Text/"Tsinghua Financial Review" Ding Kaiyan
The National Bureau of Statistics released economic macro data for April on May 17. Industrial production, import and export, investment and other indicators all accelerated compared with March, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year, indicating that the economy continued to improve on the whole, and social expectations continued to improve.
Driven by external demand, industrial production has accelerated
Benefiting from the continuous coordinated efforts of macro policies and the pull of exports, the growth rate of the three major industrial categories has rebounded, and the growth rate of more than eighty percent of industries and nearly sixty percent of products has rebounded.
According to the data, the growth of industrial production accelerated in April, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than that in March.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In April, the added value of the mining industry increased by 2.0 percent year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.5 percent, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 5.8 percent. In April, the added value of state-controlled enterprises increased by 5.4% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.9 percent, and foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 6.2 percent; The private sector grew by 6.3 per cent.
In terms of industries, in April, 36 of the 41 major industries maintained a year-on-year increase in added value. Among them, the coal mining and washing industry increased by 1.5 percent, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 0.7 percent, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 1.2 percent, the wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry increased by 3.8 percent, the textile industry increased by 6.6 percent, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 12.3 percent, the non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 1.5 percent, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.0 percent, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 11.4 percent, and the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 3.7 percent. The manufacturing of special equipment increased by 2.0 percent, the automobile manufacturing industry by 16.3 percent, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry by 13.2 percent, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 5.8 percent, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry by 15.6 percent, and the electricity and heat production and supply industry by 5.7 percent.
"The value of industrial export deliveries continues to rise, driving the recovery of industries with a high proportion of exports such as electronics and textiles, which is an important reason for the acceleration of industrial production." Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said. According to the data, in April, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year, 5.9 percentage points faster than that of three months. Among specific products, in April, the output of EMUs increased by 212.5% year-on-year, the output of new energy vehicles increased by 39.2% year-on-year, and the output of 5G smartphones increased by 18.7% year-on-year. "In the next stage, the large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policy in the industrial field will release a larger market space, and the vigorous development of information technology, digital technology, intelligent technology and green technology will further help new kinetic energy accelerate the cultivation and growth and enhance the momentum of industrial development." Liu Aihua said.
Domestic demand is expected to continue to improve: online consumption plays a prominent driving role, and investment growth in the northeast region is obvious
On the demand side, consumption increased by 2.3% year-on-year in April, and investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, both of which declined.
From the perspective of consumption, in April, the retail sales of goods were 3,178.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; catering revenue was 391.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4 percent. From January to April, retail sales of goods 138666 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; catering revenue was 1,736 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3 percent. Yuan Yan, chief statistician of the Department of Trade and Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in April, market sales maintained growth, online consumption played a prominent driving role, and basic life and some upgraded goods sold well; Retail sales of services maintained rapid growth, while consumption of mobility and digital services performed well.
In terms of investment, the investment in the primary industry was 263.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; investment in the secondary industry was 4,763.4 billion yuan, up by 13.0 percent; investment in the tertiary industry was 9,313.1 billion yuan, up by 0.3 percent. By region, investment in the eastern region increased by 4.8 percent year-on-year, investment in the central region increased by 4.0 percent, investment in the western region increased by 0.6 percent, and investment in the northeast region increased by 6.4 percent.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Liu Aihua said that the main reason for the decline in investment is that the rain and flood disasters in some areas in the south have affected the construction progress of the project. The decline in consumption is mainly due to the fact that there were two days of the "May Day" holiday in April last year, and the holiday staggered month brought a high base. From the perspective of month-on-month growth, consumption increased by 0.03% month-on-month in April, maintaining a stable trend.
Liu Aihua said that domestic demand is expected to continue to improve. From the perspective of investment, since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have accelerated the start of project construction, increased investment in innovation and development, and generally maintained stable growth in investment. In terms of consumption, with the improvement of the employment situation, the implementation of policies to promote consumption, and the continuous innovation and expansion of consumption scenarios, the consumer market will continue to expand and improve its quality.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said that on the one hand, from the perspective of the future trend of consumption, the favorable conditions to support consumption are still increasing, such as the economy continues to pick up, residents' income is increasing, employment is improving, consumer confidence is rising, and the consumer market will continue to improve. New investment and new infrastructure continue to show a good momentum of development. By the end of February, 132,000 new 5G base stations had been added across the country, and the total number now exceeds 3.5 million. On the other hand, from the perspective of investment, new investment and new infrastructure continue to show a good momentum of development. At the same time, while doing a good job in the technological transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, we should accelerate the cultivation of emerging industries and future industries, and expand and strengthen new quality productive forces.
The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas has fallen
In April's macro data, the employment situation was generally stable, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate declined.
According to the data, from January to April, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas across the country was 5.2 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. In April, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.0 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from March and the same month last year.
"The continued recovery of the economy and the effectiveness of the employment stabilization policy have continued to decline. The unemployment rate of key groups such as migrant workers has dropped significantly. Liu Aihua said.
In terms of prices, the CPI in April turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded. "In the next phase, although food prices will remain at seasonal lows due to warmer weather and increased supply, industrial consumer goods and service prices are expected to recover from low levels, driven by the recovery in demand. Overall, we believe CPI is expected to recover modestly from low levels. Liu Aihua said.
The real estate market continues to adjust
From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial buildings was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 23.8%. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 2,806.7 billion yuan, down by 28.3 percent, of which the sales of residential buildings fell by 31.1 percent.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
From the price point of view, in April, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.7%, 1.3% and 1.0% respectively, and Shanghai rose by 0.3%. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, with the decline rate both increasing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In April, the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 1.1% month-on-month, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 1.6%, 0.8%, 1.4% and 0.7% respectively. Second-hand residential sales prices in second- and third-tier cities both fell by 0.9% month-on-month, and the decline rate increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held on April 30 pointed out that the policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing should be studied as a whole. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that on the whole, the data in the first four months of this year fully shows that the current real estate market is still in a relatively obvious adjustment process. On the one hand, the market adjustment shows that the policy needs to be further optimized, especially based on the "overall study and digestion of the stock of real estate and the optimization of the policy measures for incremental housing", which also shows that the policy needs to be broken. On the other hand, the market has the basis for further development, including Hangzhou and other places to buy a house market is active, which also shows that the policy effect is positive, which has a positive effect on the adjustment of expectations and the improvement of indicators.
Editor-in-charge丨Ding Kaiyan, Lan Yinfan
Preliminary trial丨Xu Lanying
Final Review丨Zhang Wei
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