Author | Liu Peng
Edit | Zheng Xuan
A few days ago, Geek Park threw the topic of "young people in the US stock market" to a daily active Stock Speculation WeChat group, like a stone sinking into the sea.
After a long time, someone coldly said, "I understand what does it mean to float?"
This sentence has expressed the voice of many retail investors, since the Spring Festival last year, "one sink to the end" is the most true portrayal of many US stocks. In the nine trading days from March 3 to March 15, China-wide Internet ETFs fell more than 25% and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 30%. Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Baidu and other well-known companies have hit record lows, and only after March 16 did they rebound.
We talked to a couple of young people who were investing in U.S. (Hong Kong) stocks, and they had different styles, some were "very new" rookies, and some had been holding positions for five or six years. Some prefer radical adventures, others are fans of the old school style... What they may have in common is that they were shocked by the turmoil, but still said that they were calm.
Alex, who has been speculating in the US stock market for 6 years, offers an interesting perspective that may be used to understand this: under extreme shocks, people will have a psychological/physiological "fight-or-flight response". Some fight, some flee, more people can do nothing.
Here's their story:
The third blowout in two years, I may not use leverage again
Dashen post-85 entrepreneur Internet employee
Three times in two years
I took a look at it today, and it was my 1967 day at Futu. In more than five years, I have always been an adventurist, having about three times of blowing up and using leverage.
In March, this time the Chinese stock plunged, and the data on all sides reflected its extreme side, in this extreme, I used a little three times the leverage to usher in the third blowout of the stock speculation career.
My position in the Hong Kong stock Tencent is about 60%, and about 20% is China Ruyi Pictures, which is the original Hengteng. There are also some positions that are Ali, Kuaishou and Baidu. Baidu and Kuaishou "hit the new" when basically trapped, Chinese Confucianism originally made a lot of money in the 2021 New Year, I was at ease, the result was waist cut, when I started ten yuan, now fell to two pieces. Then Tencent is such an extreme situation, and the position is out of control in the violent fluctuations.
In fact, I know that there are black swans, but I don't know that the black swans come in groups: for example, I know that there are geopolitical risks, the background of Sino-US confrontation, and I know the risks of the market, but I don't know that emergencies such as audit papers, Didi, antitrust, and war will come in a series.
I said to my friend, hey, it's all paper wealth, and I said oh I'm going to save money. In fact, it feels good, the mentality has not been greatly affected, and it is not the first time. Only this time, I will give myself a reminder: never allow another explosion, it is not too much.
As for the first two blowouts, it is also quite funny.
In March 2020, the U.S. stock market broke down three times, which was my first blow-up. Prior to this, the profitability of Our Hong Kong and US stocks was very good. At that time, I was under the impression that the loss was relatively large, when the heavy position was about 70%, and finally I was forced to sell part of it to close the position.
At that time, I really thought it was incredible, unheard of, why did there be such an extreme three circuit breakers? Then more is very regretful, very chagrin, why to be cut meat, I actually built a large number of positions to buy Futu when I was more than nine dollars, and then when I was about fourteen yuan, I was cut off about 40%, and then Futu has been rising very well. Fortunately, in my cornerstone investment, Futu has always been retained, and it can be regarded as recovering some losses. Of course, I also reflected and told myself that I should be disciplined in investing, but I was still not alert enough.
I joked with my friends at the time that the short thirty years that I had begun in this life were really witnessing history, and I knew that there was still new history to be refreshed.
The second time was because of a more extreme strategy. In July 2020, I shorted who to learn, about thirty yuan when I began to open a short position to learn from whom, add leverage, and then continue to increase positions. Because I never understood the company, and after some basic research, I was not optimistic. As a result, it broke through a hundred dollars at its peak, and then I blew up and cut about 50% of the position to close it. However, I also insisted on it later, so when the whole education industry finally exploded, I could still make some money by learning from whom, but it was not a big money.
