Author 丨 Song Doudou
Editor 丨 Zhang Ruosi
On the afternoon of March 17, a few hours before the oil price began a new round of price increases, Wang Qiang (pseudonym) spent more than 400 pieces to fill the fuel tank and planned to replace the next 10 kilometers of commuting with an electric bicycle; on March 19, Cheng Ming (pseudonym) added 200 yuan of No. 95 gasoline as usual, and found that the hands on the fuel gauge were three less scales than before...
The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in the cost of fuel vehicle owners, "92 full of debts, 95 full of bankruptcy, 98 full of three generations of repayment" Ridicule flooded the social platform, but also dissuaded many fuel car holders to buy, "turning" to join the pure electric vehicle camp.
However, the reality is very bone, the price of raw materials has risen all the way to make it difficult for electric vehicles to stand alone, in a week or so, including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, Weima, zero run, Euler, etc., many new energy car companies have to increase prices, and some car companies have already raised prices twice or even three times.
Behind the game between affordable and unaffordable fuel vehicles and affordable and unaffordable electric vehicles, the high cost caused by chip shortages and rising raw material prices is like a butterfly flapping its wings, stirring up a pool of "ripples" in the automobile market.
Nine new energy vehicle companies announced price increases in a week
According to the incomplete statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, in less than a week from March 15 to 20, Tesla, BYD, Chery New Energy, Xiaopeng Automobile, Nezha Automobile, Zero Running Car, Geometric Automobile, Weima Automobile, Great Wall Euler and other 9 car companies have increased prices one after another, of which many car companies have increased prices twice or even three times, with the highest increase of more than 30,000 yuan.
On March 17, a screenshot of the price increase of the entire Series of Xiaopeng Automobile was circulated online, showing that "the price of the No. 21 series of models increased, the P7 increased by 20,000, and the P5 and G3i rose by 10,000." Today, everyone will stop and make full efforts to invite customers, only in the form of telephone notifications, not allowed to notify customers in text form, or send a circle of friends. ”
At that time, the relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng Automobile said that "there is no relevant information at present", but a Salesman of Xiaopeng Automobile in Guangzhou told 21st Century Economic Herald that "there is indeed a matter".
Less than a day later, on March 18, Xiaopeng Automobile officially announced a price increase, saying that the price of its products will be raised from 10,100 yuan to 20,000 yuan before subsidies, and the price adjustment will take effect from 00:00 on March 21. Today (March 21), Xiaopeng Motors' three new prices for the P7, P5 and G3i on sale were released, and the price increase after subsidies was 10,100-32,600 yuan, of which the price increase of 670E and 670E+ of Xiaopeng P7 exceeded 30,000.
On the same day as Xiaopeng Motors, geometric cars and zero-run cars joined the price increase army. The price of some of the former's products will be raised by 3,000-7,000 yuan, the latter is mainly for the zero-run C11 price adjustment, the price of the zero-run C11 luxury version and the premium version model will increase by 20,000 yuan respectively, and the performance version model will increase by 30,000 yuan, becoming the new energy model with the highest single increase.
"There is no change in this price adjustment zero run T03, but it is likely that the price will rise after that, and it is necessary to buy it as soon as possible." A salesman told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
According to the data, since entering March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving more than 40 models of new car-making forces, Chinese brands, joint venture brands, and imported brands, with price increases ranging from 1% to 10%. Among them, Tesla has the highest price increase frequency, with three price increases in 8 days.
In addition, BYD (raised 3,000-6,000 yuan, the same below), Nezha Automobile (3,000-5,000 yuan), WM Automobile (7,000-26,000 yuan) and Chery New Energy (3,000-6,000 yuan) have all raised the prices of some of its models to varying degrees.
According to the price adjustment details shown to reporters by Chery New Energy sales staff, in addition to the unchanged price of the 120km pudding model, the price of the other two models has increased by 3100 yuan, and the adjusted guidance price is 299-47,000 yuan; the price of Chery Small Ant is raised by 3000-4100 yuan, and the adjusted price is 699-8900 yuan.
It is worth noting that the Euler Good Cat (including the GT version), which raised the price once in early March, once again officially announced the price increase, and the comprehensive guidance price of the 2022 Euler Good Cat (including the GT version) after the price subsidy of all models ranged from 6,000-7,000 yuan, and the price has increased by about 20,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model.
In fact, at present, in addition to the above-mentioned car companies that have officially announced price adjustments, there are also many car companies that are "eager to move".
