Author | Li Tingting
At the end of 2020, Zhang Jianping, co-chairman of Aodong New Energy and known as "The First Person to Change Electricity in China", once said: "I have done 20 years of power exchange, and spring has come." This sentence is being confirmed step by step.
On January 18, the Ningde era of power exchange brand "EVOGO" finally came out, which will adopt the combination of power exchange, which can adapt to the 80% of the world's 80% of the world's listed and the next three years to be listed on the power exchange platform development model. Prior to this, CATL participated in the investment of Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd. and signed a cooperation agreement with the Guizhou Provincial Government at the end of last year to build a power exchange network, which shows that the battery giant has continuous thinking about the power exchange model.
This is of course good news for the power exchange industry. From the failure of the domestic government to promote the power exchange model about 10 years ago, to Tesla's abandonment of the power exchange route, the bankruptcy of the power exchange operator Better Place, and then to the many controversies behind Weilai's desperate bet on the power exchange, the power exchange has always been considered a non-mainstream and verifiable model - but the entry of the Ningde era will promote a new review of the power exchange model.
Concept map of power exchange business in the Ningde era
"The Ningde era has so many years of industrial chain accumulation, contact with car companies to get feedback, it chose such a technical route and business model, it shows that the industry should go in this direction." Nie Liang, chairman of Hangzhou Botan Technology, a domestic power exchange operator, told "True Detective".
In addition, as a head power battery manufacturer, CATL's appeal will also play a role in promoting the generalization and standardization of power batteries. If the Ningde era pays enough attention to power exchange, perhaps it will be possible to achieve remarkable results in less than five years. However, as a strong upstream enterprise, ningde times chose to cut into the midstream to do power exchange networks, which inevitably caused some concerns to the entire industrial chain. Can the main engine factory only use the battery of the Ningde era? Will the diversified development and innovation of technology be suppressed?
Finally ushered in the spring of the power exchange industry is happy and worried. Both afraid that the Ningde era is too good, under the rule of the "Ning King", the space left for other players will be greatly compressed; and afraid that the Ningde era is not doing well, too many failure cases in the front, if the Ningde era can not play to convert electricity, then what else can be used to convince the market?
Collective admission of the industrial chain
Sinopec, China Southern Power Grid, traditional main engine factories, new car-making forces, and the Ningde era that has just officially entered the game... All major links in the automotive industry chain have shown the intention of exploring this new blue ocean: according to the data of the "Substation (Electric Vehicle) Industry Research Report 2022", it is expected that in 2025, the mainland electric vehicle substation is expected to reach 22,000 seats, the operating market size is expected to reach 263.1 billion, the substation equipment market is expected to reach 69.3 billion, and the CORRESPONDING SUBstation construction, operation and power exchange equipment CAGR is expected to reach 80%-107% in 21-25 years.
In the 100 billion blue ocean, the dominant player in the industry and the largest value space is the power exchange operator. At present, the players who have officially entered the domestic market to do power exchange operations can be roughly divided into three categories.
The first category is led by car companies and mainly serves car owners of their own brands. One of the most representative is the Weilai car that shouts "no electricity change, no Weilai". On December 10 last year, WEILAI released data saying that the number of its substations has reached 700, the scale is the largest in China, and according to NIO's plan, the global total number of substations under it will exceed 4,000 by the end of 2025, of which about 1,000 substations in markets outside China.
The second type is independent substation operators, the main players are Aodong New Energy and Botan Technology. Both founding teams have a strong background in the electric vehicle industry, the co-chairman of Aodong New Energy is Zhang Jianping, who is known as the "first person to change electricity", and Nie Liang, the founder of Botan Technology, participated in the development of China's first electric vehicle.
Among them, Aodong New Energy is the earliest and largest replacement power station operator in China, according to informed sources, when Aodong New Energy conducted b round financing in September last year, its valuation was already more than 10 billion yuan. But even so, investors still have reservations about the attitude of this battery replacement head operator: "In fact, the new energy sector is watching, and it has also invested in the platform for charging and refueling, that is the big head." ”
According to data from November 2021, Aodong New Energy has built more than 500 substations nationwide. Moreover, Aodong, which felt the spring breeze of changing electricity, released the "Red Aodong Strategic Plan" last year, doubling the number of substations in its planning, saying that it would lay out 10,000 substations nationwide in 2025. Relatively speaking, Botan Technology is more conservative in the expansion of the number of substations, and as of November 2021, its substations have reached 107.
