Introduction: The performance of auto stocks in the third week of 2022 should be "cold", especially the three giants of the new forces on the other side of the ocean, and the market value has evaporated by hundreds of billions.
【Key Points】
· Dealer groups were the only sectors to rise in the period, up 1.12% and increased their market capitalization by about 3.5 billion yuan;
· Passenger cars, new energy & intelligence, parts and components and commercial vehicles, the stock price fell by more than 3% in a week, of which the market value of the first two sectors alone shrank by as much as 240 billion yuan.
In the second week of 2022, auto stocks swept away the haze for several consecutive weeks, the stock price rose by 0.9%, and the market value increased by 350.67 billion yuan; however, the good times were not long, and the auto stocks continued to return to the "double reduction" state in the third week of the new year, the overall stock price fell by an average of 2.69%, and the market value shrank by about 249.8 billion yuan; the brief recovery in the second week finally became a flash in the pan.
This week, the 69 auto-related listed companies registered in the automotive K-line statistics showed a weak trend, of which only 20% of the stocks rose. In the broader market, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.04% and 2.39% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%.
From the overall list, the dealer group sector performed relatively strongly, with a total of 3 stocks in the top five, namely Guanghui Baoxin, Meidong Automobile and Yongda Automobile; Xiaokang shares from the passenger car sector ranked second with a 10.76% increase; Enjie shares rose 4.16%, ranking fifth; and the rest of the "fluttering red" stocks rose within 3%.
In terms of declines, Xiaopeng Automobile's U.S. stocks fell by 15.86%, and U.S. stocks of Weilai and Ideal Automobile also weakened collectively, down 11.63% and 10.38% respectively; at the same time, the one-week decline of Ewell Lithium Energy and Yaxing Bus also exceeded 10%.
Below, the automotive candlestick divides the stocks on the record into five major sectors and analyzes them one by one.
01 Passenger cars: well-off shares rebounded and picked up, and the three forces of the US stock market collectively exploded
In the third week of 2022, the stock prices of 18 listed companies in the (passenger car) vehicle sector fell by an average of 3.27%, and the market value decreased by about 173.1 billion yuan. Among them, only Xiaokang shares, Evergrande Automobile and Dongfeng Group shares rose, and the rest all declined.
Specifically, Xiaokang shares led the rise with an increase of 10.76%, as of January 21, the close of trading at 49.94 yuan / share, the market value increased to 67.9 billion yuan; the stock rose on January 18.
On the evening of the same day, Xiaokang issued a clarification announcement to a person from a securities research institute and a quantitative person of a public fund or a Huawei cooperative company suspected of manipulating securities and insider trading on January 17, saying that it was not aware of or involved in relevant violations of laws and regulations, and its cooperation with Huawei was normal.
Although it is a negative public opinion, the shares of Xiaokang have not fallen but have risen. However, in the last two trading days last week, Xiaokang shares released a weakening signal.
Last week, except for Xiaokang shares, which rose by more than 10%, the rest of the stocks rose more limitedly, among which Evergrande Automobile and Dongfeng Group shares rose by 3.68% and 3.37% respectively.
On the news side, on January 12, Evergrande Automobile's Tianjin plant was fully connected, and Hengchi 5 first cars rolled off the production line. Although it was a milestone event for Evergrande Automobile, the capital market response was flat.
Looking at the shares of Dongfeng Group, the news mainly involves the sale of PSA shares. On January 20, DMHK, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dongfeng Group, signed an agreement with BNP Paribas, which agreed to prompt the buyer to purchase up to 40 million shares of Stella's common stock for 732 million euros. After the completion of the placing, Dongfeng Group will still hold 3.2% of Stella's share capital.
This investment income is a timely rain for Dongfeng Motor Group, which vigorously develops new energy and seeks transformation.
In terms of declines, the top five brushes of the decline were covered by Xiaopeng Automobile, Weilai and Ideal Automobile, and the US stocks and H shares were not spared. Among them, the US stock of Xiaopeng Automobile fell by 15.86%, the largest decline.
As of the close of the market on the 21st, the market value of the three new car-making forces decreased by a total of 130 billion yuan; among them, WEILAI refreshed the intraday minimum of 27.22 US dollars / share in 52 weeks, less than the highest value of 1/2.
On the news side, the power battery oligarch Ningde era released the power exchange brand - Lexing Power Exchange (EVOGO), and the power exchange solution composed of three major products of the power exchange block, the quick change station and the APP, which will undoubtedly form a direct competitive relationship with Weilai, which insists on changing the circuit line.
However, Shen Fei, vice president of Weilai, responded positively and optimistically, saying that the Ningde era personally changed the power supply, which will further promote the development of power exchange.
