10 years ago, there were still many manual transmission models in the A-class car field, and now even the Haval Chitu in the 100,000 district and the Lynk & Co 03 in the 150,000 district have also achieved full automatic transmission, and the manual transmission model either exists in some low-cost car fields or exists in sports cars like subaru BRZ, and manual transmission has been marginalized is an established fact.
So, the manual transmission model can disappear, can the fuel car also disappear in the future?
The answer is yes, but it will take a long time, even 50 years. The shortage of energy has forced the global automobile industry to go to "non-renewable", oil is a non-renewable resource for a long time, and relying on oil and gas will inevitably lead to higher car costs in the future. Therefore, fundamentally speaking, the status of fuel vehicles has been shaken, although electric vehicles may not be the ultimate appearance of automobile development, but for now, the next development of fuel vehicles is electric.
At present, many of the electricity still comes from thermal power, and it still uses natural resources or even non-renewable resources to provide it. Therefore, unless the power supply can achieve the "primary of thermal power generation", electric vehicles may also be replaced by new energy vehicles.
So will there be new energy sources instead of electricity? Hydrogen energy? In fact, it is also a way that is difficult to popularize and save costs. In the future, once we encounter an energy crisis, we may not even rule out returning to the starting point, and only human resources are the root of solving everything.
At present, there is no car company in this direction of development, the use of human power to drive the car, through a variety of complex mechanical accessories, so that the human force is infinitely amplified, so that the kinetic energy of the driving car is close to the infinite cycle, perhaps such a "whimsical" way is to solve the fundamental driving force of the car, but this seems to be difficult to achieve.
Speaking of the problem of fuel vehicles being replaced, the reason why the current electric vehicles have been vigorously developed is, to a large extent, not determined by market initiative, which also has passive factors. In any case, as more and more electric vehicles have a longer mileage, even some people in second- and third-tier cities with unlimited license plates and unlimited numbers will come to buy new electric vehicles.
In addition to the problem of mileage, electric vehicles have natural advantages in power output, intelligence and appearance. And it is the more cool appearance, the more Internet-based car-making concept, that attracts those who like to try the early adopters to buy electric vehicles. Moreover, many people do not have an electric car at home, and there may be one or two fuel vehicles. Electric vehicles can fully meet the needs of many people traveling in the city, and save costs, after all, electric vehicles do not need to change oil, do not need so strict maintenance
However, it should be known that the current fuel vehicles have almost no hard reasons to be eliminated by the market in addition to environmental and energy factors. Therefore, the elimination of fuel vehicles in the short term is not realistic at all, and it is not in line with the normal development model, and it is inevitable that the elimination of fuel vehicles from the market will inevitably cause many problems. For example, although some electric vehicles can support power exchange, but now because there are a large number of fuel vehicles after all, it is a minority, so the queue time for power exchange is not long, just imagine this scale expanded by 10 times or even 100 times, is it appropriate to change the power in the end? And for the charging pile, is the scale really enough?
We assume that all fuel vehicles are eliminated, only electric vehicles are left, then there are many problems, such as the road space occupied by queuing for charging, the rapid increase in demand for electricity, the pollution of batteries, the safety of the Internet of Vehicles, the privacy of car owners and so on.