summary:
In February, domestic new energy vehicle sales increased by 1.8 times year-on-year, exceeding market expectations
In February, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were not weak in the off-season, and the penetration rate in the United States had a large room for improvement
The installed share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased to 56.9%, and the low-cost advantage has helped to create explosive models
First, the new energy automobile industry boom analysis
(1) Sales of new energy vehicles in February increased by 1.8 times year-on-year, exceeding market expectations
Sales of new energy vehicles in February were 334,000 units, up 184.3% year-on-year (previously 140%) to exceed market expectations. Previously, the market expected that new energy vehicles will slow down significantly after experiencing rapid growth in 2021, and sales in the past two months have been better than market expectations, which is expected to maintain a high boom.
(2) In February, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were not weak in the off-season, and the penetration rate in the United States had a large room for improvement
According to the official websites of various governments, the number of new energy vehicles registered in eight European countries in February was 118,000 units, an increase of 26% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 19.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. According to Marklines, U.S. new energy vehicle sales in February were 70,000 units, up 78.0% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 6.6%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. Considering that there is still room for growth in European demand, the United States has begun to exert efforts, and the foreign new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a high boom.
(3) The installed share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased to 56.9%, and the low-cost advantage will help create explosive models
In 2022, lithium iron phosphate will create more explosive models with low cost advantages. In February, Hongguang MINI EV sold 26,116 units, maintaining the first sales volume, followed by BYD Qin and BYD Song with 24,501 and 22,754 vehicles, respectively. More than half of the lithium iron phosphate models in the top ten sales lists. In February, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries increased by 76% (previous value 35%) and 247% (previous value 173%) respectively year-on-year, and the market share of lithium iron phosphate installed capacity in the month was 56.9% (previous value 54.8%), showing a continuous upward trend.
Industry opportunities to pay attention to: (1) in the context of industry sales exceeded expectations, car companies with stronger sales growth are more benefited; (2) under the background of high installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate and increased market share, power battery companies with global competitiveness in this technology are expected to benefit more.
Risk warning: The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the price of midstream has fallen more than expected.