Recently, the "Wanli Huanxing" new car long test team visited Dezhou, Binzhou, Dongying, Weifang, Zibo, Linyi, Jinan and other areas in Shandong Province. Through exchanges and visits, we will investigate China's new energy vehicle market and infrastructure including highway service areas on the way to travel, and discover new user scenarios, so as to guide and promote the consumption of new energy vehicles. Along the way, the harvest is full.
Shandong is a traditional automobile province, the new energy automobile industry has a certain foundation, And large cities such as Jinan and Qingdao are also hot spots for the development of new energy vehicles. During the trip, the team interviewed Dong Yue, a local car expert in Shandong, who has rich practical experience in car company training and automobile circulation and operation, and through his perspective, he talked about his views on the new energy automobile industry in Shandong Province.
Car master Dong Yue
As we all know, mileage anxiety is one of the main reasons why users are discouraged from buying new energy vehicles. There are also some users, even if they have purchased new energy vehicles, but also in the urban area, and they are jealous of running long distances and going to high speeds. Every year during the small holiday, the scene of new energy vehicles lining up in the service area to charge is vividly remembered, so that many consumers love and hate the use of new energy vehicles.
In Dong Yue's view, the proportion of new energy vehicles driving on the highway is much lower than the actual proportion of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles. Many users dare not drive new energy vehicles on high speed and run long distances, an important reason is that the number of charging piles on the highway is too small.
The survey shows that there are only 700 charging piles in 144 pairs of service areas (one pair of service areas, that is, one for each upper and lower rows) in a certain area, and an average of 5 charging piles in 1 service area. Daily, although there is no holiday queue, it is not that the number of hardware in the service area is in place, but that consumers are weak in their hearts and dare not go. The emergence of this situation deeply reflects the complementary energy anxiety that exists when users run at high speeds.
Dong Yue believes that if the existing infrastructure construction in the service area is to be upgraded to a level of peace of mind, then the number of charging piles needs to be increased by 10 times. Because of the same energy efficiency, the fuel vehicle is 10 times the energy efficiency of the charging pile, if there are 5 refueling guns in 1 service area, it should correspond to 50 supplementary electric guns. From the perspective of efficiency comparison, there are 10 times the charging gun of the fuel gun to actually solve the problem of high-speed energy replenishment anxiety on new energy vehicles.
In addition, to solve the problem of energy replenishment anxiety, in addition to increasing the number of charging piles, the follow-up maintenance of charging piles also needs to be continuously followed up, so that the infrastructure can continue to operate effectively.
In this regard, Dong Yue also bluntly pointed out that the follow-up maintenance of the charging pile is not satisfactory. Nowadays, the scarcity of charging piles in high-speed service areas is mainly due to the problem of interests. If the energy replenishment income can reach more than 50% of the refueling income, then the relevant parties will pay enough attention. It's negotiable who will go to that benefit, but the ultimate goal is for the infrastructure to continue to function efficiently.
Technical barriers will soon be broken, and car anxiety will be solved
In Dong Yue's view, pure trams are easier to break through due to the small number of components, and their development speed is faster than the development speed of hybrid models and fuel vehicles. The fact that two years ago, pure trams and today's pure trams have a huge difference that is visible to the naked eye, which further validates this view. It is no exaggeration to say that the speed of progress of pure trams, including the speed of update iterations, is even as fast as that of smartphones.
Therefore, the rapid breakthrough of technical barriers will fundamentally solve many of the current car anxieties. For example, for the problem of low temperature affecting battery life in the northern region in winter, it can be solved by installing a heat pump after installation, and the price is not too expensive. For example, for new energy vehicles, whether it is a single motor or a double motor, the speed will be pulled very high when driving at high speed, and the faster the speed, the faster the power consumption, then the transmission can actually solve this problem. There is already a two-speed transmission in mass production. It took about one to two years from studying this problem to developing a two-speed transmission, but it may have taken several months from two to three gears. That is to say, without increasing the battery capacity and without improving the battery technology, the endurance of the existing model is increased by 30%, or even higher the mileage, which is a high probability that it can be solved. Therefore, if the mileage and energy replenishment facilities of new energy vehicles are further improved, then the continuous development of new energy vehicles will become a reality.
The purchase of new energy vehicles should avoid the pit of oil to electricity
Of course, for the purchase of new energy vehicles, Dong Yue believes that oil-to-electricity products and pure electric platform products can be described as worlds apart, so the most important thing is to recognize the platform and avoid the pit of oil-to-electricity models. The so-called oil to electricity products, in simple terms, is to directly change the products under the fuel vehicle platform to the three-electric system, and then renovate the interior, which is known as the listing of new energy products. This product seems to have a relatively low research and development cost and a relatively perfect supplier system, but in fact, its cost is higher and the user experience is very poor.
Car prices are rising and rising, buy now or choose to wait and see
Recently, due to the external environment, oil prices have risen significantly, and the price of new energy vehicles has also soared, so when should users buy a car?
In this regard, Dong Yue believes that the actual transaction price of the terminal is often lagging behind the changes in the international situation, changes in energy prices, and changes in the supply of raw materials. Due to the price lag, there is a process from actual production, to transportation, and then to market sales. Therefore, it is expected that the price of the car will rise again in the near future. Dong Yue said that consumers who are in a hurry to use the car are as quick as possible, and they can book the car first. If you are not in a hurry to use the car, you can choose to wait and see, but you must have a psychological expectation of waiting and seeing for more than half a year.
The short-term impact of the new energy vehicle market is large, and the long-term will oscillate upwards
The reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles is mainly the rise in battery costs, the cost of a battery has risen by about six or seven thousand yuan, coupled with the national replenishment slope, this in and out, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of new cars.
The increase in vehicle prices caused by the increase in battery prices is actually the production capacity of battery manufacturers that restricts the development speed of new energy vehicles. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the continuous price increase of new energy vehicles in the short term has led to some consumers holding coins for purchase, and the phenomenon of sharp sales has decreased. However, in the long run, the recognition of the new energy vehicle market, including capacity, will expand, so the new energy vehicle market will maintain a volatile upward trend. However, it is worth noting that the extreme imbalance in the development of regions and regions has led to serious polarization in the market penetration of various brands, including individual products.
New energy vehicles will have retaliatory consumption
In Dong Yue's view, the recent sharp rise in the price of new energy vehicles will have a great impact on the overall sales volume, which is quite unfavorable in the short term. But if energy and raw materials can come down around May, that is to say, in the case of energy prices, battery supply tends to be normal, the supply and demand of main engine factory production capacity reach a balanced state, and the epidemic is controlled, then even in the off-season of July and August, there will be retaliatory consumption, which will support the original traditional off-season automobile market. Moreover, the market performance of new energy vehicles will be better than that of fuel vehicles. After all, consumers of fuel vehicles have cast a psychological shadow on the price of oil, and the price of electricity does not rise casually. The process of the outward release of the on-wait consumer is the advent of retaliatory consumption.
Dong Yue said that from the perspective of the total amount of new energy vehicle development, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in passenger cars has now reached more than 15% from less than 3% in 2020. If the world situation is removed, oil prices have risen sharply, and new energy materials have risen sharply, and this year's new energy vehicles are expected to account for more than 20% of passenger car sales. It is expected to reach a proportion of about 35% in 2023, or even higher. It is expected that the new energy vehicle market will always be in a high-speed development trend.