As you may all know, from 2020 to the present, it is the three years with the most rapid development of new energy vehicles in China, and many manufacturers have sold a large number of new energy vehicles during this period. However, if the time continues to move forward, new energy subsidies and purchase tax reductions are important drivers to promote new energy vehicles from "infancy" to "youth". Due to the existence of new energy vehicle subsidies, consumers can buy new cars at a lower price, and the purchase tax reduction allows consumers to spend a lot less "visiblely" when purchasing new energy vehicles. Therefore, we always believe that new energy vehicles have come all the way in the domestic market, and the leverage effect of new energy vehicle subsidies and purchase tax reductions cannot be ignored.
However, as new energy vehicles are more and more recognized by people, the market ownership and sales volume increase more and more, and the new energy vehicle subsidies and purchase tax reductions as the driving force will also usher in the end of their lives. According to the relevant notices and the summary of various news, from 2023, that is, starting next year, the domestic new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction and new energy subsidies will most likely be "both invalid". After buying new energy vehicles, the problem you may face is that the price of new cars will rise, and after buying a car, you will not only have to pay the relevant insurance fees, but also pay a certain amount of purchase tax according to the price of the car. These extra costs did not exist when new energy vehicles were purchased in the past.
Then the problem is now more clear, can be divided into two, one is that for consumers, with the cancellation of the purchase tax reduction, the withdrawal of new energy subsidies, the price of new cars and the cost after the purchase of cars may be greatly improved, because we see that just because of the new energy subsidies in 2022, they have not been completely cancelled, and the prices of new energy brand models such as Tesla and Xiaopeng have increased by different margins. So after the complete cancellation, the price is likely to rise again, coupled with the need to pay the purchase tax, so in the case of spending more, consumers are willing to continue to buy new energy vehicles?
Second, for manufacturers and the market, the price is always a very important force to leverage demand and supply, the price continues to increase will definitely affect sales, the same reason, with the complete withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies, the probability of car prices continue to rise, but also need to pay purchase tax according to the car price, inside and outside will cost tens of thousands more. For consumers, whether they are willing to bear the "pain" of spending more money are important factors affecting the new energy vehicle market.
In fact, from the perspective of the development path of the past two or three years, the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies is not obvious to the blow of domestic new energy vehicles, and it can even be said that the impact is minimal. The reason is actually very simple, that is, for pure electric models, there is polarization at the market level, such as the extremely cheap car of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, which is popular, and Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other models of more than 200,000 are popular, the audience of these two types of models is relatively low sensitivity to the decline of new energy subsidies, and the overall sales of pure electric models of 10-200,000 levels are general, which may have a great relationship with the needs of the audience. Because many consumers in this price range may only be able to buy one car, and many pure trams are difficult to meet their needs. So it may be the most sensitive group of people to new energy subsidies, but many people have not bought pure trams at all. Hybrid vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles themselves have been deprived of subsidy qualifications, so whether they retreat or not does not affect consumers' purchase decisions.
However, there are now two "variables", one is that after the purchase tax is resumed on new energy vehicles, which consumers' car purchase decisions will be affected? Second, new energy vehicles will definitely develop in depth, that is, to reach the consumption range of nearly 100,000-200,000. From the first point of view, it may not have any impact on the very cheap electric vehicles such as Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, because the price of the car is cheap enough, so the purchase tax is also very small; and for more than 200,000 electric vehicle users, more than 20,000 purchase taxes are actually within the acceptable range. The majority of owners of plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles pay more attention to the daily cost of future use, so the purchase tax seems to be within the acceptable range.
Now the key problem is that many high-end new energy vehicle market sales are hot, our traditional sense of the rich people to buy high-end new energy models, the market will always have a relatively saturated day, then new energy vehicles are bound to 10-200,000 market depth breakthrough. Then consumers in this price range, as mentioned above, many families may only be able to afford to buy a car, and this car needs to carry a lot of roles, and the purchase cost brought about by the increase in car prices and the resumption of purchase tax will increase greatly, if there is no clear provision for fuel vehicles out, then the impact of new energy vehicles in this price range may be more obvious. Of course, this impact is also short-term, because with the advancement of technology and the improvement of supporting equipment, the market segment with the highest sales volume of 100,000-200,000 will eventually fully embrace new energy.
Therefore, from the perspective of cost, with the high probability of new energy subsidies and purchase tax reductions and reductions next year, the domestic new energy vehicle market may suffer a certain impact. However, if we "split" the new energy vehicle market and consumer population, we will find that the impact is not all-round, but relatively directional. Of course, for the gradually maturing domestic new energy automobile industry, it is ultimately necessary to obtain consumer recognition with products and services, and new energy subsidies and purchase tax reductions are only a necessary support in its "infancy" stage.