IAUTO
Speed Depth Attitude
Introduction |
2022/01/26
In 2021, the lack of core is a fig leaf; in 2022, the lack of core is a touchstone.
Reporter丨Wei Jinqiao
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
Last year, there were a lot of strips missing cores.
It is said that when the summer was at its hottest, Chen Yudong, president of Bosch China, did not dare to go home after work for a while, and after the miraculous good deeds found out his home address, they directly went to the door to block people to "core" - the credibility of this paragraph is 90%.
It is said that the news of BYD chips is sufficient, Xu Liuping, Zhu Yanfeng, Wei Jianjun, these friendly business leaders lined up to go to Shenzhen to ask Wang Chuanfu to eat. Not to mention, there is really no way to let them go home empty-handed, how many souvenirs are different, at most who I don't know, but the least I heard is Wang Zong's Anhui compatriot Yin Tongyue, the souvenir gift is less than 1,000 chips - is Chery not too short of cores? Or are they not related!? - 80% credibility of this article!
Chen Bin, general manager of DPCA, went to Shanghai to buy back 1,000 chips that Versailles was in short supply for in order to smoothly put into production citroën Versailles.
Natural disasters and accidents are frequent, from Renesas to Infineon, one after another. The lack of core triggered a series of events, hot brands in short supply, the price quickly recovered; in 2020, the bosses who are still anxious about the high inventory can't help but take the opportunity to empty the inventory in the factory open space and the dealer inventory before; the dealer is even more happy, the transaction price has risen all the way from March, and in October, the most serious lack of cores, hit a new high in the past five years.
What？ Lack of core bad things become good things!? You taste, you savor!
The new crown and the lack of core are worse, optimism and pessimism fly together, and time stumbles straight to 2022.
Will the new energy share break through 20%? Will the lack of cores get better in the summer of 2022? Will the target of 50% of the market share of Chinese brands be achieved quickly this year? Although the shadows are pervasive, in the anxiety and anticipation, you can smell the fragrance of hope.
Guessed an extra 20,000 vehicles
At the beginning of last year, "Automobile Commune" boldly and optimistically predicted that new energy sales will exceed 2.5 million vehicles in 2021, and the highest is expected to reach 3 million vehicles! Reality proves, superficial! In each month of 2021, the market share of new energy was 1.3% higher than the previous month's average, setting a new annual sales record of 3.5 million units.
I didn't guess the beginning, but I was right at the end. In last year's "2021 ∣ Patterns and Trends (Part 1): Only Love, Can Reach the Long Years": "The total number of passenger cars has increased from 19.76 million last year to about 21.5 million this year, and the overall market has maintained an increase of about 6 to 7%, and the total number is expected to exceed 27 million." ”
Despite being plagued by chips, China's auto market has stopped falling and rebounded, and passenger cars have become the biggest driver of the recovery of the auto market, with annual production and sales of 21.408 million units and 21.482 million units, up 7.1% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively, and sales were only 20,000 units short of the 21.5 million units predicted by The Automobile Commune in January last year.
However, after continuous overdrafts of commercial vehicles, production and sales plummeted by 6.6% to 4.793 million units in the second half of last year, and vehicle sales for the whole year rose only slightly by 3.8% to 26.275 million units.
The growth myth of China's auto market ended in the winter of 2017, from the summer of 2018 to the downward trend, in 2018, 2019, 2020, car sales fell by 2.8%, 8.2% and 1.9% respectively, for three years.
The last time Passenger Cars were sold in China was 21.21 million units, in 2015. There were many stories in that year, the year of the outbreak of its own brands Chang'an, Geely and great wall, and the year of the sharp differentiation of the joint venture.
That year, Toyota and Honda had just slowly risen from the four-year "Diaoyu Island storm", and two cars became their saviors from the trough, one of which was called Highlander; Dongfeng Nissan's sales that year finally exceeded 1 million, and it was exactly four years since 2012 when it first proposed a "sprint of 1 million vehicles".
In those years, riding on the gap between the collective decline of Japanese cars, Beijing Hyundai and Changan Ford were definitely popular fried chickens, and together with the north and south Volkswagen, the scenery was unique. That year, the impact of the "emission gate" gradually faded, Volkswagen exceeded 4 million units in China, based on China's good sales contribution, and finally the Volkswagen Group surpassed Toyota in 2016 with a total score of 10.31 million units, and for the first time sat at the top of the world automobile sales list.
Five years later, someone is still on this fierce stage, but the light is no longer shining on the body. Numbers can be reincarnated, once so familiar faces, things are not people.
