January and January national passenger car market review
Retail: Retail sales in the passenger car market reached 2.092 million units in January 2022, down 4.4% year-on-year and down 0.6% from December 2021.
Since the Spring Festival holiday starts on January 31, but the pre-holiday production suspension and consumer car purchase will be a few days earlier, so january due to the Spring Festival factor loss of 3-5 days, it is estimated that about 15% of the production and sales loss. Therefore, the month-on-month and year-on-year performance of retail sales in January were both good growth.
Since the autumn and winter, there have been repeated epidemic prevention and control, but this year's Spring Festival "local New Year" and other epidemic prevention calls have been relaxed compared with the same period last year, the scale of residents returning to their hometowns has increased significantly, and the number of passengers sent nationwide has increased by more than 40% year-on-year. The return of large-scale residents to their hometowns has formed a certain support for the purchase of cars in some central and central provinces, counties and townships, and the increase in pre-holiday promotion efforts has also boosted the tide of car purchases back to their hometowns.
With the gradual strengthening of production and batch sales in the past few months, the overall market supply has shown a warming trend, and manufacturers have actively welcomed the "opening red" of the New Year, especially the terminal promotion has continued to shrink sharply to November after July 2021, and the promotion has increased slightly in December, bringing retail sales to continue to strengthen.
Due to the improvement of the inventory level of the models on sale at the dealer level and the continuous optimization of the structure, the supply rhythm of the manufacturers has gradually met expectations. With the arrival of the pre-holiday sales season, dealers significantly increased their terminal discounts in January, and their sales enthusiasm increased rapidly, achieving a stronger terminal retail.
Luxury car retail sales in January were 290,000 units, down 5% year-on-year and up 18% month-on-month. Retail sales of luxury cars at the beginning of the year have strengthened sharply month-on-month, indicating the strong growth trend of traditional luxury cars in the new year.
In January, 940,000 self-owned brand retail units were sold, up 11% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month. The domestic retail share of independent brands in January was 45.5%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year; compared with the annual share of 41% in 2021, an increase of 4.5 percentage points. In January, the wholesale market share of independent brands was 46.4%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points over the same period, and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared with the annual share of 44% in 2021. The head enterprises of independent brands have performed very strongly and have achieved significant increases in the new energy market, so traditional car brands such as BYD and Chery have shown high growth year-on-year.
Mainstream joint venture brand retail sales of 860,000 units in January, down 17% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month. The local sporadic epidemic has affected the production rhythm of megacities such as Tianjin and inhibited the increase in production and marketing. The retail share of Japanese brands in January was 19.2%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. The share of Ashkenazi brands was 23.5%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The retail share of the US market reached 8.2%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The legal share increased by 0.1 percentage points.
Exports: Passenger car exports (including vehicles and CKDs) under the statistics of the China Passenger Transport Association in January were 169,000 units, an increase of 91% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles accounted for 30% of the total exports. In January, the export of independent brands reached 107,000 units, an increase of 56% year-on-year, and the export of joint ventures and luxury brands was 61,000 units, with a prominent year-on-year increase.
Production: Passenger car production in January was 2.059 million units, up 10.4% y/y and down 16.5% month-on-month, slightly weaker. Among them, the production of luxury brands increased by 16% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month; the production of joint venture brands increased by 2% year-on-year and fell by 20% month-on-month; and the production of independent brands increased by 17% year-on-year and decreased by 14% month-on-month.
The production and sales growth of the automobile market in January was relatively good, although there was a slight loss in production in some areas, but the chip supply continued to improve, which promoted the rise in production and sales in January.
Wholesale: In January, the wholesale sales of manufacturers were 2.172 million units, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year and 8.2% month-on-month, and the performance of some car companies restricted by production was differentiated.
Inventory: The first three quarters of 2021 experienced a special cycle from destocking to approaching safety stocks, and the inventory of manufacturers in the fourth quarter was rapidly replenished, laying a strong performance for retail and exports in January. In January, the inventory of manufacturers fell by 110,000 vehicles, and the channel inventory fell by 90,000 vehicles month-on-month; January of the calendar year is an important node for destocking, and the inventory removal in January this year is better, laying the foundation for the opening of the New Year.