21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from the sales staff of a number of car companies that the 2021 Volkswagen ID.3 will not increase in price and there will be current cars and cash discounts, but the 2022 models will increase in price, and there is no current car; the price of all models of Jihu will be increased, and the sales staff of Jihu revealed that it will raise 5400 yuan; Weilai Automobile, Ideal Automobile and Gaohe Automobile will not increase in price.
The cost of the industrial chain has increased
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the new energy vehicle companies followed the rise, which is a new round of price increases after the collective price increase in January 2022, and the price increase models are currently mainly concentrated in the range of more than 100,000 yuan. Compared with the january price increase of car companies attributed to "the impact of the decline of new energy subsidies", many car companies emphasized the factor of "being affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices" in the price increase notes.
"In 2021, the production and sales scale of New Energy Vehicles in China showed rapid growth, and in 2022, the entire industry set a higher sales target of 5 million vehicles, which boosted the pursuit of upstream raw materials." On March 21, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "The rise in raw material prices has led to greater cost pressure on power battery companies, which has been further transmitted to the production and sales of complete vehicles, resulting in price adjustments by OEMs." ”
In fact, since last year, the rise in raw material prices has stirred the sensitive nerves of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of automobiles. The price of upstream raw materials has risen further, and the pressure of the industrial chain has been transmitted to the downstream. Taking the core components of new energy vehicles power batteries as an example, the price of lithium carbonate, an important raw material, was quoted last week at an average price of about 48-522,000 yuan / ton, and in early January last year, the quotation of the raw material was still around 62,000-67,000 yuan / ton.
In addition, the key metal resources of power batteries, nickel and cobalt, have also increased in price significantly, from the beginning of January 2020 to the middle of January 2022, the increase in battery-grade cobalt reached 119%. Affected by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of nickel has soared. According to CCTV financial reports, due to the price change of nickel sulfate, the price of ternary materials rose by 160,000-250,000 yuan per ton, correspondingly, the price of ternary lithium batteries per kWh rose by 31-47 yuan, taking the 70kWh electric vehicle as an example, the recent battery cost of an electric vehicle rose by 2000 yuan -3300 yuan.
Tianfeng Securities also made a calculation, when the nickel price is 50,000 US dollars / ton, the single cost of Model 3 (76.8 kWh electricity) will rise by 10,500 yuan, Xiaopeng P7 (80.87 kWh electricity) will rise by 11,000 yuan, and Weilai EC6 (70 kWh electricity) will rise by 0.95 million yuan, and the cost of bicycles in these three models will rise by about 10,000 yuan. If the nickel price reaches 100,000 US dollars / ton, the cost of Model 3 bicycles will rise by nearly 28,000 yuan, Xiaopeng P7 will rise by nearly 30,000 yuan, and Weilai EC6 will rise by more than 25,000 yuan.
Under the pressure of supply chain costs, some hot-selling models have to suspend orders, especially mini cars with weak bargaining power, the most typical of which is the Great Wall Euler black cat and white cat to stop taking orders. According to Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, after the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, the loss of black cats alone exceeded 10,000 yuan. In addition, the 21st Century Business Herald previously learned that the lowest version of the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV (priced at 28,800) is no longer accepting new orders, and the sales staff said that it is "not clear at present" when to produce the car.
Chen Shihua believes that the current increase in raw material prices has been separated from the level of supply and demand changes, and there are important factors of artificial speculation. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Federation of Passenger Vehicles, said that the price increase of raw materials for new energy vehicles is a cyclical behavior, and the general increase in vehicle prices is also a reflection of the rise in raw material prices.
In addition to the pressure on power batteries and car companies caused by the rise in raw material prices, the current lack of cores is not optimistic. A number of auto industry insiders said that the current chip shortage is still serious, and the chip supply situation in the fourth quarter of 2021 has eased compared with the third quarter, but compared with the fourth quarter, there has been no significant relief at this stage.
At the same time, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated the global chip shortage, and it is reported that two Ukrainian neon suppliers, which currently account for about half of the world's neon gas production, have interrupted production, and neon gas is a key raw material for making chips. In addition, the March 16 earthquake in Japan may further exacerbate the shortage of chip supply, and the factories of many well-known chip manufacturers such as Renesas Electronics and Sony will be affected.
