At noon on February 13, CATL solemnly stated through its official WeChat public account that a series of malicious rumors about CATL being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the CHINext weight index, and negotiating with Tesla have recently appeared on the online platform, which has caused market misunderstandings and misinterpretations and affected corporate reputation.
Its officials said that in order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, they have officially reported the case to the public security organs on February 12, and will pursue legal responsibility for rumor-mongers according to law.
Image source: Ningde Times
Where do rumors come from?
The reason behind the matter needs to return to the Ningde era since December 3, 2021, the stock price reached 692 yuan / share, and the market value has reached a new high after the high correction, continuing to fall. Since the beginning of this year, its stock market has suffered a series of heavy setbacks, as of the close of February 11, catalist times stock price fell to 489.99 yuan / share, setting a new low since October 2021, the highest decline in the week is more than 20%. The market value loss exceeded 200 billion yuan, and the average loss of households exceeded 1.5 million.
Ningde times stock price trend chart since December 2021; image source: Oriental Wealth
As a result, a series of negative speculations about the Ningde era have intensified, including that "the Ningde era is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of its sanctions by the United States."
At the same time, on February 11, a so-called "blockbuster" news - "Ningde era and Tesla price talks collapsed" pictures were widely circulated in major WeChat groups, followed by news that Tesla has negotiated a purchase order for 204,000 units / year blade battery (model C112F) under ADI,000, and the mass production time is in March this year, which may affect the close cooperation between NINGDE times and Tesla.
For a time, the reason for the plunge in the market value of the Ningde era seems to have been so conclusively concluded, and it was believed to be true, in the speculation of many people, the stock price of the Ningde era after the opening of the market on February 14 may reach a new low.
However, in response to the above rumors, the Ningde era classified them as "malicious rumors", and nothing was unfounded and bad in nature. The relevant person in charge of Tesla also responded, "It is indeed not true to talk about the collapse of the Ningde era." ”
"CATL itself is the largest company in the chinext board with the largest market value, based on the sharp increase in market value in the past year has also become the most concerned stock in the current A-share market, the continuous decline in stock prices will inevitably cause general anxiety among investors, and the destructive force will be huge when choosing to create rumors at this time." Some insiders said so.
He further speculated that this may be a bear trying to influence the stock price.
Why did the stock price fall?
Today, for those who pay attention to the concept of new energy, the Ningde era will definitely not be a strange existence. As a well-deserved leading enterprise in the field of power batteries in the mainland, according to the data released by SNE Research, a South Korean market research institute, CATL has won the global battery installed capacity champion for the fifth consecutive year, with a cumulative installed capacity of 96.7GWh, accounting for nearly one-third of the market share, surpassing the sum of the second LG new energy and the third Panasonic installed capacity.
Reflected in the level of performance, it is a sharp increase of 150.75%-195.52% over the previous year, and it is expected to be as high as 14 billion to 16.5 billion yuan of net profit attributable to the mother. According to the previous three quarterly financial reports released by CATL, its net profit in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 6.249 billion yuan - 8.749 billion yuan, and CATL has shown a super gold absorption ability.
CATL 2021 annual performance forecast; image source: screenshot of the company's announcement
The market value of more than one trillion yuan also makes CATL ranked as "China's most valuable automobile listed company".
However, for the continuous correction of the recent stock price of the Ningde era, it can not help but cause everyone to wonder, why did it fall?
According to the collection of the main views of the current market, the stock price of the Ningde era has fallen mainly for the following three reasons, one is that due to the impact of the rise in the price of upstream power batteries, new energy vehicle companies are forced to raise the price, and the proportion of core customers is matched or adjusted; second, the new energy storage solution appears, and the corresponding market share of the Ningde era may be affected; third, the overseas central bank enters the interest rate hike period, or suppresses the high valuation plate.
Expanding on, since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the price of raw materials has gradually risen, and the price of various materials for power batteries has risen to a high. Affected by the soaring price of raw materials, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other power battery companies have announced price increases since the fourth quarter of 2021, and even more bluntly, in early 2022, cylindrical lithium battery cells will rise again in price, up 5%-15%.
Naturally, the Ningde era could not be spared.
At the same time, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have further declined, and the cost pressure of major OEMs has doubled, and the price increase has to be transmitted from raw materials - components - power batteries to the terminal. As a result, BYD, SAIC Roewe, Wuling, Great Wall Motors and other new energy models have successively issued price increase notices. As for how to negotiate a price increase plan between battery manufacturers and OEMs, and whether the OEMs will choose the second and third partners as the weight of the cooperation trade-off, it has become a major speculation benchmark for the stock price of the Ningde era.
Secondly, with regard to the energy storage market, at present, the mass production line of the "Ronghe No. 1" iron-chromium flow battery stack with independent property rights of the State Power Investment Corporation is put into operation. It is reported that the electrolyte solution of iron-chromium flow battery energy storage technology is an aqueous solution, which will not explode, can realize flexible customization of power and capacity on demand, and has the advantages of long cycle life, good stability, easy recovery, wide operating temperature range, low cost, etc., which meets the new power system of large-scale and long-term energy storage needs of the mainland. As a result, it has also triggered investors' concerns about the energy storage market in the Ningde era.
Schematic diagram of the principle of the "Ronghe No. 1" iron-chromium flow battery stack; image source: State Power Investment
Where is the "bottom" of the trillion market value?
Regarding the "bottom" of the trillion market value of the Catalonia era, the "Macroeconomic Analysis Report: How Much Can the Ningde Era Fall?" published by Capital Securities at noon on February 11? A quantitative analysis perspective pointed out in the research report that the current Ningde era is facing a similar market environment in Guizhou Moutai in 2021: the rising logic has been challenged, the US Treasury yield has risen sharply, the stock price has soared, and the track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback of more killings. Referring to the trend of Moutai in Guizhou, the overall adjustment of the Ningde era has not yet ended, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future.
NINGDE Times Science and Technology Building; Image source: NINGDE Times
Although the research report still gives catalpinning times a bullish rating, it further said that in the long run, CATL is in a highly growing, technologically transformed new energy industry, with more opportunities, greater risks, and its moat is more unstable, and the long-term trend may depend on the fundamental changes in the company and the industry, but then Gaz Auto found that the research report and Capital Securities were originally scheduled to hold a "bearish" CATL conference call that night was deleted and canceled.
Also on February 11, UBS Securities released a research report saying that a series of studies have shown that the Catalonia era has ushered in a buying opportunity with a target price of 700 yuan; nomura Oriental International also released a research report that even raised the target price of the CATL era to 722 yuan / share.
Along with the solemn statement on rumors in the Ningde era at noon on Sunday, it once again aroused heated discussions, condemning the rumor-mongers countless times, but it seems that more people are expecting to announce the trend of the stock price the next day. So, for the future market value trend of the Ningde era, are you bearish? Or is it bullish?