New Energy: Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 412,000 units in January, up 141.4% year-on-year and down 18.5% month-on-month, consistent with the characteristics of January 2021. Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 347,000 units in January, up 132.0% year-on-year and down 27.0% month-on-month, in line with the 25% decline in January 2021.
The trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles before the Spring Festival has formed a synchronous and stronger feature, and the demand for first-time entry-level consumption and traditional car replacement before the Spring Festival is strong, coupled with the strong growth of new energy vehicles, which promotes the overall growth of retail sales in the passenger car market.
In the new energy market, due to the impact of centralized delivery at the end of last year, sales in early January were weak, but there was a significant recovery in the second and third weeks. Overall, although there are still sporadic local cases of the epidemic in China, especially in megacities with main sales of new energy such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Shenzhen, the relatively mild epidemic prevention measures have no obvious impact on residents' travel and car purchase consumption.
1) Wholesale: The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in January was 19.0%, an increase of more than 10 percentage points compared with the penetration rate of 8.4% in January 2021. In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands was 32.0%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 22.9%, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint venture brands was only 2.7%. In January, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 130.4% year-on-year to 333,000 units, and the sales of plug-in hybrids were 79,000 units, an increase of 202.1% year-on-year. In January, the sales of high-end electric vehicle models increased strongly, and the trend of low-end electric vehicles was also strong, and the dumbbell structure of the pure electric market improved, of which A00-class wholesale sales of 105,000 vehicles, accounting for 32% of pure electric vehicles; A0-class wholesale sales of 51,000, accounting for 15% of pure electric vehicles; A-class electric vehicles accounted for 22% of pure electric vehicles; B-class electric vehicles reached 101,000 units, down 14% month-on-month, accounting for 30% of pure electric shares.
2) Retail: The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points from the penetration rate of 6.8% in January 2021. In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 31.4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 10.2%, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 2.5%.
3) Exports: In January, 52,000 new energy vehicles were exported, maintaining strong growth, Tesla China exported 40,499 vehicles, SAIC passenger car exports 4,814 new energy vehicles, Dongfeng EasyJet exported 4,267 vehicles, Geely Automobile 444 vehicles, Great Wall Motors 408 vehicles, SAIC Maxus 406 vehicles, BYD 313 vehicles, other car companies new energy vehicles mainly in the domestic market.
4) Car companies: In January, the new energy passenger car market diversified, BYD pure electric and plug-and-mix dual drive to consolidate the leading position of its own brand new energy; the traditional car companies represented by SCO Group and GAC Group performed relatively prominently in the new energy sector. There are 11 enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles, a significant increase of 6 over the same period, including: BYD 93,101, Tesla China 59,845, SAIC-GM-Wuling 40,007, Chery Automobile 21,179, Geely Automobile 17,036, GAC Aian 16,031, SAIC Passenger Car 14,414, Great Wall Motor 13,781, Xiaopeng Automobile 12,922, Ideal Car 12,268, and Nezha Car 11,009.
5) New forces: In January, xiaopeng, ideal, Weilai, Nezha, zero run, Weima and other new forces car companies sales performance was generally better year-on-year and month-on-month, especially Xiaopeng, ideal, Nezha exceeded 10,000 vehicles, zero run and other second echelon enterprises also quickly reached more than 5,000 monthly sales. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, 13,661 new energy vehicles were wholesaled by North and South Volkswagen, accounting for 59% of the mainstream joint venture, and Volkswagen's firm electrification transformation strategy has achieved initial results. SAIC-GM's sales of 4249 units are also excellent, and other joint ventures and luxury brands are still waiting to be strengthened.
6) General hybrid: The wholesale number of ordinary hybrid passenger cars in January was 67,000 units, up 58% year-on-year and down 20% month-on-month. Among them, Toyota has 38741 vehicles, Honda 18516 vehicles, Dongfeng Nissan 5424 vehicles, and Great Wall Motor has 1890 vehicles, and hybrid has gradually become a new hot spot.
