At the beginning of the Year of the Tiger, the Ningde era encountered "opening the door black".
In the first working week after the holiday, the stock price of CATL plummeted by 17%, and the market value evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan.
Under the heavy blow of the stock price, CATL quickly organized an investor research activity to stabilize the "military heart", and the chairman Zeng Yuqun personally sat down to respond to the concerns of the market.
On February 14, more than 50 investors participated in the event, including Hillhouse Capital, Hongshang Capital, Tencent Investment, Temasek, Sequoia Capital, Fidelity Fund and other well-known investment institutions. Some investment institutions said that this activity was temporarily decided by the Ningde era, so the event was notified in the morning of the same day.
According to the information disclosed on February 15, at the event, CATL replied to issues related to the layout of raw materials, the construction of factories in the United States, the expansion of production by friendly businesses, the strategy of new tracks, and future challenges, and also responded positively to recent rumors.
During the decline in the stock price of the Ningde era, there were a series of news on his body, such as sanctions by the United States, the removal of the ChiNext weight index, and the collapse of the price talks with Tesla. The day before the event, CATL publicly said that the above news was rumored and had been reported to the public security organs.
Under the "remedy" of the Ningde era, its stock price quickly picked up in the second week after the holiday, and as of February 17, the total share price of the Ningde era rose by more than 10%, and the total market value rose by more than 100 billion yuan compared with the first week.
In this regard, a number of financial sources said that there have been expectations for the stock price correction of the Ningde era, and the fundamental reason for the decline in its stock price is the inflated valuation, and the rumors in various aspects have added another "fire" to the Ningde era.
This scenario is similar to the previous two years. After the Spring Festival in 2020 and 2021, the Ningde era also encountered a phased stock price plunge. The reason is that Zhang Yi, CEO of Ai Media Consulting, believes that this is related to the psychological gap of investors, as well as the support of the Ningde era itself and the market pressure it faces.
Although the unfavorable start of the year has been alleviated, it is still unknown whether the road behind the Ningde era will be smooth.
What's the problem with "high valuation"?
Rumors about the Ningde era have not stopped since the Spring Festival.
On February 8, the Network rumored that "CATL is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of being sanctioned by the United States", and then the NINGDE Era side responded that the news was untrue.
On February 11, there were rumors that the Ningde era would be "excluded" from the ChiNext weight index. Rumors say that this is because the weight of equity such as the Ningde era is too high, "kidnapping" the ChiNext index.
On the same day, pictures related to the words "Ningde Era and Tesla Price Talks Collapsed" were circulated on the Internet, which became the decisive factor in the ningde era alarm. This information has also been denied by Tesla's side, which said that "the talk of collapse is indeed not true."
For the previous rumors, CATL said in response to investors that it did not directly involve the use of American technology in the battery production process, and only the chip on the BMS originated from the United States, and the chip currently has alternative technology in China.
In the view of an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, the Ningde era is a representative of high valuation, and the above-mentioned bearish rumors actually amplify the market's concerns about the valuation of the Ningde era.
As an international power battery supply giant, for a long time, the profit of CATL in this business line accounted for more than 70%.
Affected by the decline in subsidies in the new energy automobile industry, the cost of new energy vehicles is in line with traditional fuel vehicles, and the cost reduction pressure of downstream new energy vehicles is transmitted to power battery enterprises, and the gross profit margin of the power battery industry shows a downward trend. According to the financial report of CATL, from 2016 to the third quarter of 2021, the average price of its power battery system fell by more than 1.5 yuan / Wh, the gross profit margin fell by 13%, and the net profit fell by more than 15%.
Compared with the declining performance, the cost paid by the Ningde era has been rising. From 2020 to 2021, the price of key raw materials for power batteries has increased several times. From the beginning of 2022 to the present, the price of raw materials such as battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is still in an upward trend, rising by more than 30%.
In terms of investor research activities, CATL also admitted that the rise in raw material prices has had a certain impact on itself. That's what investors are worried about. In the short term, the amplitude and space of the decline in the Ningde era are not sufficient, and there will be inertia to test the momentum and potential energy of the lows.
"Although the stock price has pulled back, the core of judging the future trend is the performance, and in the short term, the magnitude and space of the decline in the Ningde era are not sufficient." Some investors said so. The above-mentioned financial analysts believe that there is still great uncertainty about whether the stock price of the Ningde era can be stabilized.
However, there are also many institutions that are optimistic. Among them, Everbright Securities and Soochow Securities both gave "buy" ratings, while Zhongtai Securities gave an "overweight" attitude. Zhang Yi also believes that there is still room for growth in the future of the Ningde era.
Internal and external troubles double "pinch attack"
Why have there been so many negative rumors related to the Ningde era in the short term?
Some analysts believe that the Ningde era is almost in a thriving position in the power battery market, and there are rumors that it is a normal phenomenon. The density of rumors is mainly related to the current white-hot competition in the power battery industry, and almost every power battery company is eager to cut the cake of the market.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from 2019 to 2021, the market share of power battery installed in the Ningde era exceeded 50%, of which 52% in 2021.
However, Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of the Yiwei Economic Research Institute and president of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, believes that the share of more than 50% of the domestic market in the Ningde era is not sustainable, and its market share will decline with the development of "latecomers" and the emergence of new technologies.
In 2019, with the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the gradual increase of the Chinese government's encouragement and support for foreign-funded enterprises to invest in China, China's electric vehicle market has attracted foreign power battery companies such as LG and SKI to deploy in China. In the following two years of battery installed capacity rankings, LG new energy listed.
