Text | SuperdaddyS
Before the Spring Festival, talking with many second-hand car dealers is actually optimistic about the second-hand car market after the Spring Festival in 2020, because with the implementation of the National VI standard, in the last quarter of 2019, car dealers are competing for high-quality retail car sources, but the rapid wave of "pneumonia" is definitely caught off guard. For 2003 there are still some differences:
1, circulation, China's second-hand car market, mainly through the north, Shanghai and Guangzhou to export car sources, a period after the Spring Festival, whether it is people or cars have been restricted, so circulation will be the first problem faced after the beginning of the year.
2, e-commerce, sarcasm of that year there were many Internet companies, but today's market has entered the 2.0 version, for more than ten years of e-commerce companies to face "online" and "offline" new thinking.
3, service, in 2003, the second-hand car trading volume of 878,900 vehicles, nearly 15 million vehicles in 2019, the quantitative change must bring about qualitative changes, customer needs are also changing, for the retail end: we take a break just to carry out a service upgrade, such as 100% disinfection of retail car sources, to provide more services closer to consumers.
4, mentality, although the influx of e-commerce, but today's second-hand cars are still in a market with opaque information, may follow the big events again and again, the second-hand car in the middle of the thing will slowly disappear, every practitioner must return to the essence, to better operate the second-hand car.
—— Written two years ago
Just after Q1 of 2022, it may be far bigger than the 2003 SARS and 2020 Wuhan new crown black swan event, at least for the automotive industry, the second-hand car industry has more uncertainty, on the one hand, the price of raw materials has risen, many OEMs have risen in price, and the delivery of new cars has dropped sharply; on the other hand, the demand side has dropped sharply, and the passenger flow of the entire automobile market is very impressive. For second-hand car operators, 2020 is the Spring Festival period, the relative inventory is relatively low, and 2 years later, the time point is at the end of the Q1 of the market, most of the peers are still purchasing and building warehouses, and then 1 month or even 2 months no passenger flow and no income, which is very stressful for any practitioner. Although many of the problems encountered so far have in common with 2 years ago, it was the Spring Festival, and most people did not really feel the impact of the epidemic, or when the impact came, the retaliatory consumption after the epidemic made everyone optimistic. So reality is always teaching us again and again, and how much we've learned in it, unless you leave now.
So this is not a prediction, no matter whether the used car is up or down in the future, there will always be "someone making money, someone leaving". Turning to my article 2 years ago, I hope to leave some thinking in the special period, even if it is a warning to my future, don't think that it is my own ability because of the "pigs can go to heaven" market. There are always people who say that the automobile has entered the sunrise industry, but there are still new people pouring in, just from the original "resource is king" began to change.
Just to see the "Buffett 2022 shareholders' meeting" two 190-year-old people talking, there are many trend views, there are many novel industries, there are many eye-catching fund managers, but the 66-year history of "Berkshire Hathaway" is more worthy of our careful taste. So let's combine a lot of their perspectives to discuss the future of the used car industry.
1, never predict the market. "Don't listen to people who claim to be able to predict the direction of inflation, the answer is that no one knows." Although our computer can make budgets and forecasts for so-called computing mechanisms, it still cannot tell us exactly what is right and what is wrong. Back to used cars, we should not predict the future direction of used cars, and we should not hope to find answers (or comfort) through others. As long as there are cars being built, used cars must exist, unless they cut meat and leave the market now.
2. Distinguish between career and speculation. "Never before has it been so crazy and crazy to gamble, buy quickly, sell quickly." Buffett also expressed missing out on the 2020 market, but he also talked about "speculation". After 2020, the second-hand car market is smooth, the purchase price is all the way up, and douyin Kuaishou has created many topics, and the second-hand car gives people an illusion that it does not seem to be difficult to do. Buffett told the "story of the acquisition of Alleghany", although the acquisition was a temporary decision, but in fact he has been following the company for 60 years, "the right time, the right price." ”
3, cash is oxygen. "One thing that won't change is that we always have a lot of cash on hand." Most of us know buffett from his famous "compound interest" to pursue stable earnings and thus achieve long-term profitability. As a representative of long-termism, discipline is extremely important, and it is difficult to control positions in the field of investment. In the current second-hand car market, those who pay attention to lead management and inventory structure have abundant cash flow, and may now smell not "crisis" but "opportunity".
4. Reverence. "There are limits to what you can do." Buffett has repeatedly expressed his negativity for Bitcoin, and many people will comment that the old man is old and rigid. "Bitcoin doesn't produce value, his price only depends on how much the next person who buys him is willing to contribute. After reading this passage, it is not difficult to understand why Buffett, as a "value investment", hates Bitcoin so much. Back to used cars, too, there is no sunflower book, no crash manual, and some are just lessons learned by countless people who have "stumbled" in the market. The irony is "good medicine bitter mouth", if we choose to continue to stick to used cars after the epidemic, it is better to ask ourselves why we chose used cars in the first place.
5. Learn to invest in yourself. The best way to resist inflation is to penetrate your own skills, others trade your abilities, and the best investment is to develop yourself. The only certainty of the future is that we must have spent in uncertainty, SARS to Wuhan for almost 10 years, 2020 to 2022 only 2 years. Used cars are bound to move towards a more positive side, and it's not hard to see from these years of new car sales/used car sales trends that (67.3% in 2021) will reach 1:1 in developed countries in the near future. Each epidemic has accelerated the return of consumption to rationality, and used cars are also getting rid of the stereotype of old and broken under the efforts of generations. Similarly, for future second-hand car brothers and sisters, not only will they collect and sell cars, but also manage, understand traffic, inventory, and you must also read the whole book and be proficient in piano, chess, calligraphy and painting. The car is still that car, and customers choose to buy your car more because the values you pass on are trustworthy.
I'm always thankful to know a lot of great people in the industry, and what I respect is the people who look at one thing to the end, for example, some car dealers only make one car, they don't know that other models may be more profitable, I think they just "find what they're really not good at, and then avoid them." You can laugh at them when the market is good, and when the market is pessimistic, you will find that they are still "cloudy and clear" This confidence comes from the "pain" of their process, and their focus is also beyond the imitation or even surpassing of others. Seeing Buffett and Munger talking about investing, what they hear more is their experience in doing things and life.
Used cars are not.
WeChat public number: used car wisdom Pan Pan (id: carman228)
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