Can Ford's market capitalization go further in 2022?
Text/Mu Kun
Probably no one expected that Ford's stock price would soar nearly 140% in 2021, from $8.766 to $20.770. This increase will include Tesla, General Motors, Rivian and other U.S. domestic electric vehicle companies behind, becoming the best performing car stock in the U.S. securities market in 2021. Why has Ford's stock price been able to sit on such a big increase? Can Ford maintain this momentum in 2022? It's all worth exploring.
Construct a relatively complete matrix of electric vehicle models
For Ford, one of the main reasons for the increase in market capitalization is that its electric vehicle strategy has been recognized by the market and investors. At present, Ford has built an electric vehicle matrix including the mustang Mach-E, a pure electric pickup truck F150 Lightning, and the all-electric version of the Trans Shun e-Transit.
Among them, the Mustang is Ford's high-performance model sub-brand, with a deep historical heritage and many fans; the F series pickup truck is the world's best-selling model, and its position within Ford even surpasses that of the luxury brand Lincoln; and the Transit Transit model is also a world-renowned light commercial vehicle.
Ford took out its three most advantageous sub-brands/models and first tried pure electrification, in order to be able to ensure that its electric vehicle strategy can be hit in one hit. At present, the feedback from these models is good, especially as the F150 Lightning, a pickup truck favored by American consumers, begins to be delivered, and Ford's electric vehicle sales are expected to rise to a higher level.
In addition, Ford has previously officially announced its cooperation with Volkswagen. The use of volkswagen MEB platform to launch pure electric models in the European market is also an important part of the relevant strategic cooperation. For Ford, through cooperation with Volkswagen on the MEB platform, it is a two-pronged thing to be able to meet the increasingly stringent regulations of the European Union while also gaining experience and time for its own development of pure electric platforms.
Weak performance from competitors contributed to Ford's shares moving higher
As the former hegemon of the US market, GM's performance in the field of electric vehicles in 2021 is really unsatisfactory. As GM's main electric vehicle currently sold in the North American market, the Bolt EV suffered its biggest setback since its launch: frequent spontaneous combustion not only caused GM to initiate a recall, but also forced GM to suspend sales of bolt EV in the U.S. market.
Although LG New Energy has compensated for most of the cost of GM's recall, GM's lost sales and reputation in the field of electric vehicles have hurt GM more, which is reflected in the fact that it is difficult to make up for how much money is in the company's market value. Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda, which are also calling for rain in the US market, have only recently clarified the strategy of comprehensive transformation to pure electric vehicles, so it is difficult to have competitive models on the market in a short period of time to PK with Ford's related models.
As for other new forces, in addition to Tesla still strong, others such as Lucid Air and Rivian have not shown superior strength. In particular, Rivian, which is supported by Amazon and has also been involved in Ford' shares, is gradually moving towards a reasonable range after a brief period of glory after the success of the IPO. Rivian and Ford are more similar, focusing on pickup trucks and SUVs that U.S. consumers prefer more. But from the current point of view, in addition to the skateboard chassis, Rivian does not have much to surprise us, whether it is the three-electric system or the underlying core technology such as automatic driving, Rivian lags behind Tesla, which is also a new force.
In 2022, Ford's challenge is not small
In 2022, it will be difficult for Ford to maintain the momentum of its rapid stock price rise. On the one hand, the Fed will tighten the faucet, and the past easing policy will be difficult to reproduce in the short term; on the other hand, traditional car companies including General Motors and Toyota, as well as other new forces outside Tesla, will accelerate the release of more electric vehicles to the market. To outperform and outpace the competition, Ford needs to solve the following problems:
Continue to increase the sales of Mustang Mach-E. Although the sales of The Mustang Mach-E in the United States continue to rise, it is still far behind the Tesla Model Y. Starting in 2022, GM will begin to launch models based on the Aotonon platform, which can usher in a complete change in performance compared to the Bolt EV. Therefore, Ford must do a good job in the marketing of the Mustang Mach-E, so that consumers in the United States and even around the world really realize that this is a pure electric SUV that can directly compete with the Model Y. As for the F-150 Lightning is the most important, Ford will invest the most resources in this pickup truck model, using tesla Cyberruck is difficult to go public in the short term, and Rivian still has many problems to solve the empty window period, expanding its market share in the pure electric pickup truck market. Compared with the e-Transit, the success of these two models will directly determine whether Ford's stock price will reach a new high in 2022 or be beaten back to its original shape.
Ford also needs to accelerate its deployment on self-driving capabilities. Like GM has a Cruise, Ford has its own Argo AI. Based on the Argo AI platform, Ford needs to evaluate the progress of its own driver assistance/autonomous driving projects, and continue to push driver assistance upgrade packages to the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, so that the various functions of autopilot, including pilot functions, can also be accelerated on Ford models.
Stock price/market capitalization is very important for a car company, especially for A.S. car companies with a highly developed securities industry. Ford's stock price increase in 2021 outperformed other car companies listed in the United States, which is actually the market's recognition of the formulation and implementation of its past electric vehicle strategy.
But if we want to maintain such rapid growth in 2022, we still need Ford to produce more excellent results. Whether it is an electric vehicle with stronger strength in forward-looking functions including three-electric system, intelligent cockpit and automatic driving, or the introduction of a new business model to bring consumers a better experience across the industry chain, Ford needs continuous innovation. Only by continuing to innovate can Ford once again outperform the market in 2022. This applies to Ford, as well as to other car companies.