2. Outlook of the national passenger car market in February 2022
Due to the early Spring Festival this year, the last week of January entered the Spring Festival dormancy period of the car market, which was 11 days less than the pre-holiday hot sales period in February 2021, but it also reduced the early dormancy period in the days before the Spring Festival, so the pressure on the car market to increase year-on-year was not much.
Due to the early suspension of production before the January holiday, the channel inventory after the boom in the Car Market in January is still at a low level, and as the car companies quickly resume normal production and sales after the holiday, dealers in February still have good demand for replenishment.
The economic situation in 2022 is becoming increasingly complex and severe, and the real estate market has peaked and declined significantly. In the short term, the regulation of the real estate industry will be in a tight balance trend, and the growth pressure of some related industries is relatively large and the market expectation is weak. Under the influence of the epidemic, the post-holiday production and life, the recovery of the service industry is more cautious, coupled with the protection and prevention and control of major events such as the Winter Olympics, the recovery of the automobile market in February is slower. However, with the return of middle-aged migrant workers, the structural recovery of the automobile market is facing better opportunities.
Some traditional car companies have been affected by chips and lowered their expectations in 2021, and the undelivered order resources have been transferred to the first quarter of the 2022 car market, so the efforts to ensure a good start and guarantee delivery will be implemented in the first quarter.
With the decline of new energy subsidies and the rise in raw material prices, the price fine-tuning of some models in the early stage brought about a temporary downturn in orders, the price acceptance of new energy vehicles recovered after the Spring Festival, and many new energy vehicles still have a backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales of new energy models in February will not be significantly affected by the decline.
After the Spring Festival in previous years, there has been a certain wave of car purchases before the start of school, and the traffic congestion in large cities is basically divided by the school opening holiday, because the risk of epidemic emissions still exists, and it is expected that the tide of car purchases at the beginning of this year should still be very good. Therefore, the growth rate of wholesale and retail sales in February should be worth looking forward to.
3. The slight increase in the price of new energy vehicles will not affect the increase in sales
Recently, with the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the sharp rise in the prices of basic resources such as lithium mines, new energy vehicle companies are facing certain cost pressures. However, the market price of new energy vehicles is not expected to rise significantly, and car companies should have the ability to resolve the pressure and continue to maintain the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in 2022. Judging from the market feedback, users also have a certain degree of consensus and expectations for the price changes after the decline of new energy.
In 2021, the national new energy vehicle market is hot. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 2.99 million units, an increase of 170% year-on-year. Due to the strong demand for terminal new energy, insufficient production capacity, and abundant undelivered car orders (including the large lock price to pass on the cost to the automobile manufacturer), the slight price increase will not seriously affect the overall market demand. In 2022, many car companies have set ambitious production and sales improvement targets, so we are confident that the sales volume of new energy passenger cars will reach about 5.5 million units in 2022, and continue to achieve high growth of about 70%.
National policies have great support for new energy vehicles. As the technical indicators of subsidies remain unchanged in 2022, the integration technology of batteries and vehicles is improving, and new energy vehicle products are expected to improve battery energy density and reduce 100 kilometers of electricity consumption and other technical indicators to receive better subsidy support. The stability of subsidy technical indicators is also conducive to the continuous improvement of the average technical level of the industry and alleviates the investment pressure under the policy follow-up strategy of some enterprises.
The scale benefits of new energy vehicles are obvious, and the single vehicle scale of head enterprises continues to increase and reduce costs. With the substantial growth of industrial scale, the cost of fixed asset depreciation and other costs of new energy vehicles can be better apportioned, and the cost of bicycle manufacturing is easier to play the scale advantage in the exponential growth stage. According to the financial reports released by Tesla and others, the gross profit of bicycles is at a high level of 30%, reflecting a strong ability to resist cost risks, which also injects new vitality into intelligent manufacturing and manufacturing technology innovation.
