Subsidies decline, car prices rise, delivery delays, premiums rise...
Since the beginning of the year, under the influence of multiple factors, some people in the industry have been quite "bearish" on new energy sales at the beginning of the year.
It is gratifying that the expected "big shock" in the new energy market did not appear on time, but showed an indomitable and vigorous upward momentum, which exceeded expectations.
According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 347,000 units in January, up 132.0% year-on-year and down 27.0% month-on-month.
The huge difference between the chain and the year-on-year is not difficult to understand, one is the explosive potential of the development of the new energy market, and the other is the seasonal influencing factors of the Spring Festival holiday.
In other words, compared with previous years, the impact of subsidy decline on new energy sales has been greatly "weakened".
This signal is particularly important in 2022, when subsidies are completely withdrawn. This also means that the new energy market is becoming more and more mature, and the market-driven trend is becoming more and more obvious.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, once said: "The original sales of new energy passenger cars in 2022 were expected to be 4.8 million, and should now be adjusted to more than 5.5 million, and the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate will reach about 22%. ”
The China Automobile Association also predicts that in 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles will increase by 47% year-on-year to 5 million units.
Obviously, from the words of all parties and even the data of the market, it is not difficult to prove that the new energy market is about to usher in the moment of "rushing and running wild" and become the protagonist of this era.
But under the grand scene, there are still far-reaching worries that cannot be ignored.
"Structural concerns" on the product
As we all know, the current domestic new energy market is still polarized.
One pole is more than 200,000 high-end models represented by brands such as Weilai, Tesla, and Xiaopeng, and the other pole is 50,000 and below models represented by Hongguang MINI.
The surge in sales in 2021 is mainly due to the growth of the A00-class market and the increase in plug-in hybrid models.
These two products represent the two directions of the structural adjustment of new energy models, one shrinking and the other expanding.
Among them, the growth potential of the A00-level market seems to be slightly insufficient.
For example, in January's monthly sales of models, although Wuling Hongguang MINI EV still occupies the top spot, its year-on-year growth rate has dropped to 3.5%, ranking second in the growth rate of the models on the list.
From the perspective of market share, the proportion of A00 sales in the entire new energy sales volume fell from 47% in January last year to 32% in January this year.
Looking at the future, it still has a certain sinking potential, but the growth rate is bound to slow down.
Contrary to the slowdown in the growth of mini-cars, plug-in hybrids are reviving.
From the perspective of sales volume, the proportion of plug-in and hybrid models in the overall market of new energy vehicles has increased from 15% in January last year to 19% in January this year, with greater room for growth.
To some extent, the shrinking of mini cars and the expansion of plug-in hybrid vehicles are all positive manifestations of the structural adjustment of new energy vehicle products.
Kung Fu Automobile believes that the biggest problem in the structure of new energy products at this stage is still the lack of a universal sense of the "national car" - A-class car.
The A-Class is the most difficult to develop of any model.
Consumer requirements are diverse, cost control is strict, gross profit margin is low... These are all practical problems faced by A-class cars. However, the consumer group of A-class cars is the largest, and it is also the most considerable "volume market".
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 17-19 million in 2030, exceeding half of the total sales of automobiles that year.
Focusing on the future, to support such a huge market, relying on cheap mini-cars is not enough, relying on luxury cars of more than 300,000 is not enough, and only mid-range A-class cars in the price range of 100,000-200,000 are likely to support this number.
From this point of view, this is precisely the weakest area for domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers.
"Overcapacity concerns"
Since last year, the head "Wei Xiaoli" pattern has been repeatedly shuffled, the second and third-line "dark horses" have frequently appeared, traditional car companies have turned back to fight back, and the list of new energy sales has changed uncertainly.
At present, 10 domestic car companies have broken through the "10,000 vehicles a month" mark, ushered in the "scale effect" stage, and crossed the threshold of competition in the second half.
However, behind these "front-runners", there are still many car companies that are "silent". Even some of the loud cross-border Internet cars are not real cars.
Behind this, it is not the lack of cores or the slow progress that can be explained.
Kung Fu Auto believes that with the "Matthew effect" of the entire industry, the "front-runner" will become faster and faster, and the follow-up "chaser" will become more and more difficult.
The gap is widening wider and wider, and if there is no big opportunity, these backward "chasers" will most likely have to follow behind and eat ashes.
And the increase in the number of "chasers" who come with capital has also brought another problem - a sharp increase in production capacity.
Nowadays, with the re-frenzy of capital, the production capacity of these "chasers" is rising at an alarming scale, and the problem of serious overcapacity may become a time bomb in the future.
The problem of overcapacity left over from the barbaric growth of the past seems to be repeated.
Up to now, we are mostly paying attention to the highlight moments of several car-making forces at the head, but we rarely see a large number of car brands silently bankruptcy and collapse.
And behind them, who pays attention to the "chicken feathers in one place" and the aftermath work?
This question may also be worth pondering.
Kung Fu shoots
At present, in the stock market, including new energy vehicles, in addition to Tesla's trillion-dollar boom, there are only a few other 100 billion market value car companies in the world, even if the scale of tens of billions is only a few dozen.
This shows that success will always be in the minority.
It is true that China's new energy vehicle industry is still in the knockout stage, but this industry is destined to usher in a deeper "two-eight differentiation" reshuffle in the future.
Man has no far-sighted worries, but will have near-term worries.
While we rejoice at the doubling of sales of new energy vehicles, we may as well have a little more foresight about reality.