This time I understood that even if I believe in my own analysis and judgment, I can't be the enemy of the trend, and one person can't defeat Wall Street. Even if it turns out that you are right in the end, you will also pay a dismal price, you see who to learn from in the end also fell back to one or two dollars, but at that time the market sentiment was bullish, there may be a big fund behind the long, what capital do you have to hedge the trend? Even Bill Hwang's tens of billions of dollars of institutions will blow up, right, and the market will give you a hard slap.
In retrospect, it was because my personality was also more radical, the so-called discipline, and I did not strictly abide by it when I blew up the position for the second time. Earlier I said that I am an optimistic risk-taker, others may bear 20% losses can not stand it, but my tolerance can even reach 80%. However, obviously it is possible to stop losses, from the strategy, you should first close part of the position, follow-up wait and see and then adjust the position, but I am "from the beginning to the end" encountered extreme situations to burst the position.
Occasionally, when reviewing, I will write about my own experience, and I will feel that at that time, alas... It's really about paying for your own arrogance.
The early years of stock speculation were too profitable, and the best time to buy a house was missed
Going back a few years, it is another kind of opposite "landscape", the market trend is very obvious, and then the bull market is a stock god.
Internet Chinese stocks have risen very well, and my compound yield should be three hundred percent, which is very, very impressive. Further on, 2015 was an A-share bull market, I was about 300,000 yuan of principal at that time, the highest was about 1.8 million, fell to 1.6 million I will all clear out, this money has become some of my subsequent stock market ammunition.
A particularly dramatic thing is that because the secondary market yield is so good, I missed the best time to buy a house and get on the bus in Guangzhou (note: "Dashen" is a Guangzhouer), and I didn't make up the ticket until the end of 2017, when the house price soared. It is also a loss, at that time, the house in a small area was not bought at the beginning of the year, and the price was basically double at the end of the year.
Of course, I am not too care, I am not a person who must have a house to have a sense of security, but I prefer freshness, I have lived in Hanoi in recent years, lived in Singapore, returned to Shanghai for two years, lived in Guangzhou for a long time, and came to Beijing.
I graduated in 2011, did two years of management consulting research, and have been in this industry since I entered the Internet in early 2013, and the so-called golden decade of mobile Internet has been experienced.
At that time, it was the tide of entrepreneurship, and any café on the entrepreneurial street could meet a bunch of entrepreneurs and investors. We made a stranger social software at that time, taking Momo as a competitor, of course, it is a pity, after taking the A round of financing, it died. However, this entrepreneurial experience made me have an understanding of investment, options, etc., and later entered the Internet factory, which is equivalent to learning while growing, summarizing some of my own investment ideas, slowly and small-scale to buy projects, play simulation disks, and gradually become a member of the vast sea of stocks.
My own strategy is value investment plus guerrilla warfare, I will have a few stocks as a cornerstone investment, in a cycle basically do not move it, and then high-growth stocks, will also chase some hot speculation, such as new energy up, I also want to go to the hustle and bustle. Basically, the positions are 80%, 90%, in fact, the (stock) position is too full, which is not right, more aggressive.
I only buy the industries and companies that I can understand, and then I will do my own investment research analysis, fundamental business model, user data, future industry prospects, etc., and then combine some of my own cognition to make some analysis and judgment on the basis of data.
The operation of one stock really makes me feel pretty cool: Lychee fm, I made a lot of money when I shorted it. I opened a short position in it for more than 7 dollars, 10 blocks, 14 blocks and constantly increased positions, and there was some rebound in the middle, but I insisted on not coming out, and then sold it when it was four dollars, and the return should be more than one hundred thousand dollars. The reason I was happy about this was not only that I made money, but also fully verified my previous fundamental analysis of it.
Another time was very exciting, that is, at the right time at the right price to sell TME (Tencent Music) stock, I was lucky to sell a lot of TME at the peak of the 30-32 US dollar stock price, to help me close the previous blow-up position, back a big wave of blood. Looking back, bill Hwang held a lot of TME when he blew up last year, which was the rest of his life, thrilling.
