U.S. stocks pre-market| three major stock index futures fell together, B station fell more than 7%, Ali fell more than 5%

Pre-market market movements

On Monday, January 30, before the U.S. stock market, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell together. Dow futures fell 0.72%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.01%, and NASDAQ futures fell 1.37%.

Large U.S. technology stocks fell, with Tesla down more than 1%, Microsoft down more than 1%, and Apple down more than 1%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks fell sharply, with Station B falling by more than 7%, Ali falling by more than 5%, Pinduoduo falling by more than 4%, iQiyi falling by nearly 5%, JD.com falling by more than 4%, and Baidu rising by nearly 2%.

Market news

Super Week is coming! Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the three major central banks and the earnings reports of technology giants. The Fed will announce its February interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, and the further reduction of interest rates to 25 basis points is almost certain, and the market will be watching whether the Fed will "release the doves". The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will both announce interest rate decisions on Thursday evening, and the market expects both central banks to raise interest rates by 50 basis points by then. Markets expect to hear ECB President Christine Lagarde's views on the next rate hike to gauge the ECB's judgment on the direction of inflation and the magnitude of the March rate hike. Investors also expect whether BoE officials will signal that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end. In addition, several tech giants will report earnings this week, including Amazon (AMZN. US), Apple (AAPL. US)、Alphabet(GOOGL. US) and Meta Platforms (META. US)。

Well-known bears in Damo warn U.S. stock investors not to chase the rise: don't fight the Fed! Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, a well-known Wall Street bear, said investors who flock to U.S. stocks as they rise will be disappointed because they are fighting the Federal Reserve. Michael Wilson and his team said: "The upturn in the stock market is starting to convince many investors that they are missing something, which forces them to participate more actively. In our view, the recent U.S. stock market move reflects more of the seasonal effect of January and the short cover after a difficult end of December and a brutal year. Michael Wilson said the company's performance was actually worse than expected, especially in terms of profit margins. He added: "Second, investors seem to have forgotten the basic principle of 'don't confront the Fed'. Perhaps this week will serve as a reminder. "In our view, the Fed is reluctant to move to a more dovish stance." Moreover, the reality of the worst corporate earnings recession since 2008 is once again being mispriced. In our view, this should lead to the final phase of this bear market in the short term. ”

MLIV survey: Lack of investor confidence, U.S. stocks may hit a new low this year. According to the latest survey, investors still lack confidence in U.S. stocks even after this month's rally: most say the market has not yet reached a bottom due to concerns about corporate earnings. In MLIV Pulse's latest survey, about 70% of the 383 respondents held this view, with 35% (the largest percentage) believing that the low will not appear until the second half of 2023. Less than a quarter believe the stock market has bottomed out. The findings suggest investors remain uneasy after last year's stock market hits, with growing concerns about the outlook for corporate earnings as the economy slows. Nearly half of participants said the key to the stock market this week will be Apple, Meta and ExxonMobil (XOM. US), not the Fed's decision or any remarks made by Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

Hedge funds are betting that the U.S. Treasury rally will not be sustainable this year, with a record number of short positions. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of January 24, the total non-commercial net short position in all maturing U.S. Treasuries has reached 2.4 million contracts. These positions cover a variety of market investment strategies (from direct bets to yield curve bets to relative trading to hedging), but the general direction clashes with claims that the apex of the Fed's rate hike is approaching and that a U.S. recession will force investors back into bond markets.

Recession is coming! German GDP fell 0.2% month-on-month in Q4, less than expected. Data released by the German Federal Statistical Office showed that Germany's preliminary GDP after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter fell by 0.2% month-on-month, which was less than the 0% expected by the market. It also means that the German economy could fall into recession (usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction). The German government last week predicted that the German economy would grow by 0.2% in 2023, compared with a previous forecast of a contraction of 0.4%. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck still warned that the German economy could suffer a recession because the crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not over. Germany's economic outlook remains uncertain. At a time when calls for pay rises are growing, inflation may be difficult to contain. Postal workers went on strike to demand a 15 percent pay rise, and public sector workers were also seeking double-digit raises.

Individual stock news

Pass on Apple (AAPL. US) supplier Jabil (JBL. US) began production of AirPods components in India. People familiar with the matter said that Apple's main supplier, Jabil (JBL. US) began producing AirPods components in India, making AirPods the second product currently produced by Apple in the country, previously limited to the iPhone. Jabil's Indian subsidiary has begun shipping AirPods plastic cases to China and Vietnam where wireless headphones are assembled. Jabil operates an 858,000-square-foot (80,000-square-meter) factory in Pune, western India, employing more than 2,500 workers, according to Jabil's website.

Supply chain improvements and layoffs positive prospects, Philips (PHG. US) moved higher premarket. Philips reported earnings on Monday that it expects low-single-digit comparable sales growth and high-single-digit adjusted operating margins this year due to improved supply chains. The company also announced it would lay off another 6,000 jobs, or about 8 percent of its workforce, including 3,000 this year. The layoffs are on top of the 4,000 layoffs announced in October last year and are aimed at cutting costs. In addition, the financial report showed that the company's Q4 sales increased by 10% year-on-year to 5.422 billion euros, better than the market expectation of 5.01 billion US dollars; Diluted earnings per share from adjusted continuing operations amounted to €0.41, better than market expectations of €0.18. As of press time, Philips U.S. stocks rose more than 6% premarket on Monday.

QGEN. US) is considering the sale of a minority stake in its bioinformatics business. Fast & Precision is evaluating the sale of a minority stake in its bioinformatics business, which could be valued at more than $1 billion. The diagnostics firm is reportedly working with consultants to find potential buyers for the business. Fast & Precision has not yet made a final decision. The stake sale is reportedly expected to generate interest from private equity firms. In any event, Kuaier Precision will retain a majority stake in the business.

Shell (SHEL. US) new CEO overhauls business units to improve shareholder returns. Shell's new CEO, Wael Sawan, embarked on an overhaul of the energy giant's core business unit just a month after taking office. Shell said on Monday it would merge its integrated natural gas business with its upstream business, as well as its downstream business with its renewable energy business. At a time when Shell's shareholder returns lag behind its main competitors, Wael Sawan is under pressure to improve shareholder returns.

Important economic data and event forecasts

At 21:15 Beijing time, ECB Governing Council Member Villeroy delivered a speech

Performance forecast

Tuesday morning: NXP. US)

Tuesday premarket: UBS. US)、Spotify(SPOT. US), General Motors (GM. US), Pfizer (PFE. US), McDonald's (MCD.US), Caterpillar (CAT. US), United Parcel (UPS. US), ExxonMobil (XOM. US)