Independent brands fell to the bottom in 2020, the market from the Ashkenazi monopoly, The Japanese, Korean, American hundreds of competing, and gradually evolved into the Ashkenazi, Japanese and Japanese both males, Korean, American, and French systems collapsed.
The German and Japanese systems are still able to hold their positions, the Korean and French systems are struggling, and the independent brands have absolutely counterattacked, forming the most unique landscape of the auto market in 2021. Tesla took all the traffic of the American brand, Ford barely rebounded, and GM was full of injuries.
In 2021, there are two major events that will change the pattern of the future car market: first, The total sales of Chinese brand passenger cars are 9.543 million units, accounting for the highest proportion of passenger car sales since 2011; secondly, in 2021, the wholesale sales of German brands are almost the same as those of Japan, while the completed retail sales of 4.49 million units, down 8.9% year-on-year, the German share is lower than the Japanese 22.6% with a score of 22.3%, and japanese cars have surpassed for the first time in 10 years. Become the only rival in front of Chinese brands.
As early as February 2020, in the "2020 ∣ Pattern and Trend (Middle): From protestantism to Neo-Confucianism", we predicted: "In the next 10 years, we will force the public to fight Toyota, which is the mission of the growth of Chinese brands, and the fate of China's automobile globalization." ”
The electrification accelerator that will be launched in 2021 does not seem to need to wait until 2030, and this great mission will be completed in 2025 at the latest.
"Missing core" is a fig leaf
Dr. Chen Yudong, President of Bosch China, who celebrated his 60th birthday last September, must not have imagined that his current life year would be so special. He is not only the person who is most cared for by others in 2021, but also the person who is chased most fiercely by "others" in 2021. It is said that the endless number of phone calls to "core" made him change six mobile phones within a year.
On January 14, at Bosch China's annual year-end New Year TVC, Male No. 1 Dr. Chen Yudong was in the office to see a doctor, eating (Liuwei) "reassuring pills" while using his six mobile phones to answer the "death-killing core call" that was flocking from all directions. Vice President Xu Daquan plays the second male, on the roof of the headquarters building, Cosplay the classic scene in "Infernal Affairs".
The contradiction between the rapid growth of electrified models and the shortage of global automotive chip manufacturing capacity will reach its peak in the summer of 2021. Bosch, who is in a whirlpool, interprets the serious and nervous lack of core into a lively and ridiculous TVC, which is a pleasure in suffering and a lament for the impermanence of the heavenly path.
Yesterday, when I entered the three keywords of "new crown impact car" into Baidu, I found about 20,600,000 related terms; and then entered the three keywords of "missing core impact car" and found about 53,600,000 related results.
What the!? The impact of the lack of cores in 2021 on the automotive industry is nearly three times that of the new crown in 2020! However, the negative impact of the new crown on the car market is far more than the lack of core.
Studies have shown that the lack of chips eventually lost 1.5 million production capacity, but the automotive industry as a whole enjoyed a rare good time for more than a year, the dealer inventory coefficient was generally lower than 1.0, the price of the car transaction was firm, and one of the main jobs of sales was to go to the factory to get a car, and everyone complained about Bosch. The production line is no longer working in three shifts, from suppliers to OEMs, as well as dealers who steal music, the years are quiet, and the muffled wealth is made.
In 2021, the entire industrial chain has a win-win situation that has been rare for many years, and there is reason to suspect: the lack of core is a "Zhou Yu playing yellow cover" tacit understanding of the capital market, the supply side, the main engine factory and the dealer - an adventure game that is clearly painful and painful, but in fact, everyone is happy?!
Indeed, under the epidemic in 2020, chip manufacturers have misestimated the demand of the automotive market, and the surge in the use of higher-process chips such as mobile phones and computers has squeezed out the raw materials of automotive-grade chips, resulting in a longer recovery of automotive chip production capacity. In the first half of last year, when the core shortage crisis, mainly due to the epidemic amplified the gap between the supply and demand of the core, superimposed on the unexpected shutdown caused by fire and strike, making the supply and demand relationship unbalanced in stages.
However, around October 2020, the shipments of the three process semiconductors in the consumer category have returned to the level before the epidemic (March), and natural and man-made disasters have followed, and the US state of Texas was suddenly hit by a cold snap in February, and the boss of on-board semiconductors, Infineon of Germany, and the second NXP semiconductor factory suspended production. In March, a large-scale fire broke out at Renesas Electronics' Naka plant in Malaysia, which ranked in the top three in terms of shipments.