Value investing? The essence is still to have enough money
I often review it myself, and at best I don't feel like a god, and at worst, I don't have a mental explosion. To put it bluntly, I should still have seven figures on my book, even if it is all zero, it will not have much impact on my life.
This money is generally investment money, I am more radical, I pay tuition for my own cognition, but I can clearly carry my own pounds and a few pairs, will not go to the house or something, this is the principle. At the same time, I am more convinced that my analysis of fundamentals is more solid, whether it is Futu, Tencent Music or who I learn from, the results have proved my judgment.
Recently, I looked at the view of a professional investor and agreed: the short term is definitely optimistic, the medium term is pessimistic, and then the long term is also optimistic.
Short-term optimism is that stocks have fallen by 70%, 80%, or even 90%, there will definitely be a short-term rebound, which is a normal market cycle; there are still many potential uncertainties in the medium term, so I will not buy Chinese stocks in the medium term, if the situation does not improve, I may dispose of Chinese stocks at the right time in the future; that long-term so-called five years, ten years, I think there will still be some good companies in China.
I may not use leverage again in the future, use options instead of leverage, I really don't have enough knowledge of the risk of leverage. Seriously, if I hadn't used leverage at all in previous years, I would have made a lot of money by now. Without leverage, Tencent fell to two hundred, one hundred I don't care, the book surplus is just. But after you use the leverage, in the extreme case, it is a double shock, not if you want to lie flat, you can lie flat.
Finally, back to the value investing thing. For a long time in China, many people were superstitious about value investment, and they were like Buffett and Duan Yongping (Duan Yongping will also lose a lot in Tencent this time). However, value investment is really not suitable for everyone, especially retail investors, you see that the advocates of value investment may be professional investors, or there are large institutions behind them, and their funds are much more than those of us retail investors.
The essence of investment is money, and the essence of value investment is to have enough money. As Duan Yongping said, if you have money, you can constantly increase your position when it is low. Internet journalists don't like to write about investors going through the cycle, and you can't cross the cycle if you don't have enough money.
Ten years later, the stock-trading version of me will definitely be better
Evy 95 post-95 overseas Internet factory employees
It's so easy to make money, I'm too smart
In February last year, I still thought I was smart – I started trading stocks and rose by 50 percent, so it was easy to make money. Soon, as the waterfall went down, I found that I could never go back.
Now it seems that it is still too young to enter before the peak of the rise, and then there is a long downhill road.
I am a very new novice, last January and February Kuaishou is not going to go public, in order to play new on the rush to open an account. As a result, the money was successfully transferred in, but the signature was not hit. I don't know much about most of the companies in Hong Kong stocks, so I simply converted the money in my account into DOLLARs to buy U.S. stocks, about 100,000 yuan, and I work on the Internet myself.
Apple, Facebook, Tencent, TSMC and other good fundamentals, high stability, in addition to I heavily invest in the relatively well-known high-growth stocks, such as the game development engine tool Unity, may not be so well-known, but they account for 60% or 70% of the game development engine market share, revenue is also good.
I often read reports on technology companies, including related books, as well as the entrepreneurial experience of some companies in Silicon Valley, when I first entered the stock market, I was reading Howard Marx's "The Most Important Thing to Invest", and I also read some of Buffett's investment ideas, so I was more inclined to long-term value investment.
Specific strategy? Strictly speaking, there is no strategy. I rarely study the K line and the like, will look at the financial report, when buying Weilai will look at the financial report, Tencent did not look, as we all know is a good target, when the price is low, buy a little. Bought BYD because Buffett bought it and followed the trend.
At first, I felt a bit like playing a game, buying low and selling high on a simulated disk, with a sense of pleasure. I read an article in which the best performers return on average each year, which is between 10% and 15%. I thought how could it be so little? So how do you make money?