"At present, global car companies are facing a lot of pressure on the lack of cores, on the one hand, the production capacity of global chip resources is limited, and the production capacity is not easy to improve; on the other hand, unexpected situations such as earthquakes will further aggravate the shortage of chips." In addition, with the gradual improvement of foreign epidemic prevention and control, the demand for chips by foreign enterprises has increased, exacerbating the tight supply of domestic chips. Chen Shihua pointed out.
Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd., pointed out in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the supply of chips in 2022 is still very tight, and it will certainly not be able to meet all the needs of OEMs, and this year's automobile production will also be largely subject to chip supply. "Now there is a certain amount of inflation in the world, the price of raw materials has increased greatly, and the price of chips has also increased significantly, so the automotive industry as a whole is in a state of 'sharp increase in costs', and the supply chain side is already jointly discussing countermeasures."
A car company insider told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "Raw material price increases and chip shortages have caused a certain impact on production and operation, we are coordinating chip resources in many ways, and promoting the development of cost reduction work, giving priority to ensuring the production capacity and supply of hot-selling models." ”
The impact of price increases on the new energy market is relatively controllable
In the face of the price increase boom, Zhu Yulong, an expert in the automotive industry, said that this year is not a question of price increases or price increases, and who can survive smoothly after price increases. "The price increase has led to the decline of orders and sales, but the battery cannot be obtained and the supply is not available and is eliminated in all aspects." At present, it seems that it is a great challenge for the capital reserves of car companies. The development window of emerging pure electric vehicle companies is about to close. ”
In fact, for new energy vehicle companies, increasing market share is their short-term goal, although the current price increase of car companies is lower than the cost increase, and the price increase strategy also lags behind the cost increase, but under the wave of new energy vehicles, price increases may become the choice of more car companies. Industry insiders pointed out that if the price of raw materials is still at a high level in the short term and does not fall, more and more car companies will join the team of price increases in the future.
It is worth mentioning that the double pressure of rising raw material prices and chip shortages, as well as the huge demand on the market side, is delaying the pace of delivery of new cars by car companies. Tesla China's official website shows that ordering Tesla-related models now is expected to be at least until June, with the Model 3 expected delivery date in 16-20 weeks and the Model Y expected delivery date in 10-20 weeks.
"Due to the large number of orders and tight supply chains, the delivery time of the 500km endurance version of the Aeon V Plus takes two to three months, and the delivery time of the 600 and 700km endurance versions takes 5-6 months." A salesperson of GAC Aean told reporters.
Xiaopeng a salesman said that the delivery time of the 480km endurance version of the Xiaopeng P7 changed from 7-8 weeks to 10-11 weeks, and the 670km endurance version took longer.
The bydd DM-i model that is hot on the market is also a car is difficult to find, Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i two models need 3-4 months to pick up the car, Tang DM-i delivery cycle needs at least 1-2 months.
However, the industry believes that the impact of cost pressures such as the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles and the rise in resource prices is still relatively controllable on the new energy market. If the price of raw materials returns to the normal price range in the future, the price of new energy vehicles will also decline to a certain extent, but the specific time is not yet known.
"Rising new energy vehicle prices will hurt consumers' enthusiasm for buying in the short term, but China's diversified market for new energy vehicles will offset this unfavorable phenomenon." Cui Dongshu said that with the recovery of the supply environment at the industrial end of raw materials, to a certain extent, it will also alleviate the unfavorable factors of price increases, and the phenomenon of rising prices in the terminal sales market caused by the rise of new energy raw materials should be objectively and rationally viewed, and it is expected that the second half of this year may return to the normal price range.
Chen Shihua believes that "at present, the national level has begun to attach great importance to the rise in raw material prices, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration of Market Supervision and other departments have carried out investigations, and the next step will be to crack down on unfair competition behaviors such as hoarding goods and price gouging to ensure the supply and price stability of the new energy automobile industry." ”
At the same time, he is optimistic about the goal of producing and selling 5 million units in China's new energy vehicle market in 2022. "Although this target is relatively high relative to 2021 growth, the absolute volume is not very large. At present, car companies have accelerated the transformation to new energy vehicles and have explored certain doorways. ”
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out in the research report that in the context of the continuous high demand for terminal new energy, with the gradual easing of the supply of automotive chips on the supply side, the successive launch of heavy models by traditional car companies and new forces, and the further improvement of the new energy driving experience under the background of intelligence, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China are still expected to reach 5.5 million units in 2022, continuing to maintain more than 50% growth.
Editor of this issue is Feng Zhanpeng
