Recently, the Ningde era has given people a feeling of "not being close to people"!
After the stock price of "Trillion Ning Wang" fell sharply, it caused extensive discussion in the industry, and catheter times also responded subsequently, and issued a solemn statement, saying that CATL was sanctioned by the United States, excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and talked with Tesla are malicious rumors, seriously affecting their reputation, and have called the police and will be investigated for the legal responsibility of rumor-mongers according to law.
Coincidentally, after the solemn statement was released, the news that the Ningde era sued Fengchao Energy was exposed. For the decline in the stock price of the Ningde era, many industry experts believe that it is a normal phenomenon, and the recent response of the Ningde era is somewhat "over-stressed".
"Trillion Ning King" began to panic?
1
"Blocking" of blade batteries
Zhang Xin, an auto industry analyst at Guotai Junan, told Yipin Automobile: "The core reason for the sharp decline in the stock price of the Ningde era is the impact of competitors on it. "From the current market environment to the Ningde era is indeed facing very large competitive pressure, when the Ningde era with the help of ternary lithium batteries to achieve industry status, the market began to turn to lithium iron phosphate batteries, when the Ningde era to lithium iron phosphate batteries transformation, and then there is a BYD blade battery."
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the total sales of domestic power batteries in 2021 will be 186GWh, an increase of 182.3% year-on-year, of which the cumulative sales of ternary batteries are 79.6GWh, an increase of 128.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries are 106GWh, an increase of 245.0% year-on-year.
In terms of loading capacity, the cumulative loading volume of domestic power batteries was 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year, of which the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 74.3GWh, an increase of 91.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 79.8GWh, an increase of 227.4% year-on-year.
Whether it is sales or loading volume, lithium iron phosphate batteries are ahead of ternary batteries in terms of quantity and growth rate, and the latest released data is the same, the output of ternary batteries in January 2022 is 10.8GWh, an increase of 57.9% year-on-year, and the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 18.8GWh, an increase of 261.8% year-on-year. In terms of loading capacity, in January 2022, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 7.3GWh, an increase of 35.2% year-on-year, and the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 8.9GWh, an increase of 172.7% year-on-year.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are developing rapidly, and BYD blade batteries are regarded as the first choice in lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is not difficult to explain why when BYD releases blade batteries, Ningde era will "fight with BYD".
What makes the Ningde era feel more "panicked" is that BYD is expanding the production of blade batteries. According to BYD's plan, the total production capacity of blade batteries will reach 100GWh by the end of 2022, and BYD is likely to provide blade batteries for Tesla Model 2. Judging from Tesla's performance in domestic and foreign markets, if BYD provides Tesla with blade batteries, it will be a valuable business that may change the market pattern.
Looking at the world, Tesla's latest official news shows that the pilot factory in California produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January and is expected to start delivering the new Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries. On January 27, 2022, LG New Energy was officially listed in South Korea, when LG New Energy CEO Quan Yingshou said: "In the global competition of the electric vehicle battery market, LG New Energy will soon beat Chinese competitor Ningde Era. ”
It can be seen that the Ningde era is not only blocked by BYD in China, but also has many competitors in the international market, and the Ningde era is "under pressure".
2
Car companies need Plan B
2021 car market can be said to be spent in the environment of raw material supply shortage, in addition to the tight supply of chips, there is also a gap in battery supply, Hive Energy Chairman and CEO Yang Hongxin said in an interview: "The current battery gap in the new energy automobile industry is 30%-50%, and it is expected that until 2025, battery production capacity is tight." In addition, data released by SNE Research, a global new energy market research agency, also shows that by 2023, the global demand for electric vehicles for power batteries will reach 406GWh, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335GWh, a gap of about 18%.
For the supply of raw materials in the automotive industry, Fu Bingfeng, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also gave advice: "The automotive industry needs to consider the supply of raw materials from a long-term perspective, improve the sensitivity to changes in market trends, and ensure the stability of the supply chain. ”
At present, most car companies are trying to ensure the stability of the supply chain, will choose a number of suppliers to supply raw materials, power batteries as the core components of new energy vehicles, the stability of their supply chain is naturally to focus on the guarantee, and want to ensure that the battery supply is sufficient, relying on the Ningde era alone is not enough.
In 2021, the official of Extreme Kr has publicly stated that the battery pack of ZEEKR 001 comes from two suppliers: CATL and Weirui. At the beginning of 2022, it was revealed that Xiaopeng Automobile will gradually introduce AVIC innovation to replace the battery of the Ningde era, although the news was debunked by Xiaopeng, but Xiaopeng did not deny that it was introducing AVIC innovation.
From the current domestic power battery enterprises loading volume, Ningde era is still at the top of the list, car companies in the choice of power battery suppliers, Ningde era is still the priority choice, but in order to ensure the stability of battery supply, Ningde era is not the only choice, which has to be paid attention to the Ningde era.
3
Looking forward to the appearance of the "killer"
On January 27, CATL issued a performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 150.75% to 195.52% year-on-year, and the market value of CATL has exceeded 50 times the profit. Xue Xu, an associate professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, said: "According to market standards, the market value of enterprises generally does not exceed 50 times the profit, otherwise it is overvalued. ”
Now that the stock price of the Ningde era has fallen, it can also be considered the bursting of the valuation bubble, but Zhang Xin, an analyst in the Automotive industry of Guotai Junan, said: "The stock price of the Ningde era has not yet reached the ceiling, and the launch and production of new technologies will also make the stock price of the Ningde era rise, and even break through the highest point." ”
At present, the latest remarkable achievement of CATL in the field of technology is the launch of its subsidiary Times Electric Service brand EVOGO "Lexing Battery Change" and a series of supporting solutions. However, how much imagination space can be brought by the power exchange business, many industry experts have different views. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said in an interview with Yipin Automobile: "Do mobile phones still need spare batteries now? Why did Tesla's power exchange business only do it for a short time? Obviously, the future C-end market charging is the mainstream. ”
Although the cake of the new energy market is getting bigger and bigger, the number of people coming in to grab food is also increasing. Recently, the Ningde era and China Innovation Airlines (formerly known as AVIC Lithium Battery), Tafil New Energy have fought lawsuits, and the lawsuit against Fengchao Energy, all of which are self-protection. Of course, this also reflects the subtle changes in the power battery market pattern from the side. In the face of competitors from all over the world, can the "Trillion Ning King" still maintain a dominant position, and can it show a new killer skill? All deserve our continuous attention.