Selling his own stock, Musk pitted Tesla

Author | Shen Peng

The richest man is very wide, more than 40 billion to buy Twitter, without blinking an eye, and full of idealism.

The richest man was crazy, threatening to pocket Coca-Cola and add cocaine to it, not knowing how Buffett's old man would feel when he heard the news, whether to fight with the young pony.

The richest man is also very cool, just released Tesla Q1 financial report, revenue rose 80% year-on-year, net profit is soaring 606% year-on-year, attracting many technology giants coveted.

However, I don't know if the richest man will be depressed these two days, because Tesla is hot, in the past three days, the stock price fell by 13%, the market value evaporated over 100 billion US dollars, if compared with last year's highest level, Tesla's retracement reached 30%, has fallen into the conventional bull-bear dividing line. Today, it is also reported that Musk sold his Tesla stock and cashed out $4 billion.

Is it true that the richest man is also short of money?

01

Highlights

Judging from the financial report of the first quarter, Tesla is still on the track of high-speed development, the order is still scheduled to next year, it can be said that there is no worry about selling at all, the old horse should now worry about production capacity, this seller's market, for the new domestic forces, that is only envy and envy.

The two newly opened factories this year also give the old horse the confidence to maintain 50% annual growth, if you look at the grand goal of 20 million vehicles in the long term 2030, Tesla's future is still the star sea, you know, last year it sold 930,000 cars, 20 million vehicles, it is equal to 20 times in 2021, 20 times the sales volume in 10 years, the stock price now looks inflated, but on the long line, there is still a lot of room for growth. What's more, Tesla's increase in profitability is visible to the naked eye and can surprise investors almost every quarter.

Looking at the current global large technology stocks, in fact, Tesla still has such room for growth, others, Apple, Microsoft, FB, Google, AMAZON, none of them can have such expectations, and what is more tragic is that there are still many recent technology stock performance thunderstorms. Therefore, the market pursues Tesla, and the reason is also valid.

However, in the short term, Tesla does have an overvalued part, even if it is included in the super performance growth of a quarterly report, Tesla's dynamic PE is still more than 100 times, if according to the old horse, Tesla can maintain an average annual growth of 50%, to restore normal manufacturing valuation, it will take 3 years.

However, the problem of high valuation of technology stocks is actually very common, and it can even be said to be the norm, but Tesla with the strength of a company, the market value of almost all the key car companies, in addition to their own huge growth space, the continuous improvement of profitability, but also in the global liquidity flood after the epidemic, if you look at the starting point of Tesla's stock price surge, and the epidemic liquidity loose node is very consistent. Of course, this is the same trend of many technology stocks, much the same.

Just how crazy it is, how tragic it will naturally be. At present, the world is entering a new round of liquidity contraction, and highly valued technology stocks have become the first to bear the brunt, so the sharp retracement of Tesla's stock price is actually not surprising, after all, the far water can not save the near fire.

How to solve the problem of high valuation?

One is the automatic correction of the market, the price is a sharp retracement of the stock price, and the other is to hand over high-growth performance and slowly erase the valuation bubble. Obviously, the second is a fairly slow process, far less rapid than the market's automatic correction.

In fact, the market value of more than one trillion US dollars is not a good thing for Tesla investors at the moment, because if there is no receiver or booster to continue to arch upwards, then it is likely to be downward.

Although the decline of these two days can be blamed on Musk himself selling Tesla stock, but from the perspective of valuation and market liquidity, this kind of thing will happen sooner or later, even if it is not Musk, there will be other investors to sell stocks, not to mention there may be bears in the disturbance.

02

divergence

Now for Tesla, the market's views are also divergent, the bullish faction will tell you about the sea of stars, the idealism is strong, the bearish faction will talk to you about liquidity contraction, economic downward pressure and excessive valuation.

The most committed Tesla fans should be regarded as Wooden Sister. However, The return rate of Wood Sister's fund has also experienced a huge drawdown, and has fallen back to the horizontal range of Buffett, but compared with the steady old bus, Wood Sister can be said to have experienced a peak, and then returned to calm.

Some time ago, Wood Sister had shouted that Tesla's stock price could reach $4600 by 2025, but this valuation model based on automatic driving and unmanned rental was precisely the most difficult place to quantify, even if the report of Wood Sister was read from the beginning, it might not be able to see clearly, because the variables in the middle were too big. For ordinary investors, it is equivalent to watching domestic securities companies see the valuation of Ningde in 2060, just like in the clouds.

Whether you should be bullish or bearish Tesla, it is really difficult to have a consistent view, because this kind of technology stock is accompanied by growth and high valuation, a bit like the high inflation in the process of high economic growth, many times just depends on your investment style and risk appetite.

However, referring to the hype history of other technology stocks, it is certain that Tesla, whether it is long or short, is not weak in attraction, and will continue to be flipped, with sharp rises and sharp retraces, and the fluctuation range is far greater than that of other large technology stocks.

Therefore, the best strategy is still to follow the big market to switch high and low.

However, compared with the sharp fluctuations in Tesla's stock price, Musk has a very comfortable life, first a large amount of money to buy Twitter, but also unabashedly said a word, which is probably Musk's consistent style, maverick. In the current American technology community, no one should be able to stand out.

In the past, Musk has always been known for all kinds of out-of-the-box performances, interview shows smoke marijuana, scare Buffett, scare shorts, and even scare customers, if it were not for his real material, I am afraid that he would have been brushed down by public opinion a long time ago.

Compared with the old Gates and Bezos, the new world's richest man can really be said to be fearless, and compared with the new generation of Zuckerberg, he also showed a crushing posture, investors rather than worry about Tesla's performance, but worry about whether the old horse will one day because of mavericks and what kind of moths.

03

epilogue

As one of the leaders of the new industrial revolution, Tesla's future can be described as a sea of stars, no need to worry; as the hottest coffee in the American technology industry, the new richest man in the world, Musk's technical ability and commercial ability are also beyond doubt.

Especially in the past, the Internet giants, have thunderous performance, stock prices fell sharply at the moment, more set off Tesla and Musk shine, more importantly, compared with the Internet stars, electric vehicles seem to be so many years, Tesla and old horses are singing monologues, competitors are still out of reach.

Therefore, for investing in Tesla, if you look at 5 years or 10 years in the long run, you can't see any problems, even if you buy expensive, as long as you can stay up for time, everything will come back, and there is a high probability of creating a new high. However, if you only look at the short term, the investment value will not be too high, because the current macro environment does not support it to continue to create new highs, but the room for retracement is not small.

The next time we enter the upward period, I am afraid that it will be time for Tesla to announce the expansion of the factory again, or the software fee will begin to enter the explosion of the blowout, or the time to announce the official production of the Model 2, cybertruck and more new models. Either way, it comes down to letting investors see Tesla's production capacity climbing, sales selling more and more, and making more and more money.

As for how to choose, it depends on whether you are focusing on the long term or the short term.

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