There are two recognized prodigies in the scientific community, one is Da Vinci and the other is Nikola Tesla.
Considered the most creative and mysterious man in human history, Nikola Tesla invented technology that transcended his time. He is considered one of the important promoters of the commercialization of electricity and is widely known for designing modern alternating current systems. He also has a contribution to the modernization of electrical technology that no one else can match.
When it comes to new energy electric vehicles, we have to mention Tesla (Tesla) in the United States. Yes, you heard it right, Tesla is named after the last name of Nikola Tesla. The name Nikola tesla is used by another hydrogen energy truck manufacturer in the United States, which is known as the "Tesla of the truck world". This hydrogen energy truck company called Nikola is our protagonist today.
The earth-shattering scam was exposed
According to overseas media reports, on September 10, 2020, the short-selling agency (Hindenburg Research) issued an announcement that Nikolai was a "sophisticated scam" that had never mastered hydrogen energy fuel cell technology, and even the hydrogen energy truck in the promotional video was nothing more than a car shell that slid down the slope and relied on gravity. On September 21, 2020, Nikolai founder Trevor Trevor Milton had to announce his resignation, dumping the hot potato on GM, which had just taken a stake on September 8.
In just one month, Nikolai changed from a star to a liar, the stock price also quickly turned from soaring to plummeting, the plot can be described as a twist and turn, Milton only took three months, from "the next Musk" to "the next Jia Yueting", and Nikolai changed from "the next Tesla" to "Luckin in the automotive industry".
As we all know, in order to realize his so-called car dream, Jia Yueting, the boss of Jia Yueting, ran to the United States in 2017 at the expense of money, leaving behind a LeTV that he had founded and operated for more than a decade but is now in debt. After arriving in the United States, he became ceo of Faraday Future and began his dream of cars. No matter how wonderful his PPT is, how he swears, but in the end he ended up with the result of penthouse car building.
And Milton is more skilled, changing the PPT car to a video car, not only a video, but also a real car; not only a real car, but also a running on the road. On top of that, his trucks are powered by hydrogen energy, which is recognized by the world as the ultimate solution for human mobility.
This is really in response to Lei Jun's words: Standing on the wind outlet, pigs can fly! But what about the pigs once the wind stops? I'm afraid I'll only be killed by a fall!
After all, what is false is false, and it can be concealed for a while, but it cannot be concealed for a lifetime. The Nikola hydrogen energy car's earth-shattering scam was finally debunked! However, its explosion has left us with deep thinking, is there a future for the development of hydrogen energy vehicles? Can it still be the ultimate form of energy for humanity? Next, let's analyze the prospects of hydrogen energy in detail.
The question of hydrogen energy
1. The conversion efficiency is low
Tesla founder Musk has said publicly that hydrogen energy vehicles are a "very stupid" concept: "If you take a solar panel to charge the battery pack directly, compared with electrolysis, take hydrogen, separate oxygen, compress hydrogen... Hydrogen-powered vehicles are about half as efficient as electric vehicles. ”
Volkswagen believes that from new energy power generation, power transmission, to storing electricity in batteries and then converting it into mechanical energy to drive vehicles forward, the overall energy efficiency of electric vehicles is about 70% to 80%. Hydrogen energy vehicles, from electricity to hydrogen production has lost 45% of the efficiency, and then in the fuel cell to convert hydrogen energy back into electricity, the remaining energy has a loss of about 55%. It ends up in mechanical energy, with an overall energy efficiency of only 25 to 35 percent.
The doubts of these two big men point to the biggest drawback of hydrogen energy - the extremely low conversion efficiency. Yeah, the same electricity, directly into the battery is not good? Why bother to turn into hydrogen and then electricity?
2. The hydrogen production process is complex and expensive
You know, none of the production, storage, hydrogenation, and fuel cells of hydrogen are cheap.
In terms of production, although the hydrogen in nature is inexhaustible, at present, 95% of the hydrogen source is still fossil fuels, carbon emissions are quite high, but the manufacturing cost is acceptable; and if the use of new energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy to produce hydrogen energy, the cost will be very high.
In terms of storage, hydrogen is the lightest substance in the world, and its unit volume contains much less energy than hydrocarbons. Infrastructure that contains the same energy, storing hydrogen is three to four times larger than storing gasoline and diesel, and the facility that stores hydrogen is a behemoth, which is very inconvenient.
Hydrogenation is a bigger problem. Because the current development of electric vehicles is in full swing, the problem that everyone is most worried about is the shortage of charging piles. To build a hydrogen refueling station, the cost is roughly twice that of a charging pile.
Some insiders estimate that if the cost of hydrogen production is 10 yuan / kg, then the cost of storage, transportation and addition of 3 links can reach 30 yuan / kg.
In terms of fuel cells, although the cost has dropped significantly with the advancement of technology, its manufacturing cost is still 2 to 4 times that of fuel vehicles.
According to a report released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the cost of hydrogen energy vehicles is expected to remain 20% to 50% higher than that of battery cars by 2030; the International Energy Agency also believes that the current cost of hydrogen energy vehicles is about twice that of electric vehicles.
In this way, hydrogen energy vehicles really seem to have no development opportunities.
