A war without real winners.
Text/Shanshan Xu
01
A global injury
The situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense. Many Western countries, led by the United States, announced that they would impose sanctions on Russia. At present, Ukraine has declared a state of war throughout the country.
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In a zero-sum game, there is never a winner. Just like the situation in Russia and Ukraine, which has focused on the global eye in recent days, it is not only about geopolitics, but also may have an impact on the global chip supply chain.
Russia, for example, not only ranks among the world's top oil and gas reserves, but is also one of the producers of nickel ore and palladium.
Nickel is the raw material for the production of batteries for electric vehicles, while palladium is an indispensable key raw material for aerospace, nuclear energy and automotive manufacturing, and is also commonly used in the post-chip packaging process. It is reported that Russia supplies about 40% of the world's palladium.
Earlier, a US think tank predicted that the United States may concoct a Russian version of the "Huawei ban" to curb Russia's ability to develop high technology.
Because it is said that chip manufacturing is closely related to the comprehensive strength of the country, but Russia's chip industry has always been a mystery. Now that Russia has not "weaponized" energy exports, Biden can continue to make harsh remarks.
And Ukraine?
According to the report of market research institute TrendForce, Ukraine is a large supplier of raw gas for semiconductor processes, including neon, argon, krypton, krypton, etc., of which neon gas is supplied by Ukraine to nearly 70% of the global production. Neon gas is mainly used in the DUV lithography process, and the process nodes range from 180 nm of 8-inch wafers to 10nm of 12-inch wafers.
Seeing this, you will definitely realize that if Ukraine closes the external channel, when the car manufacturers exhaust the chip inventory, I am afraid that there will be a new round of production cuts and production cuts.
Not only that, the price of inert gas required for the lithography process has been in an upward cycle since the end of 2020, and if there is a trend of reduced supply, it is bound to trigger a high price, and the price of automotive chips is likely to fly again.
Of course, if Russia and Ukraine can finally shake hands and make peace, or find a peace solution, I believe that the turmoil in the chip supply chain will not happen, otherwise it will be a global harm.
02
Geely big moves
According to Tianyan' inspection, on February 22, Zhejiang Geely Automobile Co., Ltd. underwent a number of industrial and commercial changes, including: Li Shufu withdrew from the directorship and added GanJiayue and others; the company's legal representative was changed from An Conghui to Ganjiayue; the original shareholder Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd. withdrew, and the new shareholder Geely Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was added.
One of the biggest feelings in recent times is that the new car-making forces are too popular.
A while ago, Weilai Automobile's cancellation of its idle subsidiaries was sent to the headlines of hot search, but a series of personnel adjustments that occurred in recent days by the veteran car company Geely did not have any waves.
Although the new energy vehicle market should indeed give heat, the gossip of domestic veteran car manufacturers also has to talk about it.
Geely Chairman Li Shufu's withdrawal from Zhejiang Geely Automobile inevitably reminds people of Lei Jun's original wave of operations: in order to devote himself to the car-making business, he has successively withdrawn from the management positions of many of its subsidiaries.
Perhaps different from Lei Jun, Li Shufu is about to start making mobile phones.
The news of "Geely's acquisition of Meizu" has not stopped boiling, and Zhejiang Geely Automobile has changed from general manager to supervisor and director. Does this mean that Li Shufu is going to concentrate on building mobile phones? Maybe this is just the beginning?
Although this only represents personal speculation, it is a hilarious thing for car companies to build mobile phones across the line recently. The representative of the new car-making force Weilai has made the industry begin to pay attention to the possibility of this trend.
Rather than making a profit, car companies should be more for the purpose of creating a more intimate intelligent car experience and a more silky user ecological content.
But in the end, making mobile phones is also a science. Compared with self-development and heavy acquisition of mobile phone departments, will it be more feasible to develop customized models with mobile phone brands?
03
Wei Lai out of the circle
Reuters recently reported that Ford CEO Jim Farley denied the possibility of splitting the electric vehicle and fuel vehicle business. However, Farley still pointed out that it will catch up with Tesla and Nio in the field of electric vehicles.
The characteristics of The Centennial Fu are named Weilai Automobile, and to be honest, it surprised me a little.
Farley's exact words were, "NIO and Tesla are our competitors, and we have to beat them, not go hand in hand with them." At the same time, we must also beat the strongest competitors in the field of internal combustion engines. ”
This isn't the first time Farley has publicly mentioned two electric car makers. At the Yahoo Finance live broadcast in January this year, Farley affirmed the achievements of Tesla and Nio in the field of electric vehicles.
In the past 2021, Tesla's global delivery volume was 936,200 units, an increase of 87.2% year-on-year; total revenue was $53.823 billion, an increase of 71% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother was $5.519 billion; and gross vehicle gross margin increased to 28.9%.
Tesla is undoubtedly the most profitable company in the electric car industry over the past year, and Musk's success is there for all to see. In contrast, Weilai has been slightly overtaken by Xiaopeng.
NIO delivered a total of 91,429 vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year, and lost to Xiaopeng Automobile's 98,155 units. Nevertheless, it does not prevent it from quickly "going out of the circle".
Foreign media Electronek even commented that Tesla's biggest competitor in China is not Ford, but Weilai. At present, Weilai is also accelerating its expansion of western Europe. It's also one of Tesla's target markets.
In addition, NIO has recently reported the expansion of its U.S. headquarters. In the home turf of competitors such as Tesla, what are the odds of Weilai winning?
Having said that, Weilai was affirmed by Ford, in part because the latter was really reluctant to electrify the transformation.
Compared to its old rival General Motors in the United States, Ford is slightly slower and more passive. This has caused dissatisfaction among investors, and the spin-off plan that came out above was supported by its investors.
However, this electric vehicle revolution is bound to be vast and long, and who can be sure that Ford will always lag behind? Or will Weilai not be left behind?