In less than a year from the peak to the bottom, the stock bubble of electric vehicles burst?
Text/Song Shuanghui
Last fall, electric vehicle stocks were still thriving in the U.S. stock market, and even new players such as Rivian and Lucid, who had not yet delivered a car, were on the peak of their soaring stock prices.
Traditional car companies also saw this opportunity and prepared to go to the capital market to share a piece of the pie, volvo Cars announced the IPO plan of its electric vehicle brand Polar Star.
Investors stare at these electric vehicle companies, but also like wolves staring at sheep, everyone's goal is very simple, maybe this time bet on the right treasure, they will invest in the next Tesla.
However, in just over half a year, the EV capital market has changed.
The polar star that will land on the NASDAQ next month is cold, and last year's beautiful Rivian was sold off by major shareholders, and everyone's life is not very good.
Stock price "roller coaster"
In the second half of 2021, electric vehicle listed companies began to be sought after by the capital market.
Lucid's Valuation for the July IPO reached $42 billion, followed by a surge in The IPO's Rivian valuation soared to $66.5 billion, while neither Tesla challenger had delivered a new car.
But in 2022, the global auto market continues to struggle with the supply chain crisis, and the days of electric vehicle companies are becoming more and more difficult to survive, at the same time, the bubble begins to burst.
The stock price of U.S. electric vehicle stocks has changed since October last year
Rivian's share price has plummeted more than 80 percent per share from its high of $172 last November, and Lucid's share price has fallen nearly two-thirds from its peak of $55 per share.
Not only the new players, but also those who have been in the capital market for several years have not been spared, including the big brother Tesla, whose stock price has also fallen by nearly 30% in the past year.
In the words of Morningstar stock analyst David Whiston, "Everyone wants to invest in the next Tesla, but Musk has only one." The era of easy money is over, and now is definitely a high-risk phase for investing in electric vehicle startups compared to the past few years. ”
Shareholders can't sit still. Sources revealed that after the expiration of the lock-up period for Rivian's IPO shares, Ford Motor will sell 8 million shares of Rivian shares, and JPMorgan Chase also plans to sell 13 million to 15 million shares.
Don't blame Ford for being ruthless, Rivian shares have plummeted more than 50 percent in the first three months of this year, and Ford lost $5.4 billion.
Rivian's situation is unlikely to change much in the second half of the year, and they promised investors at the roadshow last year that they could build 50,000 cars this year, and in March they changed their words to say that only 25,000 vehicles could be built.
As for Lucid, another "Tesla killer", only 360 new cars were delivered in the first quarter, and 30,000 orders were still in hand.
New and old players, who has the advantage?
Polestar, who originally wanted to take advantage of the boom in the electric vehicle market to get more financial support through IPO, seems to be in a somewhat awkward situation at present. When electric vehicle companies around the world are battling supply chain shortages and rising costs, will investors still be optimistic about the future performance of Polestar?
Thomas Ingenlath, CEO of Polestar, remains confident, saying that Polaris' business is stable, with thousands of units delivered every month, and he firmly believes that investors will make decisions based on Polestar's growing business, rather than market speculation.
George Gianarikas, a senior research analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., believes that the industry's perception of electric vehicle start-ups has changed, and these new companies cannot stand alone in the face of the global supply chain crisis, and even suffer a greater impact, because they do not have the capital of traditional car companies.
Therefore, at present, the investment of traditional giants such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the field of electric vehicles has attracted the attention of investors.
However, after all, Polar Star is different from The new cars of Rivian and Lucid, it is a new brand born from traditional car companies, supported by the supply chain and manufacturing capacity of the parent company Geely Holdings, which sold 29,000 vehicles globally last year, and signed an order for 65,000 units with car rental giant Hertz in April this year.
Sam Abuelsamid, chief analyst of Guidehouse Insights, believes that Polar Star can better cope with the current industry crisis than brands such as Rivian, although it is not the best time for the capital market, but Pole Star still has opportunities.
After all, investors are still looking for the next Tesla.