The third category is the players who, like the Ningde era, cut into operation from the upstream and downstream of the energy industry chain.
For example, GCL Energy, from the operation of clean energy into the operation of the substation, its substation brand "GCL Electric Port" from October last year into operation, according to the plan, it relies on the listed company to complete a fixed increase of 5 billion, planning to build a total of 488 substations next year.
In addition, traditional energy companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina are also actively seeking transformation. Last year, both of the substations cooperated with WEILAI have been put into operation, and Sinopec has also proposed the goal of building 5,000 intelligent charging and replacing power stations by 2025.
From thousands to tens of thousands, the number of planned construction shouted by the substation operators is becoming more and more amazing, and a racing race has begun. Behind this is the unique logic in the development of the power exchange industry: compared with the advantages of technology, the core competitiveness of the power exchange operator should be the distribution of the operation network and the density of the operation service.
An investor who observes the power exchange industry told Zhentan: "The head operator does have a lot of technical details, but to be honest, I don't think these technical details are a difficult thing. ”
"The technology of changing the power is not particularly difficult." Nie Liang also agrees with this, "The real key barrier to the power exchange industry is that your technology should fit your business model. In the case of the right path, then everyone is competing for the distribution. ”
A hard-to-make business?
The so-called adaptation of technology and business model, in the power exchange industry, is the problem of how to change the battery (whole package change, sub-box change) and where to change (station change, door-to-door change), different power exchange routes correspond to different operating modes.
The NINGDE era chose the way of sub-box power exchange, that is, the battery was designed as a minimized standard module (this battery is also figuratively called "chocolate power exchange block"), and the owner can choose different numbers of batteries according to the needs of the free combination. Before the Ningde era, Botan Technology has always adopted a sub-box power exchange route.
Aodong New Energy and Weilai are representatives of the whole package of power exchange routes, that is, the use of the "one car, one electricity" model, the battery is directly replaced in the whole package. This power exchange method is more simple and fast to operate, and a fully automated package power exchange scheme has been formed after technical iteration.
Image source: Orient Securities
In addition to two different power exchange technology routes, the power exchange industry is currently mainly divided into two service models.
One is more common for operators to build a replacement power station, and the owner must drive the car to the replacement power station for power exchange. Under this model, high costs, heavy assets, and difficult profitability are the pain points that are commonly talked about in the industry.
Although different operators have given a more optimistic profit model: Botan Technology estimates that the construction cost of a substation is about 4 million, the annual revenue of 250 vehicles is expected to reach 9 million yuan a day, and the internal income after deducting electricity, depreciation, labor and other expenses can reach 20%; GCL Energy calculates that the corresponding investment yield of a single substation is 10.2%, and the corresponding investment payback period is 5.22 years; investors who understand Aodong New Energy reveal that its single station return time is about four years.
Moreover, when Aodong New Energy proposed to build 10,000 charging stations in 2025, one of the reasons given was that with the localization of parts and components and the further large-scale expansion of power stations, the overall cost of building stations will be significantly reduced, and the profitability can be improved accordingly.
However, in actual circumstances, the operation of the substation is very particular about the scale effect, so whether the revenue and profit can climb to the expected figure, the key role is the choice of the "point" of the substation. For example, in the key locations of Beijing, Shanghai and cities with high new energy vehicle ownership in coastal areas, the daily service of the substation is more, the battery utilization efficiency is higher, and the return to the cost is faster; and in the area with low demand for power replacement, the slope of the substation revenue may be far away.
This is also the helplessness of operators, especially for car companies, a sufficient number of power exchange networks with enough distribution is a commitment of car companies to users, but it is not a good business. At this stage, the delivery scale of new energy vehicle brands is still limited, but the power exchange network must be rolled out step by step, so a large number of point utilization rates are low, and car companies are more to ensure the service of car owners and shape brand benefits.
Another model that is different from conventional power station replacement is to rely on car washes, repair shops, 4S shops, etc. around the community to achieve "door-to-door" power exchange services. This corresponds to the construction cost of the station, of course, the labor cost is lower, and at the same time, Botan Technology, which operates a conventional substation and community power exchange service, calculates that the profit margin of the door-to-door service can reach 40%-50%.