Sigh, it's a tsunami and a cold current, and at the end of it, there's a fire that burns down. What has not happened in a hundred years has happened in two months, who said that the fire was not deliberately put by someone with a heart? Just after the Great Fire in Malaysia, the lack of core public opinion turned around and went to conspiracy theories.
Except for Honda, who was the most deeply injured, most manufacturers are stealing pleasure. When using the lack of core as an excuse for inaction, either someone deliberately shorted it or chose to lie flat.
In Bosch's year-end summary drama TVC, in order to comfort Chen Yudong, the divine doctor pinched his finger and said, "(Missing core) will be solved in the third quarter!" This is a natural sound for Honda, which has no rice under the pot, but it may be a "thunderbolt on a sunny day" for many people.
"Our life is much better without core, but it is not short of core that is the bayonet red!" The first business trip in the New Year, but whenever I met people, I always couldn't help but ask about the topic of missing cores, and I was anxious, and some people said it half jokingly and half seriously.
The chip is sufficient, there is no longer any reason to take the new crown and lack of core as an excuse to excuse, the board of directors, the executive committee, the board of supervisors and the nightclub will force you to roll up your sleeves and work hard; the chip is sufficient, all production lines will be full of horsepower and survive at full capacity; the chip is sufficient, the price war will start from the first working day of the autumn, the market will return to blood, and all bayonets will be red.
Those lies that were told in the days of lack of core last year will definitely be the first to show a look of embarrassment in this winter.
Skoda did not have Versailles
"Aide-toi, le ciel t'aidera." In France, this old proverb has a nearly perfect interpretation in China, "If you know where you want to go, the whole world will make way for you." ”
Chen Bin must not regret the expensive 1,000 chips, which not only made Versailles the best-selling model of DPCA in just three months, but also allowed DPCA to grasp a straw of life.
In September 2021, the Versailles C5 X was officially launched, with four months of sales of 513, 1,530, 5,037 and 5,462 units, respectively. It is said that at the year-end summary of 2021, Mao Chuangxin, general manager of Dongfeng Citroën, choked up and almost burst into tears when talking about the loss of nearly 10,000 Versailles orders due to the inability to deliver.
Versailles's earth-shattering reversal gives hope to the overwhelmed modern, wandering Kia, the stumbling Chevrolet and the crumbling Skoda.
"If TuCson can no longer succeed, then the future of Beijing Hyundai..." Suzhou, on the shores of Taihu Lake, before the official listing of the fifth generation of Tucson L on April 12, 2021, Du Junbao, the permanent deputy general manager of Beijing Hyundai, wanted to stop talking, expecting and panicing.
Du Junbao joined Beijing Hyundai in 2002 and has not only witnessed the "North Now Speed" of the past 20 years, but also witnessed the fall from 1.16 million vehicles to 385,000 vehicles. After the failure of the new generation of Shengda and Mingtu listings, the new generation of Tucson L is also shaky, if it is not the new generation of Elantra strict defense, Beijing Hyundai's figures in 2021 will be more embarrassing.
Fortunately, there is a Kustu, so that Beijing Hyundai has caught up with the MPV year-end dividend. In October 2022, Beijing Hyundai will usher in the 20th anniversary of the joint venture, in the great changes and innovations, Beijing Hyundai, the year of the weak crown, will continue to struggle to survive in pain and unwillingness. The new generation of MPV Jiahua of the same door brothers was dazzling as soon as it was born, which gave the originally precarious Korean brothers a new turnaround.
Modern-day Kia is still struggling to survive, and some people are already crumbling. 2022 is the year of life and death for Skoda and Chevrolet. Chevrolet has continued to decline over the past seven years, falling from a peak of 717,000 vehicles in 2014 to 269,000 units in 2021.
Skoda with the same disease, 2021 a new generation of Octavia Pro to fight hard, will or the Czech legend in China's last effort, but SAIC Skoda in 2021 down 58.8% year-on-year to 71,200 vehicles, proud Bohemia, its unique style gradually drifted away, sigh, where to ask?!
The fate of Skoda has been doomed since 2014, Van Ander firmly removed its rich bohemian taste, insisting on taking the road of the second volkswagen, which can coexist with the differentiation of the Volkswagen brand in Eastern Europe by virtue of regional division of labor and cost-effective advantages, but in the second hometown of China, it encountered the fangs and the continuous decline of the Volkswagen, and collapsed.
