With the start of 2022, the sales of heavy-duty trucks in 2021, which we are most concerned about, are fixed at 1.395 million units, down 13.8% year-on-year, while overall, truck production and sales in 2021 were 4.166 million units and 4.288 million units, down 12.8% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively.
Among them, only medium trucks (sales of 179,000 units, up 12.3% year-on-year) increased sales, while heavy trucks and micro trucks both fell by more than 10%. Perhaps because in 2021, the field of all-young cards is undergoing a process of standardization and compliance, resulting in some users turning to medium-sized truck models.
Taking the field of heavy-duty trucks as an example, in 2021, under the influence of the comprehensive switchover of China VI, the heavy-duty truck market has shown the trend characteristics of "high open and low, first rise and then suppress": the first half of the year is in full swing, and sales account for nearly 75% of the market share of the whole year; the second half of the year is cool, and the market enters the dilemma of "falling and falling".
Then came 2022, the coolness of the truck industry has not dissipated, and major manufacturers have become more cautious when announcing annual tasks, while also emphasizing the idea that the expectations of the market industry this year are not too high.
Manufacturers 2022 expectations are not high Heavy truck sales of around one million
Although 2021 sales are pre-cooled, but still high, by 2022, may not be so optimistic, a large number of replacement demand has been overdrafted in advance, the industry generally predicts that the demand for heavy trucks will decline, the total demand will fall from 1.4 million in 2021 to 1 million to 1.2 million, and some manufacturers announced the target or future outlook also proves this view:
Liberation: In 2022, the total demand for medium- and heavy-duty trucks will fall back to about 1.2 million units;
Sinotruk: the annual sales of heavy-duty trucks in the industry will be about 800,000-900,000 units in 2022;
Hanma Technology Group: the total market capacity of about 1.05 million vehicles, new energy heavy truck sales of about 25,000 units;
Weichai, Shandong Heavy Industry: The downward pressure on the heavy-duty truck industry is greater, and the scale of medium- and heavy-duty trucks is expected to ≤ 1.2 million units;
Prediction research on the heavy-duty commercial vehicle market of Kerui Consulting: The heavy-duty truck market returns to the scale of one million units, and the medium-truck market is in the scale of 170,000-180,000 vehicles.
Overall, the competition in 2022 will be more intense, not only will manufacturers need to compete for shares in a smaller market demand, but also the new national five cars that were not fully digested last year also need to be digested, further increasing sales pressure. This tests the manufacturer's grasp of user needs and services.
The downward revision of the expectations for 2022 is not only because too much user demand has been overdrawn in previous years, but also a cyclical change from the historical data.
Looking back, in 2005-2010, heavy-duty truck sales gradually rose, and finally exceeded one million for the first time in 2010, mainly affected by the policy at that time, the market environment was very good, but also overdrafted in advance, resulting in the subsequent 2011-2015, has been in a state of decline, until the trough.
Subsequently, in 2016-2020, it once again peaked, and continued to run at a high level, until 2020, heavy-duty truck sales entered an unprecedented 1.623 million units, which mainly depended on the multiple impacts of policy factors such as the elimination of China III, gas vehicles, charging by axle, and super-control, but this also overdrafted future sales, and also led to a decline in heavy-duty truck sales in 2021, which may be just the beginning.
According to the cyclical changes in previous years, the decline in demand in the commercial vehicle industry, or the decline in demand for heavy truck sales, may continue for some time. 2022 may be the worst of the last five years, but it could also be the best year of the next five years.
Market pre-cooling there is still no shortage of growth points
For the changes in demand for medium and heavy trucks in 2022, FAW Jiefang also made some interpretations from multiple dimensions at the annual meeting, predicting that demand will decline significantly, and market competition will be more intense, in 2022, China's economy will be stable and progressive as the main tone, the economic growth rate is not less than 5%, infrastructure investment and consumption of truck demand will gradually recover, it is expected that the total demand for medium and heavy trucks will fall back to about 1.2 million.
"Affected by factors such as the economic recovery cycle of the Winter Olympics, some demand will move back, and the pace of demand will show a trend of low opening and high going; the market will enter the stage of stock competition, and the cruelty of competition will be further enhanced, becoming the new normal of the medium and heavy truck industry."
The relevant person in charge of FAW Jiefang said that under the new normal, there are also four new opportunities in the market. "First, the recovery of infrastructure projects brings engineering opportunities; the second is the double-carbon strategy to stimulate new energy opportunities; the third is the end of China III, and the restriction of National IV is to bring opportunities for regulatory updates; the fourth is to ensure people's livelihood, specialized transportation, and bring market segmentation opportunities."
Overall, although the sales of heavy-duty trucks will decline, but for manufacturers, there are still many growth opportunities, in addition to the advance layout of products, investment in after-sales service must also be increased, which is also an important part of the market competition. (Text/Chen Fengchuan)