Source: Visual China
Author 丨Lius
Editor 丨 Kang Xiao
Produced by 丨Shenwang Tencent News Xiaoman Studio
If it were not for the collective Jedi counterattack of Chinese stocks yesterday, Duan Yongping would have been labeled "leek" by his huge retail investment fan base.
The founder of Xiaobawang, the founder of BBK, the co-founder of VO, and a famous investor, Duan Yongping has too much aura on him, but he encountered Waterloo when he bottomed out Chinese stocks this year.
In the past few months, when Chinese stocks have been sold off, Duan Yongping has bought in the opposite direction. At noon on March 14, Duan Yongping updated two updates in succession, saying that "this Friday there was a batch of 145 apple put expiry, sold a long time ago." This money can be considered to put half on Tencent. On the morning of the 15th, Duan Yongping sent another dynamic saying, "Tomorrow I am ready to take the BROWNB (Berkshire) to change points, and I will not wait." ”
This is not the first time he has copied Tencent. As early as 2018, when the game industry was at a low ebb, Duan Yongping had shot, and in the following years, Tencent has been one of the stocks he pays the most attention to in addition to Apple, Berkshire, and Maotai.
Earlier this year, Duan Yongping repeatedly published the status, saying, "I plan to add a warehouse (Tencent) every 10%", "I know few companies, and Tencent is indeed top in the good companies I can understand in Hong Kong stocks", "From the perspective of the next 10 years or more, holding Tencent now should be more cost-effective than putting money in the bank, but you are likely to find better opportunities."
Duan Yongping spent tens of millions of dollars to buy Tencent during three stock price adjustments last year. The first time was to buy Tencent's US stocks on August 4, corresponding to Hong Kong stocks at HK$440 to HK$460; the second time on August 18, the price was 406 to 437 Hong Kong dollars; the third time, on December 17, it bought again at 425 to 434 Hong Kong.
Basically, the timing of Duan Yongping's position in Tencent was between 430 and 460 Hong Kong dollars, but since this year, Tencent's stock price has been declining all the way, and as it fell below 300 Hong Kong dollars on March 15, Duan Yongping was ridiculed as "copied into a leek".
However, Tencent rebounded 23% yesterday after receiving good news in the capital market, and today's opening rose again to 401 Hong Kong dollars per share.
Duan Yongping has also always held Pinduoduo, because of the founder Huang Zheng's personal personal relationship, which is also one of the few investments he has participated in when he was in the primary market.
On December 2 last year, he posted, "From more than 200 to now, I don't have any idea of buying more, because I have never understood the business model." But it has not been sold (since Huang Zheng said not to sell for three years, I will not sell for three years), which is probably the meaning of venture capital? Pinduoduo closed at $59.28 on the day.
Then, on December 8, Duan Youping posted that he would buy, "Although I still can't understand its business model, I think their support for agricultural products is still very meaningful." Ready to venture again! (Selling point put, don't follow suit) This time the cost is much higher than the first time (if it is traded tomorrow). The closing price of Pinduoduo on the day was $62.43.
But Duan Yongping also copied it on the mountainside. On March 15, Pinduoduo fell to a minimum of $23.2 / share, and after a rebound on the 17th, the US stock market closed at $42.62 / share.
China's capital market ushered in a turnaround yesterday. The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting and proposed to actively introduce policies favorable to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies; all policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance.
Stimulated by the good news, Hong Kong stocks staged a retaliatory rally yesterday afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 9.08% and returning above 20,000 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up more than 22%, the largest intraday gain since the index was launched.
Technology stocks and auto stocks rose sharply, with Bilibili up about 41%, JD.com up about 36%, Kuaishou up nearly 35%, Meituan up more than 32%, Tencent up more than 23%, Alibaba up more than 27%, Ideal Up about 35%, and Xiaopeng Up about 33%. Medical stocks rose sharply, with Hygea Medical up more than 48%.
Duan Yongping joked on the snowball, "Rise and fall as fast as it can!" Could it be that I single-handedly pulled the stock market up? ”
In terms of U.S. stocks, coupled with the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike boots, it rose sharply after a brief decline at the opening last night, with the Dow closing up 1.55% at 34063.10 points; the S&P 500 up 2.24% at 4357.86 points; and the Nasdaq Composite up 3.77% at 13436.55 points.
Chinese stocks rebounded significantly, With Kingsoft Cloud up 72.27%, Huanju up 66.35%, Shell up 64.35%, Douyu up 60.56%, Pinduoduo up 56.06%, iQiyi up 49.76%, Bilibili up 47.56%, JD.com up 39.36%, Baidu up 39.2%, Alibaba up 36.65%; in terms of new energy vehicles, Weilai Automobile rose 25.59%, Xiaopeng Automobile rose 29.74%, and Ideal Auto rose 31.9%.
Can Duan Yongping once again verify his investment logic?