28 million clouds and months
At the beginning of the new year, in addition to the bad news, it is still bad news. At the beginning of last year, the stock market rose encouragingly, and house prices also rose sharply; this year's new spring, the sky is blue, the stock market is green, the housing market is dull, and the mood is naturally cool and cool.
Neither the supply side nor the demand side looks optimistic. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year pointed out that "the mainland's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weak expectations." Among them, demand contraction is undoubtedly the most serious challenge.
At the beginning of 2022, the growth rate of consumption has fallen to a low level, the growth rate of external demand will be significantly lower than last year, real estate investment will be suppressed, the growth rate of manufacturing investment will be high and low, and the growth rate will be difficult to exceed last year, indicating that 2022 will be a year of great difficulties.
Despite the influx of black swan events, the automotive market is still worth looking forward to. Under the background of the real estate market bubble, the comprehensive rectification of the Internet consumption system and the lack of social consumption power, the relatively healthy and powerful automobile industry is expected to become the leader and grasp of industrial and consumer economic growth in 2022.
Accordingly, CHINA AUTOMOBILE expects its total vehicle sales to reach 27.5 million units in 2022, up about 5% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars will be 23 million units, an increase of 7% year-on-year, while new energy vehicles will reach 5 million units, an increase of 42% year-on-year, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%.
The Automobile Commune is slightly more optimistic: in 2022, China's total number of cars is expected to exceed 28 million again, an increase of about 7% year-on-year. Among them, commercial vehicles fell by about 4 to 5% from 4.8 million units last year to about 4.5 million units, and domestic sales of passenger cars increased by about 9% from 21.48 million units last year to about 23.5 million units, of which export sales are expected to exceed 2.6 million units, a 30% increase year-on-year.
Specifically, in the first half of the year, the bayonet is red.
The industry chip crisis will be lifted in the third quarter at the latest, so the first half of the car market is not alarmed, the expected increase is between 4 and 5%, the second half of the firepower is in full swing, the price war, the pressure warehouse war and the traditional power product counter-offensive war are launched at the same time, and the market growth rate will soar to 10%.
Passenger cars increased to 23.5 million units from last year's 21.48 million units sold, a net increase of about 2 million units, of which 800,000 units came from export growth, 1.2 million units were filled with chip gaps in 2021, and dealer inventory replenishment at the end of 2022.
In the case of shrinking freight demand, sluggish freight rates, and overdrafted demand in the early stage, commercial vehicles that continue to be overdrawn are still difficult to improve in 2022. However, under the background of the acceleration of the consumption of the National V inventory and the good form of overseas exports, sales are expected to reach about 4.5 million vehicles.
Judging from the sales targets of many groups currently announced, the targets are ambitious: FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, Geely, Great Wall and Changan have annual growth plans of more than 15%.
The Chinese brand "Four Little Dragons" has set a sales target for 2022 that will reach "1.5 million vehicles", with an increase target of 20%. The target for North-South Toyota and North-South Honda is to target 1 million units, and the four japanese joint ventures that are in the limelight have increased their net sales by more than 1 million units compared with last year.
"FAW Group plans to sell 4.1 million vehicles in 2022, up 17.1% year-on-year." On January 19, FAW Group held a New Year's annual meeting, and General Manager Qiu Xiandong announced the New Year's plan, in 2021, FAW Group will sell a total of 3.5 million vehicles, down 5.56% from 3.706 million vehicles last year.
Although the clouds are thick, the strong can certainly rise from the chaos. This is like our nation, the more difficult it is, the more it shows unlimited fighting spirit and resilience.
It is said that the plan of the year lies in the spring, but in my opinion, spring has begun from winter, at the end of September 2021, "Automobile Commune" moved from Yujinggang Road in Jing'an, Shanghai, where it has been for 8 years, to Shibei High-tech, and relatives and friends have sent many flower baskets and orchids to celebrate the housewarming, and the house is full of fragrance.
Summer goes, autumn comes, winter solstice, four months have passed, other orchids have long gone in turn, but there is a pot, it is facing the southward warm winter sun, facing the 2022 spring wind, stubbornly blooming.
[Please continue to pay attention to the "2022∣ pattern and trend (middle) pushed tomorrow: male lion teenager, do not believe in the myth of love, the road to the dream of "new four modernizations" is full of thorns, there are always those who desperately go to hold high the sickle. "As long as the drums can still ring in our hearts, we are lions!" We will always be a lion! "In the movie "Lion Boy", the scene where the friends chase the car to cheer Ah Juan, I glimpsed the seven-year-old Smell, the six-year-old Liu Liu and their mother, and their mother, and their eyes were clearly tearful. 】