IAUTO
Speed Depth Attitude
Introduction |
2022/01/24
Difficulties are always temporary, and eventually there will be ways to resolve them.
Reporter 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
"This year, is it a good time to buy new energy vehicles?"
"If you are just needed, then as long as the product strength of the target new car is mature enough, you can make up your mind." If it is not very urgent, then it is still recommended to wait and see for a period of time in the first half of the year. ”
This conversation really happened last week between me and a friend next to me. The fundamental reason behind it is that the brilliant bloom of China's new energy market in 2021 is too dazzling. The qualitative change caused by the quantitative change has really attracted many consumers who are still on the sidelines and decided to choose to enter the game.
According to the relevant statistics of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in the past 12 months, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 505,000 units, an increase of 138.9% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month. From January to December, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year.
In December, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 475,000 units, up 128.8% y/y and 25.4% month-on-month. From January to December, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
At the same time, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger car manufacturers in December was 21.3%, and the penetration rate of January-December was 15.7%; the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached a higher rate of 22.6% in December, and the penetration rate of 14.8% in January-December.
There is no doubt that the long-awaited "inflection point" seems to have really arrived. But past experience tells us that sometimes, after the bloom, the night will appear more lonely. Soon after entering 2022, the news of "bearish" new energy vehicles is constantly coming.
First and foremost, subsidies have declined. In fact, as early as the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" and the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan".
The "Notice" requires that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021 for urban buses, road passenger transport, rental (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and vehicles in the official field of party and government organs.
At the same time, the Notice clarifies that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
Subsequently, new forces such as Xiaopeng and Weilai quickly launched a short-term "insulation" policy, and users who were determined before the specified date will continue to enjoy the subsidy amount in 2021. In contrast, Tesla chose a very simple and rude direct price increase, subsidy decline part, that is, the domestic Model 3, Model Y upward adjustment part.
Secondly, the epidemic, chip shortage, and tight supply chain will most likely continue in 2022. And this has become a dilemma that all new energy vehicle companies must face together. Next, there is a high probability that there will be a situation of "abundant orders, but no car to deliver".
In addition, it is also the most severe point, the fluctuation of the price of raw materials for power batteries. Combined with the news that has been achieved so far, the price of electric vehicle batteries may rise in 2022 after a sharp decline in 10 years because the supply of lithium and other raw materials cannot meet the expanding demand.
While mining companies scramble to ramp up production at existing facilities and develop new sources of supply, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate hit a record at the end of 2021. China, the world's largest producer of batteries, is priced at 261,500 yuan ($41,060) per ton, more than five times higher than in January.
The most expensive component of each battery is the cathode, and other commodity prices for cathode batteries are also rising: the price of cobalt has doubled to $70,208 per ton since january last year, and the price of nickel has risen by 15% to $20,045 per ton.
"Compared to before, it is basically an increase of 30%."
Fluctuations on the supply side trigger the first link of the chain reaction, which must be the main engine factory. After communicating with insiders of a new force, it was learned that the cost of the vehicle power battery has risen seriously. And in the entire industry, it is not only one that is affected.
Therefore, in order to maintain a considerable gross profit margin of bicycles, coupled with the double stimulation of subsidies, car companies have no choice but to adjust the selling prices of existing product sequences. A "wave of price increases" belonging to new energy vehicles is surging forward.
Following Tesla and Xiaopeng announced the price increase of the whole series, it was recently learned from BYD officials that it is also limited by the above reasons, and will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Network and Ocean Network, ranging from 1000-7000 yuan, for details, you can consult the local dealers of BYD Automobile. The price adjustment will take effect from February 1, and customers who have signed up for the deposit before this time will not be affected by the price adjustment.
As we all know, in 2021, after successively taking out the "blade battery" and "DM-i hybrid", only based on the performance at the terminal as a measure, BYD undoubtedly won a complete victory. As an argument, BYD's full line of passenger cars sold 97,990 units and new energy passenger cars reached 92,823 units in December, exceeding the 90,000-unit mark for two consecutive months.
Among them, 44,506 DM-i models were sold, an increase of 448.6% year-on-year, and EV pure electric vehicles were sold 48,317 units, an increase of 148.0% year-on-year.
Looking forward to the whole year, bydir's cumulative sales of all bydir series reached 730,093 units, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars reached 593,745 units, an increase of 231.6% year-on-year. It is reported that this is also the highest annual sales record of new energy of Chinese car companies so far.
It is undeniable that under the impact of many unfavorable factors such as the epidemic, chip shortage, and supply chain pressure, IT is not easy for BYD to hand over such an answer sheet. The outstanding cost control ability is the key to its successful breakthrough.
But this year, as the environment becomes worse and worse, BYD can only choose to compromise and use all price increases to share costs and maintain profitability. More critically, it is not known whether such a choice will affect the process of impacting the annual sales mark of 1.2 million vehicles.
And the perspective is enlarged again, under the accumulation of the above various inducements, the "bearish" new energy vehicle seems to have become a foregone conclusion. Further explained why in my answer at the beginning of the article, there is a suggestion to wait and see for half a year.
After all, once in the next few months, the actual performance and growth rate of the entire terminal market and various car companies are not as expected, and it is very likely that the situation of "letting profit impulses" appear again. At that time, it is not too late to choose to start.
At the end of the article, I still want to say that difficulties are always temporary, and there will be ways to resolve them. Just like the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments on January 21, Beijing time, vigorously develop green transportation consumption.
Vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually cancel the purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles in various places, promote the implementation of support policies such as free travel restrictions and right of way, and strengthen the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging and replacing electricity, new energy storage, and hydrogenation.
In the long run, "positive" new energy vehicles are the unswerving right direction.
| Cui Liwen |
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