Under the agitation of strong policy support and Tesla's "big catfish", the domestic new energy vehicle market has blossomed.
Like the "big brother" Tesla, a group of domestic "new car-making forces" represented by Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal have also developed rapidly in recent years, and sales have soared.
In the early stage of development, the positioning, technical direction and price range of each "new car-making force" have obvious differences. After more than a year of rapid development, various car companies have a certain degree of "convergence" in pricing, technology and price.
Therefore, the Xia Jun team of Guosheng Securities believes that looking forward to 2022, the new forces of car manufacturing will carry out rapid iteration and head-on competition in electrification technology, intelligent driving functions, and model pricing.
1. Electric: technological innovation, cost reduction and endurance
In recent years, continuous innovation in the field of technology has boosted the mileage of electric vehicles and the continuous decline in cost.
The Xia Jun team of Guosheng Securities believes that in 2022, "Wei Xiaoli" will also achieve more iterations in the following directions:
Integrated die-casting technology: Musk announced on Tesla Battery Day 2020 that ModelY uses integrated die-casting technology, which reduces the weight of the assembly of the car by 30% and reduces manufacturing costs by 40%. We see that Xiaopeng Wuhan factory, Weilai and so on have also carried out die-casting layout. The new technology is expected to continue to improve the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle in the long run.
Charging technology: 800V high-voltage charging can achieve fast charging, greatly reducing the time required for energy replenishment.
Battery technology: Tesla and other 4680 cylindrical batteries, large capacity, high endurance, fast charging. The use of CTP and CTC technology can effectively improve energy density, reduce the number of parts and vehicle weight, and reduce costs while improving cruising range.
2. Smart: Embark on L3 level intelligent driving and launch a hardware and software arms race
In 2022, the higher-level L3 intelligent driving function will be mass-produced and delivered by car companies. The Xia Jun team of Guosheng Securities believes that this high order is reflected in both scene extension and software and hardware configuration.
(1) Implement the scene
The Xia Jun team of Guosheng Securities believes that in addition to 1) parking and 2) high-speed scenarios, the pilot auxiliary driving functions of Xiaopeng and Weilai are expected to be expanded to 3) urban scenarios in 2022.
At present, the XPEROT3.5 system of Xiaopeng P5 is equipped with two lidars, which have higher accuracy in obstacle recognition and are less affected by lighting, which plays a key role in expanding the NGP function to urban scenes. Xiaopeng has announced the implementation of urban NGP functions in H1 in 2022. In 2022, NIO is expected to implement urban NOP functions on NAD systems equipped with models such as ET7 and ET5.
(2) Hardware configuration
In 2022, the new power car companies will be new in the hardware configuration of the intelligent driving system. As far as Xiaopeng and Weilai are concerned, the team summarized:
The XPILOT4.0 that Xiaopeng G9 will be equipped with has been fully upgraded in terms of hardware. In terms of computing power, it will be equipped with two Nvidia OrinX autonomous driving chips, and the perception aspect will be equipped with 8 million pixel forward-looking binocular cameras, as well as 2.9 million pixel side-view cameras, and adopt a highly integrated domain controller, and plan to achieve all-scenario intelligent assisted driving in the first half of 2023.
The self-developed NAD system equipped with NIO in ET7 will also be equipped with ultra-long-range high-precision lidar for high-level driver assistance functions, and four NVIDIA Orin chips in terms of computing power, with a computing power of 1016TOPS
3. Pricing: Step into the same price band
Previously, Xiaopeng models were mostly in the price range of 150,000-250,000, and Weilai models were mostly in the price range of 350,000-550,000, and the positioning was different.
The Xia Jun team of Guosheng Securities believes that with the continuous extension of the price bands, the leaders of the new forces in 2022 will also meet in the same price band.
Xiaopeng will deliver the G9 in 2022Q3, and the market expects its price to be between the P7 and P7 Pengyi version, that is, around 300,000-400,000. NIO will deliver ET5 in 2022Q3, priced at subsidies of the first 328,000 (75kwh version) and 386,000 100kwh version).
In this regard, the Xia Jun team of Guosheng Securities concluded:
With Xiaopeng's upward exploration and Weilai's downward exploration, the two will meet in the price band of 300,000-400,000. As the target population expands, the competition between the new forces in the same price band is becoming more and more positive.
The main content of this article is source: Guosheng Securities Research Report "Xiaopeng Automobile: The Road Ahead is Vast, Stepping On the Intelligent Engine", Author: Xia Jun, Xia Xia