Non-farm data burst the US stock market narrow shock! Hot Chinese stocks rose, shells rose more than 8%

Non-farm payrolls data was cold, US stocks were in a narrow range, as of press time, the Dow rose 0.03%, the Nasdaq rose 0.38%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.15%.

Popular Chinese stocks continued to rise, with Shell up more than 8%, iQiyi up more than 7%, Futu Holdings and Pinduoduo up more than 6%, Alibaba up more than 4%, jd.com, Baidu, and Ideal Auto up more than 3%.

Gaming Stations retreated to 14 percent gains, with reports that Gaming Stations plan to tap into the non-homogeneous token (NFT) and cryptocurrency markets.

On the news side, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 199,000 in December, the smallest increase since January last year, and is estimated at 444,000, compared with 210,000 in the previous value.

After the release of non-farm payrolls data, according to CME "Fed Observation": the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in January is 91.9%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.1%; the probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in March is 24.2%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 69.8%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 5.9%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in May is 14.6%, The probability of a 25 basis point hike is 51.7%, the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 31.4%, and the probability of a rate hike of 75 basis points is 2.4%.

Market news

The US non-farm payrolls fell sharply short of expectations in December, increasing by only 199,000! U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 199,000 in December, compared to 447,000 expected, compared to 210,000 in the previous month. Non-farm payrolls growth in December fell sharply short of expectations, the smallest increase since January 2021, and the unemployment rate was better than expected, continuing to hit a new low since February 2020. After the release of the data, the three major stock index futures of the US stock market collectively turned down.

Hike in March at the earliest!" Hawkish "Bellwether Brad: The Next Step to Shrink the Table!" St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed could decide to raise interest rates as early as March, and that shrinking its balance sheet could be the next policy step in response to high inflation. Bullard stressed that the Fed's focus is now on fighting inflation, and with the real economy recovering strongly but inflation well above policy objectives, the Fed's monetary policy has shifted to a more direct fight against inflation.

When will the ever-falling Bitcoin bottom out? Bitcoin continued to extend its losses on Friday, falling at one point to $41,008, falling below $42,000, its lowest since September last year and about 40 percent down from its all-time high of about $69,000 on November 10. Ethereum fell 8.3 percent at one point, its lowest level since September 30 last year. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may bottom out at the level of $38,000 to $40,000.

Be careful with your positions! Da mo said: The NASDAQ squated after the turn of the S&P 500 index squat. Damo compared the current performance of the S&P 500 with the previous situation and said that the index has recently fallen by 2%, less than half of the past. The bank said that if yield pressures continue to mount, the S&P 500 could be more downside than stocks that have underperformed over the past few months. While U.S. stock indices depend heavily on the future direction of yields, they expect the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 to see a "further moderate downside" over the next two weeks.

Hybrid cars in the United States are popular, with sales up 76 percent in 2021 to a record high. U.S. hybrid vehicle sales rose 76 percent last year to 801,550 units, accounting for 5 percent of U.S. light vehicle sales; Sales of electric vehicles also rose 83 percent to 434879, but accounted for only 3 percent of the market. Among them, Toyota Motor Corporation (TM. US) sales of hybrid vehicles in the U.S. market hit record highs, surpassing General Motors (GM. US) became the highest-selling car manufacturer in the United States.

Indonesian ministers said the state of emergency for coal supply crunch was over. An Indonesian senior cabinet minister reportedly said the power emergency that triggered the coal export ban had ended, but the Indonesian government will continue to discuss policies in this area today. Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia's coordinating minister for maritime and investment affairs, said after meeting with the miners on Thursday evening that the discussions were divided into two parts, one was how to secure coal supply, and the other was to propose a permanent solution. His department will review the criteria for the so-called DMO (Coal Domestic Trade Guarantee Liability), which must be decided at a meeting on Friday.

Individual stock messages

First equity prize in ten years! Apple (AAPL. US) CEO Cook will be paid more than 600 million yuan in 2021. Apple's proxy statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday showed Cook's total compensation for 2021 at $98.7 million (about 630 million yuan). In addition to the base salary of $3 million and the stock award of $82.35 million, Cook received $12 million in non-equity incentive plan compensation and $1.39 million in "other" compensation.

SoftBank (SFTBY. US) is heavily indebted and issues bonds of record size. SoftBank plans to issue its largest ever Japanese yen bond to test whether individual investors will continue to buy bonds from the world's most indebted company in times of market turmoil. SoftBank is selling 550 billion yen ($4.8 billion) of seven-year subordinated bonds, and the proceeds will be used to repay debt.

After two months, the talks collapsed again, and XOM. US) is nowhere to go before the shutdown ends? ExxonMobil rejected a joint steelworkers union (USW) proposal to end the company's work stoppage at its Beaumont refinery in Texas. It is reported that the two sides held about an hour of talks on Thursday local time, which was the first negotiation since the end of October last year.

Game Station (GME. US) intends to enter the NFT and cryptocurrency markets. Game Station reportedly plans to enter the non-homogeneous token (NFT) and cryptocurrency markets. Game Inn has hired more than 20 employees to build and operate NFT-focused business units. The company is building an online website, as well as engaging with a number of specific game publishers and developers, which will launch later this year.

Important economic data and event forecasts

Beijing time 21:30: The US non-farm payrolls change in December after quarterly adjustment (10,000), the US unemployment rate in December (%), the US manufacturing employment change in December after the seasonal adjustment (10,000).

23:45 Beijing time: US President Joe Biden speaks on the December jobs report.

At 1:15 a.m. Beijing time the next day, Bostic, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and President of the Atlanta Fed, delivered a speech at the American Economic Association.

At 1:30 a.m. Beijing time the next day, Richmond Fed President Barkin spoke on the U.S. economic outlook at the 2024 FOMC Voting Committee.