So that time was very quick to make a profit, buy any stock recommended by others, and the overall risk of holding positions was relatively high, because the heavy positions were all growth stocks - originally it was not particularly heavy, but then the Chinese stocks Bought all fell, and I watched the proportion of positions in other stocks getting higher and higher, and now it has exceeded 70%.
Now after this round of big falls, I find that 10%-15% is really a long-term summary of the law, you are not superhuman, it is impossible to exceed this range too much.
I lost, but also got stronger
Friends said that those days were very miserable, and I didn't pay much attention at that time. Just looked at it, the loss of 47%, it is indeed quite a lot, and it may be the most down since I entered the market.
Fog core technology fell the most fiercely, when I bought more than 20 pieces, the highest rise is 20% - 30%, the result of the introduction of the e-cigarette policy, the stock price is like a waterfall, now two dollars can not arrive. I sold some before, and there was a little left, because I was afraid that after selling, its stock price would go back.
I actually wanted to buy at a low price, but the position was too heavy, and I didn't know if it would continue to fall later, so I didn't operate. The stock market rebounded the next day and I regretted it.
Recently there was a more thrilling, when a number of Chinese Internet companies APP was blocked, one of them fell by 89% on the day, I checked its local revenue, very little, should not have much impact, just read the bottom, and then rose a lot. Before the financial report, I asked my friends in the industry about the general data, which may be lower than expected, I sold some, and after the financial report was issued, the stock price fell sharply, and it was a fluke to escape a disaster.
Many of the philosophies of the stock market are actually very similar to life, and the more you dig into the research, you will find that it can actually confirm a lot of things that happen in your life, and then learn to look at some things with a long-term perspective.
I read my own experience, what I learned from investment is that on the one hand, I have little experience, more impetuous and impatient, too much pursuit of short-term returns; there is a lack of a global view, focusing on the local (company fundamentals) and ignoring some macro factors, such as international, political and other macro risks.
Can you understand these principles without speculating in stocks? I don't think so. You've read a lot of books and listened to a lot of other people's experiences, but if you haven't experienced it yourself—for example, if you haven't experienced a situation where you've lost a lot of money, and you'll never get a sense of what the volatility of this market looks like—you may not have such a deep understanding.
It's better to step on a pit now than to step on a pit after thirty or forty years old
My friend says I'm "as steady as an old dog" because I rarely hesitate to do things.
But sometimes it is really itchy that can't be controlled, such as wanting to do some micro-operations when it rises too much or falls too hard, sometimes it can't help but buy at a price that is not very good, and it is easy to be attracted by very risky projects such as cryptocurrencies... What satisfies me may be that kind of pleasure.
Before, I was blinded by the mentality of wanting to make quick money, not enough to sink my heart, and now that I have a reverence for the market, I will not be so sloppy in the future. I think that in the future, I will be more mature in my mentality and remain patient when I add positions, otherwise I will not be able to wait for the ideal price in my mind. When operating in the short term, control your own rhythm and can only allow some operations on a company of up to two companies.
Of course, if I hadn't tried these things, I wouldn't have lost so much money, but I might still have this problem later. It is that this pit will be stepped on sooner or later, but it is only a matter of time sooner or later, I stepped on this pit earlier, and I will probably understand what things cannot be touched later.
Compared to those well-known investors, the kind of people who have lost eight figures, I feel that I am fine. Putting all the money in can also limit my own consumption, anyway, I think that when I first enter the market, I will lose a sum of money, which is a lesson for me.
I might have learned this lesson early on with a relatively large percentage of money, say I lost fifty or sixty percent, than if I were in my thirties or forties, making a bad decision, and then losing hundreds of thousands. The sooner you start doing this, the longer you experience this market, the more your decision-making skills will be exercised. As for the money, sooner or later it will be earned back.