The cost pressure of the battery can be resolved in many ways. Car companies may improve cost pressure and improve communication efficiency by improving battery performance, diversifying supplier selection, and incorporating supplier development into internal transactions. At present, the 4680 battery, which is developing beyond expectations, has a lot of room for cost reduction. The battery industry has unprecedented investment in the world, and short-term profitability is far less important than the stable supply of bound car companies.
The pricing system of traditional fuel vehicles is affected by the high tax on consumer goods, and new energy vehicles do not have tax pressure such as consumption tax, but have more new energy points, so the potential profits of high-end new energy vehicles are lucrative. The battery capacity of BYD, GAC Aeon and other models is not much different from that of high-end cars, but the price difference is large, reflecting the high cost performance of A-class cars. However, due to the difference in consumer demand, high-end cars are extremely hot compared to A-class independent models, so the price pressure of high-end is not large. The competition of mainstream A0-class electric vehicles is fierce, and the cost pressure is huge, but the price is still stable, which also makes the higher growth of new energy vehicles have a good foundation.
4. Women's cars have become a strong driving force for the growth of the car market
According to the Ministry of Public Security, by 2021, the number of motor vehicles in the country will reach 395 million, of which 302 million will be cars; the number of motor vehicle drivers will reach 481 million, of which 444 million will be driven. In 2021, there will be 36.74 million newly registered motor vehicles and 27.5 million newly licensed drivers nationwide.
In 2021, the number of motor vehicle drivers reached 480 million, an increase of 25.5 million, which is relatively strong. From the historical data, the number of growth in 2021 is relatively high, but considering that the growth in 2020 is 20.5 million, the two should be said to be an average of 23 million per year, which is still at a relatively low level in history. Therefore, the increase in the number of drivers and the contribution to the increase in the car market are generally not large, which is not conducive to the growth of entry-level passenger car consumption. New energy users are younger, and the demand for cars after the 90s is different from the overall situation, such as the growth of demand for intelligent networking, the high demand for automotive technology, and the growth of high-end electric vehicles, so the new forces are very strong.
In terms of driver gender, male drivers reached 319 million, accounting for 66.32%, and female drivers 162 million, accounting for 33.68%. At present, the growth rate of female drivers is relatively fast, especially in the past two years, the growth rate of female drivers is relatively rapid, and now it has reached 160 million, from 0.7 billion in 2014 to 160 million in 2021, and it is in the rapid growth of about 13 million every year, indicating that overall, the proportion of household plural vehicle ownership is constantly growing, and the second car in the family has a large room for growth.
From the perspective of driver age, there were 69.66 million drivers aged 51 to 60 at the end of 2021, accounting for 14.48%, an increase of 23.03 million from 46.63 million in 2018, a cumulative increase of 50%. The average age of German car buyers is 52 years old, and the increase in car purchases in China will become a force that cannot be ignored in the car market in the future.
In 2021, new energy vehicles will perform strongly. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the motorcycle market has grown strongly, and personalized travel has grown rapidly. Although the growth of drivers is not fast, female drivers and middle-aged and elderly drivers are growing rapidly, which is the growth point of the automobile market, but young people have fewer concerns about the long-term development of the automobile market, so the growth of the automobile market mainly depends on consumption upgrades, and the popularity of private car consumption has encountered bottlenecks.
In the face of the aging and the growth trend of female users, relying on the rapid development of new energy vehicles, it is imperative to promote the implementation of the C5 driver's license of micro-electric vehicles, expand the number of micro-electric vehicle drivers, let micro-electric vehicles continue to transform in the direction of compliance as soon as possible, and let the car market have greater population support.
5. It is also important to promote the consumption of traditional fuel vehicles in 2022
Under the influence of the world's new crown epidemic in the past two years, the biggest highlight of the mainland economy is the high growth of foreign trade, in 2021, the mainland's annual import and export scale will reach a new level, breaking through the $6 trillion mark for the first time, and the national import and export trade will increase by 30% compared with 2020. In 2021, in US dollar terms, the mainland's foreign trade increased by US$1.4 trillion, and the trade surplus reached a new high of US$676.5 billion.