The development of hydrogen energy vehicles in the world
According to the statistics of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance Research Institute, 9 of the more than 20 countries accounting for 44% of the global GDP have formulated a complete national hydrogen energy strategy, and 11 countries are formulating a national hydrogen energy strategy. In addition, 14 countries, which account for 38% of global GDP, have not yet issued hydrogen energy development strategies, but are already supporting hydrogen energy pilots and demonstration projects.
The development of hydrogen energy vehicles can be traced back to 1968, when the world's first usable hydrogen fuel cell vehicle was manufactured by General Motors of the United States, which was based on a van and loaded with a fuel cell pack with a maximum power of 150 kilowatts and a range of 200 kilometers.
In 2014, the mirai, the world's first commercially sold hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, was launched. In addition, there is Honda's Clarity and the modern NEXO. It can be said that the current hydrogen energy vehicle market is basically monopolized by Toyota, Hyundai, Honda and other Japanese and Korean car companies, but the Jaguar Land Rover in the United Kingdom, BMW in Germany, and GM and Hyperion in the United States have also launched their own hydrogen energy vehicles.
Since hydrogen energy has so many shortcomings, why do the world's major automobile companies continue to enter the field of hydrogen energy vehicles? This has to say about the unique advantages of hydrogen energy vehicles.
1. Strong endurance.
The fuel cell used in hydrogen energy vehicles is very different from the lithium battery used by electric vehicles, lithium batteries rely on charged electrical energy, while hydrogen fuel cells rely on hydrogen. For hydrogen energy vehicles, only the number or volume of energy storage tanks needs to be increased to increase the range. According to data released by the Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association, the long-distance version of the Tesla Model 3 requires a battery weight of nearly half a ton, while the Toyota Mirai's hydrogen storage tank is only 88 kg.
2. Short hydrogenation time.
We all know that it often takes several hours for electric vehicles to be fully charged, but the speed of hydrogen energy vehicles is as easy and fast as refueling, and the kung fu of going to the bathroom is added, and the hydrogen refueling station can be as simple as a gas station.
3. Completely pollution-free.
As we all know, the only product of hydrogen combustion is water, and it is pure water, and it can even be directly drunk. The electrical energy converted by hydrogen combustion, like electric vehicles, has no noise and accelerates very quickly. It can be said that hydrogen energy vehicles combine almost all the advantages of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, and abandon the unbearable shortcomings of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.
Development status of hydrogen energy vehicles in China
As the world's largest hydrogen producer, China's hydrogen energy industry is developing rapidly. Hydrogen energy and fuel cells were written into the government work report for the first time during the two sessions in 2019. In September 2020, China clearly proposed the dual carbon targets of "carbon peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutrality" in 2060. Hydrogen energy will be officially written into the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2021. By the end of 2021, there will be more than 10 hydrogen energy industry plans at the provincial and municipal levels nationwide, and more than 30 hydrogen energy special plans at the prefecture-level city and district level.
In fact, during the Beijing Winter Olympics, hydrogen energy has played an important role. The Olympic torch fuel of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games is all hydrogen energy, and the hydrogen main torch of the Winter Olympic Stadium will be lit at the opening ceremony. In addition, the Beijing Winter Olympics demonstrated the operation of more than 1,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations. More than 700 hydrogen fuel buses were put into use in the competition area, and all vehicles providing connection services between the venues also used hydrogen fuel cell buses.
According to the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, by 2050, the demand for hydrogen in the mainland will be close to 60 million tons, hydrogen energy will account for more than 10% of the mainland terminal energy system, and the annual output value of the industrial chain will reach 12 trillion yuan.
At present, GAC, SAIC, Changan, Hongqi and other passenger car companies have also released their own hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, such as GAC Trumpchi Aion LX Fuel Cell, SAIC MAXUS EUNIQ 7, Changan CS75 FCV, Hongqi H5 FCVE and so on.
In addition, Passenger truck companies such as Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, Beiqi Foton, Geely Commercial Vehicle, and Great Wall Weishi New Energy have also successively developed hydrogen fuel cell buses and trucks.
At present, there are two main problems encountered in the development of China's hydrogen energy market.
One is that the cost mentioned earlier is too high.
The main reason is that many core materials and components in the fuel cell system are still dependent on imports, such as catalysts, carbon paper, proton exchangers, etc., and the lack of mass-produced mature products in China can only be imported from abroad.
The other is that some technical problems have not been broken.
Although some domestic enterprises have mastered some hydrogen fuel cell technology, compared with the international advanced level, the gap is still very large; especially in the durability and reliability of the core components and systems of the battery, the gap is very obvious.
There are no shortcuts to solving these problems. The author believes that the most effective method is:
First, the state should strengthen the top-level design and planning of the entire industrial chain and improve the construction of relevant industrial policy systems.
The second is to accelerate the process of hydrogen energy marketization, in the form of scale-sharing costs, and use scale expansion to achieve cost dilution.
The third is to continue to increase investment in talent scientific research and unremittingly overcome the core technical problems of hydrogen energy fuel cells.
It is believed that under the precise guidance of national policies and through the joint and unremitting efforts of domestic car companies, China's hydrogen energy vehicle industry will surely come out of a bright road.
Write at the end
Although Nikola's scam has been exposed, it has not shaken or stopped the world's march towards hydrogen energy.
As a pure energy source with zero pollution, hydrogen energy is destined to become one of the important solutions for human beings to cope with global warming and the ultimate solution for human travel.