Recently, many car companies have issued notices to remind consumers of new energy vehicles to buy cars quickly, because if they do not buy them, they will increase prices. In 2022, the new energy subsidy will decline by 30%, and next year the subsidy will be completely cancelled. For a time, some people began to worry about the sales of new energy vehicles, and some people said that new energy vehicles have been supported by limited licenses and subsidies in recent years, if there is no such policy, it will be "cool".
So is the current situation of new energy vehicles really what these people think? Obviously not, the reason why Yi Pinjun answered so affirmatively is obviously that there are traces to follow.
1
The era of relying on restricted license plates and subsidizing the sale of cars is over
Nowadays, the sales of new energy vehicles are still concentrated in limited license cities, yes, but the proportion is decreasing. In 2020, there are reports that the sales of new energy in non-restricted cities have exceeded half, accounting for 51%. Some data from car companies also confirm this, such as Tesla, from January to August 2020, Model 3 sales in non-restricted cities accounted for 40% of total sales. Weilai Automobile has also said that from the perspective of penetration rate and delivery volume, it has also been favored by consumers in many non-restricted cities.
Let's look at the recent changes in new energy subsidies. From 2020 to 2022, new energy subsidies will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively. Now that 2022 has arrived, new energy subsidies will meet the biggest decline in recent years. According to the new standard, electric vehicles with a range of 300 to 400 km are 3900 yuan less than the previous year; electric vehicles with a range greater than 400 km are 5400 yuan less than the previous year.
If new energy vehicles really rely on subsidies to sell cars, then this year's sales will definitely be reflected, but what about reality? According to the latest data from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in January 2022, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China reached 347,000 units, although there was a decline from the previous month, but this achievement was not worse than last year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten", indicating that the subsidy decline did have an impact on the sales of new energy vehicles, but it was not large. In addition, by 2023, new energy subsidies will be completely abolished. According to the speculation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in mainland China will account for 25% in 2025, which reflects the confidence of professional institutions in the development of new energy vehicles.
From the change in the attitude of car companies towards subsidies, it can also be seen that today's new energy vehicles are not worried about selling. In 2019, the national policy raised the threshold for new energy vehicles to receive subsidies, lowered the amount of subsidies for various grades, and local subsidies were also ordered to be stopped. At that time, the car companies were afraid that there would be no sales from now on, and it was really "cutting meat" to maintain the previous price unchanged. However, after the subsidy decline of 30% in 2022, some car companies directly raised the price, and some car companies said that the previous price continued until March at most, and the car company would not ask for a long time to maintain the price unchanged. It shows that most car companies today are no longer afraid of subsidy decline, and what is reflected behind it is that new energy vehicles can already stand firm in the car market with strength.
2
New energy vehicles have capital based on the automobile market
In fact, by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, we can also draw the conclusion that today's new energy vehicle sales have long ceased to rely on license plates and subsidies.
As more and more car companies invest in the field of new energy, and the scale of the battery manufacturing industry continues to expand, new energy vehicles are becoming cheaper and cheaper. Nowadays, within 150,000, you can already buy quite good new energy vehicles, SUCH as BYD Qin, Geometry A, AION S, etc. And the performance of these cars is often better than that of the same level of fuel vehicles at the same price, so that ordinary family cars can also talk about performance and driving pleasure.
Of course, the most attractive point of new energy vehicles to consumers is that it is very provincial. Let's give you a calculation, assuming that the fuel tank of a fuel vehicle is 50L, the fuel consumption is 8L/100km, then its full fuel mileage is 625km. The price of No. 92 gasoline in Beijing today is 7.84 yuan / liter, and the 50L fuel tank is 392 yuan, which is calculated to cost 0.62 yuan per kilometer.
What about new energy vehicles? Taking the example of an electric vehicle with higher sales, let's assume that an electric vehicle has a battery energy of 44.9 kWh and a cruising range of 405 km. The average electricity bill of the State Grid public fast charging pile in Beijing is 1.4 yuan / kWh, so it costs about 63 yuan to fill this electric vehicle. The mileage is calculated according to the 20% off in summer and 40% off in winter, and the maximum cost per kilometer is calculated to be 0.26 yuan, and the minimum cost is 0.19 yuan. If it is a private pile, each kWh of electricity is more than 2 times cheaper than public installation, and the cost per kilometer is much less than that of a fuel vehicle.
In terms of maintenance costs, electric vehicles also have advantages over fuel vehicles. Fuel vehicles must change the oil and filter for each maintenance, plus the cost of man-hours, and it is necessary to say less than two or three hundred at a time. Other parts that need to be replaced regularly include air filters, air conditioning filters, spark plugs, etc. In addition, gasoline engines are prone to carbon deposition over time, and they need to be cleaned up regularly, which is where money is spent. Electric vehicles are much more worry-free, at least the oil, filter, spark plug and carbon deposits have nothing to do with it. Daily maintenance is basically the inspection of the three-electric system, and the replacement of the air conditioning filter, which does not cost a few dollars.
In addition, new energy vehicles are often bundled with intelligence, with better networking systems and intelligent driving systems than fuel vehicles. These are also the reasons why new energy vehicles can now stand on the market.
Based on the above analysis, the sales of new energy vehicles have passed the era of excessive dependence on subsidies and limited licenses. Nowadays, with more affordable prices, better power performance, cheaper car costs, etc., they already have the capital to base themselves on the car market. Compared with new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles may only be left with convenient refueling and reliable winter endurance. However, the author believes that according to the current development speed of new energy vehicles, these problems will be solved sooner or later.