought it was a joke, but when they looked back three years later, did they have a spiritual experience?
I made a decision against my ancestors to build a car.
Of course, I am neither an engineer nor an entrepreneur, as a shareholder, I can only invest in automobile stocks and participate in car manufacturing. The reason is that the hand owes do not resist the temptation, the valuation is too cheap, cheaper than your own investment in the factory, equivalent to a discount to build a car. In my personal judgment, this family is at least doing well for now, and it is a member of the 12 families in the fourth series. As for whether you can survive to the end, the leftovers are king? No one can say for sure, after all, it will be a decade or decades later.
This car company is the Hong Kong stock of GAC. Yesterday's reduction of CNOOC, the establishment of a warehouse OFC, CNOOC bought last year, inflation benefit industries, is not expensive at present, but oil prices I estimate that almost the stage peaked, the First Half of the Russian-Ukrainian War will end in the first half of the year, if the fire can not be stopped, Pujing Zen Master may really come into being!
It was the day of the annual report, which was very eye-catching, but the stock price was not moved, and I couldn't help but be moved. In 2021, GAC Group achieved a total operating income of about 429.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.66% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 7.3 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 23% year-on-year. This performance, really nothing to say, hanging Wei Xiaoli (loss), not let BYD (-28%)!
What is the valuation of Hong Kong stocks for it? The price-to-earnings ratio is only 7 times, which is similar to the high-leverage industry such as bank real estate; the dividend rate is 4%, which is higher than the balance of deposits; the price-to-book ratio is 0.6 times, which is equivalent to the 60% discount for shareholders to build cars. I can't understand what PPT circle money entrepreneurs still do? Entrepreneurship is not as good as investment, entrepreneurship is real money and silver to burn money, investment is to buy a car company with a strong brand and a mature supply chain at a discounted price.
Gac Group's assets and business are very clear, the financial report is very clean, simply put, four blocks: GAC Toyota + GAC Honda + GAC Trumpchi + GAC Eian.
The two fields are joint venture cars, mainly traditional fuel vehicles, and in recent years, they have also begun to mix, but it is not the current hot BYD plug-in mix, but the oil mix that the two fields are good at. Liangtian, in the field of traditional car manufacturing is a god-like existence, the brand in the minds of Chinese car owners have a reputation, although electric vehicles are a major trend, but at least ten years is still a cash cow, contributing 10 billion yuan of profits per year, grain and grass are continuous, there will be no loss risk or financing needs.
Ryota is Shouzheng, and Trumpchi Aean is surprising. GAC's future focus is on its own brand Trumpchi and the new energy vehicle Eian.
GAC Trumpchi has done a good job in domestic independent brands, and most of the independent brands of other state-owned enterprises are in huge losses, and Trumpchi can almost achieve breakeven. In 2016, there was a blockbuster car GS4, which took the stock price flying, and then it could not be sold, and it has been sluggish. In 2021, Trumpchi has launched new or modified models such as Shadow Leopard, GS4 PLUS, second-generation GS8, M6 Pro, etc., with cumulative sales of 320,000 vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 10.35% year-on-year. In the first three months of this year, sales of self-owned brands are said to have increased considerably.
GAC Aeon is the future of GAC, the main focus is pure electric, in 2021 year-on-year growth of 101%, the cumulative sales of 120,000 vehicles, the current production capacity is insufficient, but also to expand to an annual output of 200,000 vehicles of production capacity. Although the profit is still far away, GAC is actually not inferior to the new forces of Wei Xiaoli with the strength of an E-an alone. Wei Xiaoli is also currently losing money, with annual sales of about 120,000 vehicles, a growth rate of more than 100%, and a valuation of about 200 billion to 300 billion market value. Eian's latest big move is mixed reform, employees into the shares, the future will definitely be independent IPO listing, the market value is compared with Wei Xiaoli.
The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong-listed GAC Group is only HK$68 billion, and the sum of these four assets is simply incredibly undervalued.
GAC is a target suitable for price investment. Speaking of value investment, it is reverse investment, but Bin is not value investment, it is a typical chase to the rise and fall, "Bottom Signal: But Bin Clearance"; what is reverse investment? This fund manager's performance in the big fall is the real investment, and like him, in addition to the necessary living expenses for the family, all the ammunition is constantly hitting the stock market...
Tips for risk, this article is only a record, not as investment advice, cars belong to high-risk strong cycle industry, Buffett said, do not invest in companies with wheels. In my career as an investor, this is the third time I have invested in automobile stocks, and I have bought Great Wall Motors and Changan B shares twice before, but I have not made money, which is too difficult. If this time can not work, the matter is not three, in the future to learn from the good example of the old bus, always give up building cars!