Last week, due to the poor performance of streaming company Netflix, which led to a 21% plunge in the stock price on the 22nd, the US Wall Street stock market ended a bad week in a pessimistic atmosphere. To some extent, it is inevitable that negative sentiment will spread from technology stocks to other stocks in the market.
On the 22nd, the NASDAQ index, which is centered on technology stocks, plunged 2.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% and the S&P 500 fell 1.9%. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq index fell even more than 7% in a week.
Wind data shows that as of Jan. 21, the total market capitalization of all listed U.S. stocks (excluding OTC) was $64.44 trillion, compared with a decrease of $3.85 trillion last week.
Some analysts attribute the sharp decline in US stocks to the impact of liquidity, while pointing out that A shares do not have to be overly pessimistic; but the question is when will auto stocks bottom out and stabilize?
02 Dealers: Guanghui Baoxin led the rise
In the third week of 2022, the stock price of the auto dealer group segment rose by an average of 1.12%, and the market value increased by 3.471 billion yuan, of which 5 stocks rose and 6 stocks fell.
Specifically, Guanghui Baoxin led the sector and the total list with an increase of 10.77%, closing at HK$0.72 per share as of the 21st; Meidong Automobile and Yongda Automobile followed by 6.9% and 6.25% respectively.
At the industry level, Daiwa recently reiterated its positive views on the auto dealer industry and raised the target stock price of some dealers. Yongda Automobile disclosed its profit forecast on the 18th, and it is expected that the consolidated net profit attributable to shareholders of the company in 2021 will record an increase of not less than 50% compared with 2020.
In addition to the above stocks, Zhongsheng Holdings and Autohome H shares recorded 1.53% and 1.52% gains respectively.
In terms of declines, the top three declines were huge groups down 3.73%, Guanghui Automobile fell 2.94%, and Autohome U.S. stocks fell 2.68%.
Overall, the sector performed the strongest of the five major sectors last week, and it is rare to achieve a "bumper harvest" of stock price and market value.
03 New energy & intelligence: Ewell lithium energy led the decline, and the market value of the plate shrank by 73.8 billion
In the third week of 2022, the 20 individual stocks involved in the 19 new energy & intelligence related listed companies fell as a whole. Among them, the stock price increased by only 4 individual stocks, and as many as 16 stocks declined, with an average stock price decline of 3.2% in one week, and the cumulative market value decreased by 73.832 billion yuan.
Specifically, Enjie shares once again led the sector with a weekly increase of 4.16% ; as of the close of trading on January 21, the stock was reported at 268 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of the week increased by 9.549 billion to 239.165 billion yuan.
On January 19, Enjie Co., Ltd. announced that Shanghai Enjie New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shanghai Enjie"), a holding subsidiary of the Company, and Zhongxin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhongxin Airlines") signed the "2022 Guaranteed Supply Framework Agreement", in order to ensure the procurement of Zhongxin Airlines and the stable supply of Shanghai Enjie, in 2022, China Innovation Airlines promised to purchase from Shanghai Enjie, and Shanghai Enjie promised to supply no more than 2.5 billion yuan of lithium battery isolation membranes to Zhongxin Airlines. Zhongxin Airlines paid an advance payment of 100 million yuan to Shanghai Enjie.
Pilot Intelligence and iFLYTEK ranked second and third in the sector with weekly gains of 2.61% and 2.14% respectively; as of the close of trading on January 21, the former was quoted at 73.07 yuan / share, with a cumulative market value increase of 2.908 billion yuan to 114.266 billion yuan; the latter was quoted at 47.81 yuan / share, with a cumulative increase in market value of 2.324 billion yuan to 111.147 billion yuan.
In terms of decline, Ewell Lithium Energy led the sector with a weekly decline of 13.28%, while ranking second in the overall list of declines; as of the close of trading on January 21, it was reported at 97.3 yuan / share, and the weekly market value shrank by 28.284 billion to 184.7 billion yuan.
The rest of the stocks fell within 10%. Among them, Tianqi Lithium, Fu Neng Technology, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Shanshan Shares and Yahua Group all fell by more than 5%. It seems that not only is the new energy vehicle sluggish, but these lithium battery suppliers who are safe from drought and flood have not been happy in the capital market recently.
Overall, the new energy & intelligence sector, which had just shown signs of recovery in the previous week, once again fell into a downward channel last week.
04 Parts: Ningbo Huaxiang led the decline, and the overall performance of the plate declined
In the third week of 2022, the 10 individual stocks involved in the 9 parts listed companies fell as a whole, with an average decline of 3.28% in one week, and the cumulative market value shrank by 0.85 billion yuan. Among them, the stock prices of 3 stocks rose, and the remaining 7 stocks declined to varying degrees.