Of course, this service model requires the platform to have strong standardization and safety control capabilities, and the part-time "batter changer" of car washes and 4S stores may produce some uncontrollable problems in the service process.
Nie Liang vividly called these two power exchange service models "Starbucks model" and "Luckin mode", and the power exchange service providers spread the operation network through these two main models to compete in the density of layout, the choice of points, and the closeness of services to meet the "coffee preferences" of different scenes and different groups of people.
The wind outlet is reincarnated, changing and unchanging
The power exchange mode has experienced a decade of life and death cycles.
In 2011, Liu Zhenya, then general manager of the State Grid, announced that the basic operating mode of the State Grid for electric vehicles was "mainly replaced". This operating model, which is conducive to the "peak shaving and valley filling" of the power grid, was almost opposed by the automobile industry at that time, and the then minister of industry and information technology even said fiercely that "the new energy automobile industry will not be led by the nose of the power grid company."
About a decade has passed, and the similar beginnings have pointed to completely different developments. It is still the policy that is taking the lead in driving, the construction of substations in 2020 is included in the category of new infrastructure, and at the end of 2021, 15 group standards such as the "Construction Code for Electric Passenger Car Sharing Substations" were released, but the difference is that the benefits of this policy are quickly transmitted to the industrial level.
It is the attitude of the industrial chain that is changing.
In addition to Weilai Automobile, which shouts "no power replacement, no Weilai", and BAIC New Energy, which explored the power exchange earlier, domestic mainstream car companies such as SAIC, Geely, and GAC have also joined the power exchange camp, and Orient Securities expects that the proportion of power replacement models will reach 30% in 2025. Nie Liang believes that the active attempts of car companies and the active entry of the Ningde era show that the industrial chain has reached a consensus.
"It must be that the charging mode is difficult, and it will turn back."
The dispute over the route of power exchange and charging has a long history, and players who support power exchange are adhering to the "separation of vehicle and electricity" in order to truly solve the battery anxiety of new energy vehicles. For example, in 2020, NINGDE Times and NIO jointly invested in the establishment of Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd., and the business direction is to promote the development of the business model of "separation of vehicle and electricity", and on this basis, baaS (Battery as a Service, battery rental service) business was launched.
Moreover, with the Ningde era as an operator, the problem of generalization and standardization of batteries that has plagued the power exchange industry for a long time is also expected to find a solution.
The opposition believes that household charging piles will always be the most important energy replenishment scenarios in the future, and overcharge and power replacement are all to meet the energy replenishment needs of public scenes in a few cases. However, how many households meet the conditions for installing household charging piles is another practical problem that needs to be considered.
In the process of communicating with the industry, the substation is often compared with the gas station, and the mode of power exchange is closer to refueling than the charging station that needs to stay for a long time. Therefore, some people believe that "as long as the public infrastructure is done well enough, private cars will definitely go to the 'public gas station', and the private pile at home is not so necessary." ”
Tesla: Abandon the power exchange and firmly choose the overcharge route
In addition to charging or changing the power, another controversy is whether the power exchange mode should serve the operating vehicle or the private car.
For example, Aodong New Energy has been using the To B model, until the completion of the first power exchange experience center in Aodong on the eve of the 2021 Guangzhou Auto Show, which officially began the transformation to To C. In the past practice, the demand for energy replenishment efficiency and frequency of operating vehicles is more in line with the power exchange mode, and the stable demand can better support the business development of operators.
However, the limitations of the To B model are also very obvious, with limited operating vehicles, a low market ceiling, and concentrated operating hours that will also lead to the dilemma of pressure on the service during the peak period of the substation and the lack of attention during the off-peak period.
Therefore, with reference to the development process of gas stations that first served taxis and later served private cars, many people in the power exchange industry firmly believe that the power exchange mode will inevitably move from To B to To C - if the battery standardization problem can be solved, the public infrastructure construction is perfect enough, and the power exchange mode is not a problem to open up the C-end.
Of course, to achieve such a premise is the biggest difficulty. Ten years ago, the power exchange mode was lifted high and gently put down, and ten years later, the "disliked" power exchange became a new outlet, but those unresolved problems are still hovering above the market.