Looking back at its investment history, in 2001, netease made more than 100 times; in 2003, it bought the American trailer rental company UHAL and earned 20 times; in 2004 and 2005, it bought Skyworth, Vanke earned 5 and 6 times; in 2011, it repositioned Apple and in 2014, it has held Moutai so far; since 2015, it has turned to the technology Internet and bought Tencent, Facebook, and Pinduoduo.
On the investment community snowball, Duan Yongping has nearly 600,000 fans. He will often update the status, such as how many Moutai and Apple stocks he bought, and he also likes to interact with fans and answer their questions. He also shares his investment thinking, which is regarded by some investors as a treasure book.
Among the fans, there are many retail investors who have been influenced by it to copy Chinese stocks such as Tencent.
From the founder of Xiao bawang and BBK to the "godfather of investment", Duan Yongping has been deeply influenced by buffett and Munger's value investment philosophy along the way. He values the business model and the moat; believes that buying stocks is buying the company, and buying the company is buying the company's future cash flow discount; believing that companies with good long-term profits and net cash flow will sooner or later keep up with the stock price; not doing things that they don't understand, not doing short, not borrowing money are listed on the Stop Doing List.
There is no investment institution or family office behind it, and "big retail investor" Duan Yongping shows real personal strength. From his past investment cases and thoughts, we can get a glimpse of what the essence of investment is in his understanding system.
Serial Entrepreneur to "Godfather of Investment"
To some extent, if there is no experience of continuous entrepreneurship in the past, there is no Duan Yongping's later "godfather of investment".
Duan Yongping once recalled that one of the most important reasons for understanding and restocking apples in 2011 was that OPPO and Apple had many of the same genes. "One of the things I love about Apple's business model comes from my experience in consumer electronics for more than 20 years, a business model I've always dreamed of but seemed difficult to achieve."
In 1988, at the age of 27, Duan Yongping graduated from the Department of Economics of Chinese University, turned south and entered the electronic equipment factory of Yihua Group in Zhongshan City, Guangzhou as a factory director. What awaits him is a mess with a loss of 2 million. The addition of Duan Yongping completely changed the fate of this small factory, and then it transformed into a well-known "little bully" creator for a long time, with an output value of more than 1 billion. A classic case of the advertising industry that was later widely disseminated is that Duan Yongping put the advertisement into the prime time of CCTV in 1993, invited the kung fu superstar Jackie Chan to be the spokesperson, and the sentence "Wangzi Jackie Chan Xiao Bawang" made Xiao Bawang quickly spread all over China.
It was also during this time that Duan Yongping began to show his vision and ability that was different from ordinary people.
After Xiao Bawang, Duan Yongping created backgammon in 1995, making it a famous brand in China's early cordless telephones, VCDs, and educational electronic products.
Four years later, Duan Yongping decided to split the BBK business into shares, so that everyone could develop independently. Later, Chen Yongming was responsible for OPPO, Shen Wei was responsible for vivo, and the original business of BBK was taken over by Jin Zhijiang, and Duan Yongping turned to the backstage to become the chairman of BBK.
These people, and later Huang Zheng, the founder of Pinduoduo, were regarded as Duan Yongping's "disciples". They played a crucial role in the development and transformation of the mobile Internet subdivision industry in the following decades.
With "clear vision and ability to innovate", Duan Yongping was named one of Asia's 20 millennial industry leaders in business and finance by Asia Weekly in 1999.
"Duan Feit" and value investment
After demonstrating his innate entrepreneurial prowess, Duan Yongping moved to the United States in 2000, and under the influence of the investment boom there, he decided to try something new in the field of investment.
To this day, Duan Yongping is greatly influenced by Buffett, and before he made a move, he read a large number of Buffett shareholder letters, his usual remarks, and carefully read Munger's "Poor Charlie's Treasure Book".
Duan Yongping's investment style is in line with Buffett's value investment philosophy, and he knows that "running a business and investing are the same, and it is important to make fewer mistakes." In the Chinese investment circles on Wall Street, some people even secretly call him "Duan Feite".
The intersection of the two's investment trajectories began in 2006 when Duan Yongping spent $620,000 to become the first Chinese businessman to shoot Buffett's lunch. At that time, Duan Yongping also brought a young man. Nine years later, this young man founded Pinduoduo, which is comparable to e-commerce giant Ali, and was listed in less than three years, with a value of up to 135 billion, he is Huang Zheng.
Looking back, this meeting had a profound impact on Duan Yongping's later investment path.
Duan Yongping said that since meeting Buffett, his chances of making mistakes have dropped significantly. And the hundreds of millions of dollars lost in the investment, each of which is against Buffett's teachings.
The decision to reload Apple also benefited from Buffett's teachings. When Duan Yongping first bought in 2011, Apple's market value was only $300 billion, and now it has reached $2.5 trillion.
Value investing is buying shares of valuable companies and holding them for a long time. This requires careful research and accurate analysis before choosing an investment target before making a large purchase. Buffett once told Duan Yongping that there are only 20 chances worth shooting in a person's life, so be patient and look for real good opportunities.
Duan Yongping became famous in the second year of investment.
