Industrial Securities: In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles or more than 6 million vehicle intelligence accelerated

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Industrial Securities released a research report saying that after the global automotive industry experienced two major black swan events of the epidemic and chip shortage, industry production was blocked, channel inventory continued to decrease, and consumer demand was suppressed. Looking forward to 2022, the bank believes that: on the production side, with the epidemic in Southeast Asia being controlled and chip foundry enterprises increasing supply, the shortage of automotive chips will gradually ease, and automobile production is expected to continue to increase; On the demand side, the current demand for automobile consumption and replenishment of inventory is strong, and the consumer demand that has been suppressed due to insufficient production, long pick-up cycle and narrowing of discounts will be delayed. The bank maintained the expectation that the global automotive industry will usher in recovery growth in 2021-2023, taking into account the shortage of automotive chips or continuing into mid-2022, lowering the growth forecast for 2022 to 9.0% and raising the 2023 growth forecast to 6.2%. It is recommended to focus on BYD (01211), Great Wall Motor (02333), Geely Automobile (00175), NIO . US), Ideal Auto-W (02015), recommended to pay attention to Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868); Parts: It is recommended to focus on Nexteer (01316), Fuyao Glass (03606), Minshi Group (00425); Dealers: It is recommended to focus on Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) and Yongda Automobile (03669); Autonomous Driving: A Recommended Focus on Tucson Future (TSP. US)。

The main views of Industrial Securities are as follows:

The Hong Kong auto sector underperformed the broader market.

The Hang Seng Index rose 2.4% this week; Wind Hong Kong Auto & Parts Index fell 1.5%; The CSI 300 index rose 1.1%; The Wind Automotive & Parts Index fell 3.2%.

In 2022, China's new energy automobile industry will usher in a critical year, and annual sales are expected to exceed 6 million.

On January 18, the 2022 annual work conference of the inter-ministerial joint conference pointed out that 2022 is a key year for new energy vehicles in the mainland to take advantage of the momentum and accelerate development. It is necessary to implement the carbon peak carbon neutrality goal, compile a roadmap for the green development of the automobile industry, study and clarify support policies such as the continuation of new energy vehicle purchase tax preferences as soon as possible, improve the point management requirements, and stabilize market expectations. On January 21, China's National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption, vigorously promoting new energy vehicles and gradually abolishing restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles in various places. Under the dual driving force of policy and market, the association will raise the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%; New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.

The intelligentization of automobiles has accelerated the landing. In terms of passenger cars, Horizon will provide intelligent driving solutions with a full range of journey chips as the core, helping SAIC-GM-Wuling to accelerate the layout of intelligent fields, and cooperative models will begin to land in 2022;

In terms of trucks, Waymo and U.S. truck operator J.B.Hunt will deploy a fully autonomous trucking business in Texas in the coming years; Tucson Will deepen its partnership with Nvidia to design and develop a next-generation driverless domain controller designed for the needs of L4 driverless truck scenarios to accelerate the large-scale operation of autonomous trucks.

In the short term: in 2022, the global automotive industry is expected to usher in recovery growth, and the sales of automobiles in major european and American countries are expected to achieve rapid growth, with a growth rate higher than that of China. The bank expects that the global automotive industry will usher in recovery growth expectations in 2022-2023, considering that the shortage of automotive chips may continue into 2022, it is expected to grow by 9.0% and 6.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

In the long run: the world's major countries in the automotive industry basically entered the stock market, the bank is expected to 2024, 2025 sales growth rate is expected to be 4.0% and 2.6%, 2026-2030 sales CAGR of about 2.1%, it is recommended to pay attention to structural growth opportunities: 1, the process of electric intelligence is accelerating, and the potential of related car companies can be expected; 2. Intelligent + lightweight + electrification to promote product upgrading, the value of related parts and components of bicycles increased; 3. The automatic driving of commercial vehicles has been accelerated, and the commercialization prospects can be expected; 4. Consumption upgrade, luxury cars continue to penetrate; With the liberalization of policies, the development of used cars has accelerated, and luxury brands and used car dealers are expected to benefit from it.

Risk warning: public health events persist; Continued semiconductor shortages; Relevant policies that affect the industry.

This article is from the industrial securities automotive industry research report, analysts: Yu Xiaoli, Zhitong Finance Editor: Yang Wanlin