【Introduction: In 2021, Tesla increased by 87.4% year-on-year, with annual sales of 936,000 vehicles, once again topped the global electric vehicle sales list. In addition to sales, Tesla's market value is far more than that of traditional car giants such as Volkswagen and Toyota, and the total market value hovers around trillions of dollars. In 2022, as the electric vehicle models of traditional car companies begin to be listed continuously, Tesla has become a symbol and synonym for the era of automobile reform, and whether its king status will be shaken will become a major attraction. On the other hand, whether traditional car companies will be like Nokia in the era of smart phones, subverted by new car companies such as Tesla and give up market share, it is worth our attention in 2022. 】
Written by| Zhang Chi, editor| Hezi
Traditional car companies, on the surface, in the previous period of time, are the lack of pure electric models and did not master the core technology including the three-electric system like Tesla. However, with the listing of BBA and Volkswagen and General Motors, it can be found that the pure electric models of these traditional luxury brand car companies have not been able to shake Tesla's hegemony in the global electric vehicle field. Fundamentally, it is the thinking mode or strategic judgment of traditional car companies that is lagging behind. Just like in the field of mobile phones, although Apple was the first to land touch screen technology on mobile phones, Nokia, the unchallengable overlord of the mobile phone field before that, was the first company to develop a touch screen mobile phone. This seems to be our fate, just like the first Kodak with digital technology was photographed by digital cameras on the beach of history.
"Get up early but catch up late" will always be staged
History is always strikingly similar. Electric vehicles, in fact, are not Tesla's first. GM introduced its first electric vehicle, the EV1, as early as 1996. What is even more exaggerated is that Tesla's earliest team had many research and development teams from EV1. If General Motors, which was rich at that time, could continue to invest in iterative development on the EV1, there would be no Tesla after that. Because in 1996, General Motors was in the ascendant and was a strong competitor to the top of the world's top 500 list. At that time, the funds needed to develop electric vehicle projects were only a dime a dozen for GM.
The skateboard chassis, which is now used by many companies such as Rivian, was first developed by General Motors. As early as 2002, GM released a concept car called AUTOnomy, and the chassis of this car is a typical skateboard chassis. At that time, the wire control technology, which was widely used in the aviation field, was deployed on the chassis of the car for the first time, and the line control movement and the wire control rotation were displayed in front of people's eyes for the first time in the whole vehicle. So we can imagine that if GM insisted on the research and development of skateboard chassis at that time, it is likely that it will now expand to a new financial path for itself by selling various types of skateboard chassis.
"Tesla model matrix is weak" is an opportunity
At present, Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y are selling well around the world, which also allows Tesla to slow down the pace of developing new models and expanding its own model matrix. Although there is a constraint on Tesla's own factory capacity, but more importantly, Elon Musk does not have the obsession to develop a new model, which is evident from the delay in the launch of the $25,000 Model 2. If this model can be listed, it will inevitably have a fundamental change in the pattern of the global electric vehicle market. But Elon Musk just didn't take advantage of Tesla's success to push the project forward. Perhaps in Musk's mind, Tesla can now use the more profitable Model 3 and Model Y to make more substantial profits.
Therefore, Tesla's stagnation in the model matrix is actually an opportunity for other OEMs. They can fully take advantage of Tesla's new car blank period to develop more competitive models, and achieve greater sales by continuing to complete the model matrix and giving consumers more personalized choices. Similar to Volkswagen MEB and GM Aoteneng, which are more scalable platforms, they can put a variety of electric vehicle models on the market in a short period of time, becoming Tesla's stronger competitors. In the North American market, GM and Ford have shouted that they will surpass Tesla in electric vehicle sales in the next few years, and its biggest confidence is derived from the thinness of Tesla's model matrix.
In addition, Tesla's Model X and Model S models have not been able to usher in a replacement, and the Roadster has not been listed, which gives competitors including porsche Taycan a huge opportunity to make this Porsche flagship electric vehicle surpass Tesla's flagship model in sales. Relevant people estimate that Porsche's only taycan model is enough to support the brand to complete the IPO in a separate column, and drive the Porsche brand to surpass its parent company Volkswagen Group in terms of market value, winning a very considerable research and development fund for Porsche itself and even the entire Volkswagen Group. This is enough to prove that Tesla is not invincible.
Beware of becoming "Nokia"
Tesla's success in electric vehicle sales, bicycle profits and the company's market value is encouraging other car brands to transform and increase investment in electric vehicles. This means that Tesla's past first-mover advantage can only be constantly offset. At present, the world is in the process of replacing fuel vehicles with an electric vehicle, which means that even if Tesla is stuck, it will still be pushed forward by the electric vehicle market. But if electric vehicles and fuel vehicles reach a relatively stable ratio, Tesla may be difficult to sit on the Diaoyutai as it is now. At a time when major car companies are launching electric vehicles, the arrival of this point in time may not be far away. After all, GM and Ford now give a timeline for surpassing Tesla in electric vehicle sales.
As for traditional car companies, although they have lost their first-mover advantage in the electric vehicle market, they sit back and watch Tesla grow bigger and cannot do anything. However, it can still use its huge size and existing system capabilities to catch up in the three-electric system, automatic driving and intelligent cockpit. However, now that the threshold for investment in these core technologies is getting higher and higher, how to balance the update of existing models and the investment of forward-looking technologies will become a new topic. However, for traditional car companies, if they cannot start from now on, they will firmly continue to invest in these core technologies, and use the attitude of the pointer to catch up with Tesla, perhaps in 10 or even 5 years, it will be pulled apart by the entire leading group, and eventually become Nokia of the automotive industry concept, and gradually forgotten by consumers. As for Tesla, if it can't continue to innovate and inject more new vitality into the brand, Tesla itself will become Nokia.
Comments
The wheels of history roll forward. As mentioned above, the current global automotive market is entering an era of profound change. Under the impact of new car companies such as Tesla, traditional car companies can only keep up with the pace of the times and ensure that they are not left behind by continuous investment in core technologies. This process of transformation is bound to be painful, but as long as you survive, you can keep the clouds open and see the moon. For those traditional car companies that only care about the immediate interests and ignore the long-term investment, it will inevitably become Nokia in the era of intelligent electric vehicles, which will be eliminated by the market.
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