In this case, according to the structure of import and export and the analysis of the balance of international trade, it is necessary for us to increase the growth of domestic demand consumption, while the consumption growth of the targeted import car market to achieve a better balance of trade in major trading countries.
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the traditional fuel vehicle market for passenger cars continued to decline, from 8% in 2019 to 8% in 2020, and 6% year-on-year in 2021, of which December 2021 fell by 22% year-on-year. It can be seen that the traditional fuel vehicle market has continued to decline rapidly for several consecutive years, and the traditional fuel vehicles of independent brands have also appeared in the continuous downward pressure.
Under the current tax system, the production and use of fuel vehicles bring huge tax contributions. In 2021, the national tax revenue was 17,273.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year; of which the domestic consumption tax was 1,388.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year. Vehicle purchase tax was RMB352 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year. The current car purchase tax is mainly contributed by traditional fuel vehicles, and with the decline in the market size of traditional fuel vehicles, the tax on fuel vehicles is also decreasing.
Consumers buy electric vehicles mainly focus on the tax incentives of electric vehicles, which includes the purchase of electric vehicles are exempted from vehicle purchase tax and consumption tax, and the use stage is exempted from gasoline consumption tax, so a large part of the low-cost advantage of electric vehicles is the tax exemption advantage of tax policy. In the short term, fuel prices remain relatively high, and the characteristics of a liter of oil and a half-liter tax are obvious, if the price of gasoline is less than 3 yuan, the cost advantage of electric vehicles has dropped significantly.
At present, some consumers buy fuel vehicles is still a low-cost feature, and many of the independent brand A-class cars of traditional fuel vehicles are below 80,000 yuan, which is also a great price advantage. However, with the rise in the cost of use, many entry-level consumers cannot afford to buy fuel vehicles, while mainstream electric vehicles are more expensive, so car purchase consumption is inhibited. Encouraging household fuel vehicle consumption is still of positive significance at this stage.
6. Under the trend of low birthrate in the world, marriage should be encouraged - marriage and car purchase are exempt from car purchase tax
The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Strengthening the Work on Aging in the New Era" pointed out that it is necessary to study and formulate support policies such as housing, improve the policy of ladder electricity, water and gas prices, and encourage adult children to live nearby or together with their elderly parents, fulfill their maintenance obligations, and assume care responsibilities. This is a good way to deal with aging.
The low birthrate is a derivative result of social progress, increased pressure on life and social development. China is facing a severe low birthrate, which is a common characteristic problem in East Asia, and China has entered a similar situation with Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and so on.
At present, the improvement of the population structure is mainly to increase the number of births, and naturally it is also necessary to encourage marriage. At present, society is maturing, the phenomenon of not marrying is increasing, especially in large cities, young people have more freedom without marriage, so there are differences between social needs and personal choices, and it is necessary to encourage marriage, increase social stability, and bring more opportunities for social development.
At present, our marriage problem is more serious than the problem of fertility. Many high-end groups have a relatively negative and unconfident attitude towards marriage, which needs to be guided. We must accelerate the change of the young group's concept of marriage and childbearing, and encourage marriage.
Marriage and childbearing are the needs of our society for reproduction, and it is also the responsibility of many citizens, and we should carry forward traditional concepts and cultivate a stronger concept of marriage and childbearing.
We must not only face aging, but also in view of the trend of the world's low birthrate, increase the cultivation of young people's concept of marriage and childbearing, so that more young people dare to get married, willing to have children, and promote the structural enhancement of our young groups. Therefore, marriage should be encouraged and supported for the purchase of cars by first-time married people who are married.
The mainland's current policies to encourage marriage and childbearing also need to be gradually established, especially for local governments to take measures to support marriage through tax-free car purchases. It is suggested that while the civil affairs department issues certificates, a certain number of car purchase consumption coupons and tax exemption indicators are given to first-time marriage personnel, and the costs are borne by the central and local governments, so as to achieve the effect of guiding the society to encourage consumption.