In addition to competing with the Ningde era in the Chinese market, in the global market, LG New Energy is also a "fierce enemy" of the Ningde era.
On February 7, South Korean market research firm SNE Research released the 2021 global power battery installed capacity ranking. In the list, CATL ranked first with a market share of 33%, followed by LG with a market share of 20%. But LG is growing significantly faster than in the Ningde era. In 2019, LG's market share was only 10%, and the market share of the Ningde era was 28%.
LG New Energy has made no secret of its ambitions for the Ningde era, and recently said that considering the current backlog of battery orders on hand, they are confident of surpassing the Ningde era in terms of market share and becoming the world's first.
The "external troubles" have not been eliminated, and the "internal worries" of the Ningde era are also increasing.
Under the influence of the continuous rise of new energy vehicles, many power battery companies have increased their production capacity planning. Among them, the production capacity of China Innovation Airlines during the 14th Five-Year Plan is more than 500GWh; the honeycomb energy is planned to reach 600GWh in 2025; and the capacity planning target of Guoxuan Hi-Tech in 2025 is 300GWh. CATL believes that its production capacity will exceed 600GWh in 2025.
For the similar goal planning of friends and businessmen and themselves, the Ningde era still does not care much. "The expansion of friendly business does not mean that it will increase competition, and products with innovative material systems and structural systems are worthy of competition." CATL replied to investors in this way.
The screenshot is derived from the NINGDE times announcement
Obviously, the CATL era believes that friends and businessmen are not stumbling blocks on its development path. So, what are the facts?
In 2021, under the influence of supply chain shortages, the market competitiveness of power battery companies will be further strengthened. In order to ensure the stability of battery supply, the main engine factory began to choose "de-Ningization", actively introduced a number of battery suppliers, and built a diversified supply system, thereby driving the installed capacity growth of second-line battery companies. For example, China Innovation Airlines "took" away the fourth largest customer of the Ningde era, and Great Wall Motors completed the supply of batteries themselves, and also successfully "disappeared" from the list of TOP10 customers in the Ningde era.
At the same time, the supply chain has also ignited the pursuit of new energy core technologies by OEMs. For example, Honeycomb Energy, a power battery company under Great Wall Motors, has completed 5 consecutive rounds of financing, with a valuation of 46 billion yuan. In addition, at the end of January, Dongfeng Motor said that the first batch of 50 Dongfeng-Ganfeng high-specific solid-state battery vehicles developed in cooperation with Ganfeng Lithium was delivered in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, becoming the world's first solid-state battery vehicle demonstration operation project.
"Power batteries can have a direct impact on the operation effect of vehicles, and car companies must master their core technologies." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said.
If the development of foreign-funded enterprises is the first "encirclement and suppression" of the Ningde era, then the rise of domestic power battery companies is the second "encirclement and suppression".
Variables, Tesla
Entering 2022, the Ningde era is facing the third "encirclement and suppression".
As the largest customer in the CATL era, Tesla, which accounts for 17.5% of the installed capacity, is evident in its importance.
However, this customer has also been a lot of variables in the recent past.
In the rumors after the Spring Festival, along with the news that "the Ningde era and Tesla talks collapsed", there was also "BYD will supply Tesla with 200,000 units / year battery order". Unlike the attitude of both sides denying the previous news, when the media asked for the after-news, BYD and Tesla both remained silent.
In fact, as early as July 2021, there were already rumors that "Tesla will cooperate with BYD", but it was denied by BYD at that time. However, in the following months, there were also relevant information about the cooperation between the two, and BYD said that it would not comment, neither acknowledging nor denying it. In the eyes of industry insiders, the biggest advantage of Tesla's cooperation with BYD is that it can further reduce the cost of batteries.
In addition to BYD, Tesla also has another variable - the "cannibalization" of the share of the Ningde era after the mass production of the 4680 battery landed.
It is understood that the 4680 battery is a self-developed cylindrical battery released by Tesla in 2020. The battery is 80 mm long, with 500% increased energy density, 600% higher output power, 16% higher cruising range and 14% lower cost. Tesla's electric car with 4680 batteries can not only reduce production costs, but also increase the range.
At present, the mainstream of the market is the square battery under the leadership of the Ningde era. However, compared with the mainstream batteries in the market, the 4680 battery is undoubtedly a better choice for car companies. Lin Jian, CTO of BAK Power, believes that after the 4680 battery lands, there is no doubt that it will seize the current square battery market, especially in the next 5 years, the market space of the 4680 battery will become larger and larger.
In terms of industrial layout, Tesla's four gigafactories in California, Texas, Nevada, and Berlin, Germany, produce 4680 batteries. Of course, CATL is also one of its 4680 battery partners, but the battery is still in the research and development stage, and the progress is far less than tesla and Japanese and Korean companies.
On February 19, Tesla announced that it had produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January. According to the forecast, 1 million batteries can meet the production of 1,000 Tesla Model Y. Foreign media reported that there are currently more than 100 Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries ready for delivery, but the specific delivery location has not yet been disclosed.
In addition, in early February, Panasonic said it expected small batch production of the 4680 battery to begin in April, and said that once it can deliver the 4680 battery, it will first supply Tesla.
This means that Tesla's own chips have increased, and the 4680 battery will have an adverse impact on the supply and market share of the Ningde era.
Some institutions expect that the 4680 battery is expected to lead the development direction of the power battery industry in 2022. At that time, what should the Ningde era take to maintain the status of battery giants?
The author | Gong Chenqian
Editor| Zhang Yixiao
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