In short, I felt like I was too young and the time to enter the market was too short. Very few people make the right decisions at a very young age. But ten years later, the stock speculation version of me must be better than the non-stock speculation version of me, I have a better life, I am confident.
Lying flat is really important
Wen Ze is a 34-year-old media person
A day's floating loss is more than 400,000
On March 14, the Chinese stock market fell sharply, many people said what bloody rain and wind, I also lost sixty or seventy thousand US dollars, converted into more than 400,000 yuan, although a little unexpected, but I can not afford any waves in my heart - fell "hemp", I also lay flat.
In fact, as early as February last year, Chinese stocks have basically fallen all the way, and most of my losses have occurred in this year or so.
I was very impressed, in February the US debt continued to rise caused the entire US stock market to plummet, that night I lost 300,000 yuan, at that time was a moment of pain, but also a little overwhelmed, think it does not matter, before there was also the next day and back to the situation, this time is no different.
After a few days of continuous decline, I began to be a little worried, and then fell, the account has shrunk significantly, all of a sudden more than a hundred thousand dollars are gone, and it has become another mentality - unwilling. After all, everyone says that the US stock market has been rising in the past decade. But I overlooked the problem that I bought mostly Chinese stocks, and the policy, market environment and U.S. companies were very different, it was just listed in the United States.
The result was obvious, never went back, and that was a culmination. Looking back, snowball was already warning you, but you'd still be confused by the money-making effect.
In fact, there was a sharp decline in the middle, which should have been last autumn, when I had some wavering and directly cleared the position. Originally not fried, at that time wanted to buy a house, and then I discussed with my daughter-in-law, she asked me to look at it for a long time, I said that long-term optimism, about five years and ten years is no problem, or a good way to add value. She said let it go, anyway, it didn't need it, and later we didn't use this money to buy a house.
A few days after the clearance, I went back in, and if you let me choose now, I will definitely not enter, right. I changed the strategy, Google Amazon these are still very stable, just bought a large position to the United States companies, NVIDIA, Tesla, Microsoft have bought some, accounting for about 70%. Chinese stocks have not given up, with the remaining share allocation, mainly still have a glimmer of hope, one is to feel that the company is really good, at this price is also very undervalued, with a bottom-reading mentality; in addition, I think that once the Sino-US relations ease policy changes, the suppression of valuation factors will disappear, and the stock prices of these stocks will rise.
However, it still fell until after the meeting of the Financial Commission in March this year (the Financial Commission of the State Council met on March 16 to study the current situation and maintain the stable development of the capital market) there was a clear rebound, and even so, I still lost 60% compared to the peak.
So far, I have lost the most on Tencent, more than 100,000 Hong Kong dollars. When the account was at its most, I had more than $300,000, and when I cleared my position, I had about 220,000 left, and after re-entering, I fell all the way, some time ago there were only more than $70,000 left, and after mid-March, I rose slightly, and now I have about $120,000 in my hand.
After this year, my psychological construction has been done very well, look down on a lot, is to remind myself that it does not matter, anyway, the first is still profitable, the second even if it is a loss, it is to fall back to two or three hundred thousand (RMB), it is equivalent to taking a roller coaster, there is no loss, so I will lie flat.
The first thing you do when you wake up every morning is look at your account
I started buying A shares in 2016 and often browse the market information and some discussions on Snowball. The epidemic in early 2020, the Fed rescue after the Avalanche of US stocks, should be from March and April to rebound. I predicted that this was a clear opportunity, just when there was no money to use, and I went in with my friends in June and July. I took about forty thousand dollars, and he took a small part of it, and by February of the following year, he had been making money, several times the income.
I buy stocks and pay more attention to the modernization of the company's management level, if the management has a history of fraud and likes to open fire and brag, I will not consider it at all. I myself am in the media, and I have some in-depth knowledge of the senior management of many companies, and I often pay attention to their interviews.
