Industrial Securities: The amount of volume reduction is imminent, and the investment opportunities in the hydrogen energy industry chain are about to be reviewed

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Industrial Securities released a research report that the commercialization trend of China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is determined, the industry is about to usher in a reduction in volume, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will develop into one of the important technical routes for new energy vehicles. Under the current subsidy policy, the vehicle purchase cost has dropped significantly, the whole life cycle cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and fuel vehicles are obviously superior, it is expected that by 2025, the market ownership is expected to exceed 100,000 vehicles, and the market size will be close to 70 billion yuan in 2025, the bank believes that the market will form an industry pattern led by hydrogen fuel cell engine systems and stack companies. With the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it is believed that the first to benefit are the enterprises with technical and cost advantages in key components such as engine systems and stacks: Dongyue Group (00189), Yihuatong (688339.SH), Meijin Energy (000723.SZ).

Policy side: The implementation of the national hydrogen fuel cell vehicle subsidy policy and the "Energy Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comments)" include hydrogen energy in the energy category, respectively, from the financial subsidies and regulations to clear the obstacles for the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The national subsidy policy for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles landed, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong entered the first batch of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters, and the local subsidies exceeded expectations, laying the foundation for the commercial operation of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market in the future;

Supply side: China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain system has been gradually established, the localization process of key components has been accelerating, and the cost has dropped significantly. At present, China has initially mastered the key technologies of core components such as hydrogen fuel cell engines, stacks, membrane electrodes, proton exchange membranes, air compressors, hydrogen circulation pumps, etc., and has basically established a vehicle hydrogen fuel cell technology system with independent intellectual property rights, with large-scale industrialization conditions;

Demand side: "double carbon" policy to detonate hydrogen energy demand, especially in steel, electricity, petrochemical, coal and other fields, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with "zero carbon" attributes ushered in a rapid release period, hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks have become a hot spot in the market. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have their unique comprehensive advantages in the technical route of new energy vehicles in terms of mileage, low temperature environment adaptability, energy supply speed, etc., which are more suitable for long-distance heavy-duty and commercial vehicle fields, and hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks usher in a strategic window period.

Risk warning: the breakthrough of core technology is less than expected, the cost reduction is less than expected, and the supporting hydrogenation infrastructure equipment is not as expected

This article is from the special report on hydrogen energy of Industrial Securities, analyst: Wang Shuai, Zhitong Finance Editor: Yang Wanlin