Specifically, Huayu Automobile led the sector with a weekly increase of 2.58%, as of the close of trading on January 21, closing at 29.06 yuan / share, a weekly market value increase of 2.301 billion yuan to 91.618 billion yuan.
The other two rising stocks are Fuyao Glass A/H shares, which rose by 1.21% and 0.78% respectively in the week.
In terms of declines, Ningbo Huaxiang led the sector with a weekly decline of 8.82%, closing at 20.88 yuan / share as of January 21, and the weekly market value shrank by 2.657 billion yuan to 16.998 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that on the 17th, the stock achieved a limit. On the evening of the same day, Ningbo Huaxiang issued a non-public issuance report and listing announcement, the company issued 188 million shares, the issue price of 8.61 yuan / share, the total amount of funds raised was 1.618 billion yuan, the net amount of funds raised was 1.61 billion yuan, the issuance object was Ningbo Fengmei Industrial Co., Ltd., the main body controlled by the controlling shareholder and the actual controller Zhou Xiaofeng, and the listing time of the new shares was January 20. The additional offering fee will be used in full to supplement the company's working capital.
(Above and below: Changes in shareholders before and after the issuance)
Prior to the offering, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the Company was Zhou Xiaofeng, who directly held 89,936,799 shares of the Company, with a direct shareholding ratio of 14.36%, and indirectly held 60.5872 million shares of the Company through Ningbo Huaxiang Equity Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Huaxiang Investment") and Fengmei Industry, with an indirect shareholding ratio of 9.67%.
After this issuance, the controlling shareholder of the company was changed to Fengmei Industry, and the actual controller was still Zhou Xiaofeng. Zhou Xiaofeng directly holds 11.05% of the company's shares, and indirectly holds 30.52% of the company's shares through Huaxiang Investment and Fengmei Industry.
In the following three trading days, Ningbo Huaxiang's stock price fell continuously, with a decline of 3.85%, 8.38% and 6.31% respectively.
On January 19, Ningbo Huaxiang disclosed the 2021 annual performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be 1.189 billion to 1.317 billion yuan, an increase of 40%-55% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 1.09 billion yuan to 1.217 billion yuan, an increase of 43.36% to 60.13% year-on-year.
In addition, Fine Forging Technology and Dongan Power fell by 7.38% and 6.43% respectively in a week, as of January 21, the former closed at 14.31 yuan / share, a weekly market value of 6.894 billion yuan; the latter reported 7.71 yuan / share, a weekly market value of 3.563 billion yuan.
On January 21, Dongan Power issued a pre-increase announcement for 2021 annual results, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company in 2021 will increase by 33 million to 50 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 74.31% to 112.59% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to increase by 0-5 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year.
According to the announcement, the main reason for the pre-increase in the performance of the current period is that the company (including Dongan Qifa) has sold 671,400 engines and transmissions in 2021, an increase of 21.82% year-on-year.
Overall, the overall performance of the parts sector was poor last week.
05 Commercial vehicles: the overall stock price and market value have shrunk
In the third week of 2022, 13 stocks in the commercial vehicle sector, except for China National Heavy Duty Truck H shares, the rest of the stocks declined to varying degrees, with an average one-week stock price decline of 3.67%, and a weekly market value contraction of 6.187 billion yuan.
Specifically, Sinotruk H shares became the only surviving stock in the sector with a weekly gain of 0.63%, closing at HK$12.7 per share as of the close of trading on January 21, with a cumulative market value of HK$35.065 billion.
However, Sinotruk A-shares ranked second in the sector with a weekly decline of 6.61%, and as of the close of trading on January 21, the stock closed at 14.97 yuan per share, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank to 17.588 billion yuan.
In addition, Yaxing Bus and Dongfeng Motor ranked first and third in the sector with weekly declines of 10.87% and 5.86% respectively, as of January 21, the former closed at 7.71 yuan / share, a weekly market value of 1.696 billion yuan; the latter reported 6.43 yuan / share, a weekly market value of 12.86 billion yuan.
Overall, commercial vehicles performed the worst of the five segments. However, in 2022, China may open a new infrastructure model, which may bring good news to commercial vehicles.
Views of Autoskline：
In the third week of 2022, the overall performance of Chinese auto stocks turned from up to down, with a cumulative decline of nearly 250 billion yuan in market value in one week.
Recently, the annual performance forecast has been announced one after another, or it may become an important factor affecting the stock price of automobile stocks. As January 2022 ushers in the final week, what will the trend of auto stocks be? We will continue to pay attention.