At that time, the Chinese stock was held by Shell, then Futu, and Shell was the main position, accounting for about 60% or 70% of my position. In Hong Kong stocks, I also bought Tencent, and also bought some JD.com. My strategy at that time was that if I didn't understand the company, I wouldn't touch it, and if I could see his products or services, I would buy them.
The most earned is the shell, just listed I bought, and then it rose to more than seventy dollars, I cleared a part of the position at the high point, and then it began to fall back to more than fifty, and then the shell management made a particularly big change (shell founder Zuo Hui died), I judged that it was a big risk, it was all clear. If I had held it now, I might have run out of dimes left in my account, which would have been very dangerous.
The second is the rich way, but also into the relatively early, the impression that I first bought more than 40 dollars, and then fell to more than 30 dollars, I think the prospect is very good and added to the position, may also be good luck, it did not take long it began to soar, two months turned to 200 US dollars, made a lot. Later, most of the positions were cleared around $180.
In fact, the big rise is more than half a year, and the main theme is the fall after that. In February last year, the US stock market pulled down, and local companies, especially those large technology companies, like Google and Microsoft, quickly rose again and were very stable. But the Chinese stocks do not have such good luck, after the wave fell, superimposed on the domestic policy, the background of the Sino-US conflict, wave after wave of the Chinese stocks pressed down: basically a slight rise a fall, a slight rise a fall, lasted for a year, pull the K line can be seen, even if it remains relatively good, like Tencent, Jingdong also waist cut fifty percent, Pinduoduo, shell these have fallen by eighty or ninety percent.
When I first started making money, I would put a lot of energy into it, stare at the plate for two hours every night and then go to sleep, and the next morning when I woke up, I would first see if my stock had fallen or risen, and my mood would fluctuate. Now this situation will not happen again, and I will sleep when I am sleepy. Some time ago, it fell to only more than 70,000 US dollars in the account, and I was not very worried, and even added a little position. Anyway, this money can not be used now, put a five-year ten years, is to say it later.
But overall, there is no loss so far, compared to the funds entering the market, even if I am now down 60% compared to the highest point, I still make three times.
The correct stock trading operation is anti-human
There is no "unique martial art" in the stock market, and my own understanding is that the operation of the stock market is against human nature: most people are willing to enter when they are up, crazy when they fall, and the correct operation should be reversed. But this decision is against your nature, and it will be very, very uncomfortable to operate.
When you make money every day, you will feel that stock speculation is so simple, as if whoever points it will rise, Buffett is only twenty percent a year, and it is too weak, I earn six or seven times a year. After such a big upheaval, you will understand why Buffett is particularly bullish, or the old saying: people who earn more are everywhere, but few people live longer.
So you will have a reverence for this matter, be more cautious when investing, and have a more dispersed position. To be honest, there is a rebound in the Chinese stocks now, but I am still not very assured, if there is no further positive in the future, I will reduce the position of the Chinese stocks a little more.
The other is that you will always remind yourself not to get carried away. For example, I have always been very controlling the leverage ratio, and the maximum leverage is not more than 30% or 40%. With leverage, especially when making money, you will feel that your guard is disappearing little by little, and the money is in vain. One open eye account more than 100,000, and then open your eyes to more than 200,000 accounts, you feel oh what are you doing at work? In a few months, financial freedom will be available.
I know people around me who say it's okay to double that high, as long as you don't cut off your account. But in fact, you see so many large companies in Chinese stocks, not only waist cut ah, eighty percent have fallen, right? It's hard to imagine, but he really happened. I also saw a very extreme case in Snowball last year, where a person made a profit from more than 30 million to a dime because of leverage.
Let's talk about a very important experience, don't take your important money to invest, your mentality will be alienated, and your operation will be out of shape. I will first ensure that the necessary expenses of the family, the important insurance of everyone, etc., are all allocated with the surplus money before I can buy stocks. No matter how high the numbers in the stock account, as long as they do not reach the day of realization, they are all paper wealth.