A classic case widely circulated in the investment circle is that at the end of 2001, during the trough of the US capital market, Duan Yongping bought 2.05 million shares of NetEase at a price of 0.8 to 1 US dollars, when he put all the living money in hand and made 100 times when he left the market.
In June 2000, NetEase was listed on the NASDAQ in the United States, but it coincided with the bursting of the Internet bubble in the United States, and NetEase's stock price fell from $15 at the time of listing to less than $1, and even faced a delisting crisis. At that time, Ding Lei once wanted to sell NetEase, but was finally persuaded by Duan Yongping.
Duan Yongping, who started as a game console, likes to play games, and he also knows more about the gameplay of the Chinese game industry than American investors, and he knows more about the future opportunities of this industry, and even considered doing online games during the Xiaobawang period.
He believes that NetEase's investment opportunities are unattainable, and "if you can't understand and understand it well, even if you buy it, it's difficult to hold it." ”
By October 2003, NetEase's stock price had soared to $70, and Duan Yongping's stock had risen 70 times. Also this year, Duan Yongping's value reached 1 billion yuan, ranking 71st in the Forbes rich list.
Later, Ding Lei personally supervised the development of "Journey to the West 2", reversed the situation of NetEase, and finally achieved a reversal, and the game became an important pillar of NetEase's revenue.
Duan Yongping's investment in Moutai is also based on optimism about its business model.
He began to pay attention to Moutai in 2010 and has held it for many years since. Yongping also said in 2019, "Even if you buy at the current price, it should be at least better than if you put your money in the bank 10 years later." ”
In 2013, Moutai encountered restrictions on sangong consumption, which accounted for 40% of the overall business volume. However, Duan Yongping believes that Moutai and corruption are not directly related, and reducing the consumption of public funds will indeed reduce a lot of waste, which will affect Moutai sales in the short term.
"Public money consumption is not the big head of Moutai. Many people like Maotai because it is good wine, and people who like to drink will still like to drink, but there are fewer opportunities to drink with public funds. If Moutai sales decline in the short term, then the production of vintage wine can be increased? Moutai is a rare business model that is in short supply and not afraid of inventory. ”
After the stock market crash in 2013, Moutai really came out of the independent market and rode out of the dust.
Do not short, No margin
Compared with Buffett's successful experience, Duan Yongping is more concerned about how he makes mistakes.
"What is wrong we can avoid, knowing that it is wrong, you do not do it." We do business like the same thing, called Do right thing, do things right. "The principle is not to do what you don't understand, don't go short, don't borrow money.
The "godfather of investment" also has moments of frustration.
In the early years, Duan Yongping ran to short Baidu, at first just playing, but then more and more investment, until finally was shorted by short squeeze(), all accounts added up to a loss of about 150 million to 200 million US dollars. The loss this time is not only money, the most unfortunate thing is that this mistake has consumed all the cash reserves, and the opportunity cost is huge.
Later, Duan Yongping reflected, "At that time, I did see something wrong with Baidu, in fact, Baidu also fell very low because of this thing later (if I could stay empty until then I could actually make a lot of money). "But it does ignore some important conditions that are beneficial to Baidu, such as the policy environment." All in all, short selling is speculation and I shouldn't do it.
After experiencing this investment failure, he really understood the investment principles that Buffett said.
Duan Yongping also often mentioned the "circle of ability", saying that people should do things within the circle of ability. Diligence and talent are actually not so important, and doing the right thing is the most important. "Looking back over the decades, you'll see a lot of 'smart' people who have achieved very little, probably because they probably didn't put their intelligence on doing the right thing."
Earlier this year, Duan Yongping showed interest in the anti-epidemic concept stock Moderna, but he said that this is not something in my circle of ability. "Small bets are pleasant, pushing myself down, hoping that within a year I can roughly understand the company." Most of those who have lost money for a long time in the stock market belong to people who do not know how big their circle of ability is.
In addition to shorting, in Duan Yongping's investment book, financing leverage is also excluded, and No margin (leverage) is a safe category. "Coming out of the mix always has to be repaid, and most of the money earned with martin ends up being returned." The bad thing is that many people still have to keep this book for a while. ”
Successful financing leverage operation, multiplied gains, it can even be addictive, once benefited from it, it is difficult to return to the idea of acting cautiously. And once the sharp fall triggers the warning line, it will face the risk of liquidation, making people destitute.
Some netizens turned out Munger's "100% certainty can use leverage" statement, Duan Yongping replied after seeing it, what should the psychological quality of investment do? It's not a matter of life. Munger may really have a good psychological quality, and legend has it that in the 70s, he lost most of his value within two years with margin, and "almost finished". So there is a saying that you only need to be rich once.
Timing is important, as is choosing when to leave.
Duan Yongping insisted that "a good company must be able to hold it." He says the best companies are those that never want to sell. Finding a few of these companies in a lifetime is difficult to underdevelop. But when the reason for buying disappears or changes dramatically, and when an outrageous price appears, he turns around and leaves.
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