Casinos are always open and don't have to bet on a single night
Alex Shanghai post-90s internet-related industry
A rare "old-school" investor among Internet people
Domestic people become U.S. stock investors, there are roughly three opportunities:
First, the big turmoil in A-shares, or the turmoil in the RMB currency (this opportunity has become less and less in recent years), some people talk about the problem of optimal allocation of assets, and basically the high-end is to buy houses abroad, and buy stocks at the low end;
The second is the listing of important Chinese stock companies, which has led many people to become shareholders, such as his employees, investors and friends and family around them;
Third, the important head of non-Chinese companies soared, most typically Apple, attracting more and more people to become investors.
Oh, and there may be a fourth one: the wealth-making movement of the early years.
According to these opportunities, in the past five years, you can probably divide three generations of US stock investors, who have different mentalities: the earliest asset allocation type may care about the overall balance rather than the phased rise and fall; the middle second generation is the big head, most of them are Internet practitioners, and have strong confidence in China's Chinese Internet; after 2019, the entry, the transaction attributes are more, I come to make money, as for whether to earn on Tencent or Apple, it is not so important. There is no faith in the ugly point, and there is no attachment when it is good to hear. This is not praise or criticism, but objective existence.
You look at another line: from 2016 to 2020, especially in 2018, Chinese stocks accelerated their listing in the United States, which is basically an upward trend, of course, there are twists and turns in the middle, may be once every two years and three years, the results are basically positive recovery, so everyone will more or less press their positions on the Chinese Internet, including European and American investors.
A group of faith-based people (whether faith or speculation) has hit a rising curve that has created a highly consistent expectation over the past few years: the Chinese Internet is changing not only China, but also the world, with only short-term difficulties and no long-term problems. And when the violent fluctuations come, everyone cannot digest it in a short period of time.
I should have contributed a particularly different sample.
I began to invest in US stocks in 2015 and 2016, and the most direct opportunity was to do some asset diversification. I'm a bit of an old school, and I've always held things that a new generation of investors might not even look at, like farmland with a steady dividend, including a decade-old shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway a few years away. My allocation is also not very frequent, the repositioning is very slow, and the proportion of Chinese stocks is not large. Because there are a lot of companies that I don't understand its value. Of course, I myself am on the Internet, true or false will hear some industry news, there will definitely be opportunities to actively avoid some names.
In terms of results, although I say that I am diversifying, holding for a long time, and looking like an old school, the actual income is still from a few very risky option investments. But the best holding experience is still Berkshire — it's not going to be the kind of company that wakes up and finds that its valuation has been fivefold, and it's not going to be the kind of company that falls for a year and then cuts it off again — you really don't have to worry about it.
The princes cried day and night, and could cry to death Dong Zhuo
Of course, this year's impact may exceed the expectations of the vast majority of people, if you chase upwards, there are many reasons, macro and local, long-term and short-term, all mixed together.
I know that there are a lot of friends who cut off the "faith warehouse" on March 10, that is, the stocks that Swore that I would pass on to the next generation. Of course, there are some peer artists who have the audacity to choose to go short, but this kind of operation many people think they can do, but it is actually very difficult, really difficult, and then they also lose badly in the short rally in the next few days.
If you look at it from a macro analysis point of view, this kind of thing that belongs to the system bureau may be difficult to escape to be honest. Because there is no way to think at that moment, that is, it is difficult for you to think normally in the casino, just don't think about it. Something similar has actually been rehearsed once in the United States, such as the GameStop retail rollover event. Before everyone was still watching the fire from the other side, no one thought that these things would actually happen to themselves.
Under the impact of a huge impact, people will trigger a "Fight-or-flight Response", you will either meet or flee, or you will be frightened, neither fighting nor fleeing.
Like me, who do not care about the rise and fall in essence, the intention of the configuration will be more, and the pursuit of the balance between the big categories is more. Although it fell, the purpose of my allocation is still there, I still achieved asset diversification, ensuring the stability of the entire plate, and mentally will not calculate the gains and losses in the short term.
So those days I was calmer, opened to see the situation, and knew that the macro trend was miserable. Then, it's time to play games, it's time to sleep and sleep without very strong fluctuations. It is no exaggeration to say that the first time I opened a position in nearly a year, probably about fifteen minutes ago, I took a look at the general situation, OK, better than I thought, a little bit back.
Those who have a relatively short entry time, the third generation of investors, they will also find that more free trading is not necessarily to protect them, many people think that the small pond is not interesting, I want to go to the ocean to play, it turns out that the ocean is not playing with you.
The most painful may be the second generation of investors, that is, Internet believers, in this industry to pay youth and achieve glory, this time physically and mentally exhausted, money loss sense of achievement is gone, may be the industry is almost gone, most people will choose to lie flat.
Lying flat is also divided into active and passive. Active lying, that is, I know that I am falling, and I also know that I have fallen very badly, and after carefully weighing it, I find that the best result is not to operate, which is a strategy; the second type is that I can't think, and I don't know what to do, I don't think lying flat is the best choice, but I have no other choice. Or is it the old saying, the princes cry day and night, can they cry to death Dong Zhuo?
This casino is open every day, playing big and small is casual, not all bets have to be completed in one day. The US capital market has been running for nearly 200 years, and it is obviously not a normal idea to expect to carry three melons and two dates and no more than five years of investment experience combined, and to run to people's tables to open a royal flush.
The days when lightning strikes down will surely happen in the future
I know that after this turmoil, many people have a lot of doubts and wavering, in fact, it is also very normal, I am also a practitioner of related industries, there are also such myths:
I don't know how many investors still remember a product called "Graded Fund Arbitrage", in 2015 it was a very popular variety, I carefully studied the trading strategy, regulations, and including the composition of the variety, and then came to a conclusion: if it falls, then the grade A I hold will get more income, the more the market falls, the more fiercely my income will be higher on the day, I believe in my own judgment, so I bought a grade A, and the result was that even the grade A fell to a halt that day. I really kept asking myself in the few hours of the last transaction, whether I had miscalculated, if I had not calculated anything... Until the opening of the fourth day, the book float is more than 40%, but even at that moment, you will doubt yourself.
In fact, it is not necessary, the stock market evaluation system is single and direct, that is, the performance of the market. Many people's so-called belief in the Internet, a large part of it comes from market feedback, which should actually be called the belief in stock prices. Including two years ago, three years ago, everyone's enthusiasm for investing in education, people will feel that I am right to invest, and then some interpretations will be derived, such as my promotion of education democratization, etc., in fact, it is not the key. Another thing not to forget is that the stock market is like a pendulum, ups and downs are the norm, and he will continue to do so.
Fortunately, gamblers do not have long letters, and everyone will despair after falling for three days, and everyone will be fanatical after three days of rise.
So let's end up with a very emotional story, let's count it as the end: once Garfield went missing, and then mistakenly hit and was adopted by a pet store, and ate well in the pet store, lived well, and lived a good life. But its owner, Old Ginger (John), has never come to look for it, and it has never found Old Ginger, and it has lived a long time.
Until one christmas day, ginger walked into a pet store, the boss came forward to ask if he needed to buy a pet, he saw Garfield, a surprise, without saying a word, he took Garfield back, and then re-spent Christmas. It would have been a great joy for everyone, but at the end of the story, Garfield turned back to the camera and said, as a smart cat, I would never ask Ginger why he went to the pet store that day.
Let the things of the past pass. Because such a day when lightning strikes down, it will definitely happen in the future, and the key is what to do after that. So instead of asking why you got into the pet store that day, think about what you had in your hand when you left.
Note: At the request of the parties, the gods, Alex, Evy and Wenze in this article are pseudonyms.
*Header image source: Visual China
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