Ten years of layout, a success.
No one could have imagined that BYD, which can only be regarded as a second-tier car company in the era of fuel vehicles, has become a leading leader in the new energy era. More than ten years of painstaking achievements in the field of new energy, I am afraid that others have long given up, but Wang Chuanfu finally kept the clouds open to see the moon.
In 2021, BYD's cumulative sales of passenger cars totaled 730,093 units, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 593,745 units, a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. This sales figure has already surpassed the domestic new energy vehicle market, and it is still under the background of the lack of cores in 2021.
What stimulates adrenaline more than the sales figures is BYD's performance in the capital markets. As of the close of trading on December 31, 2021, BYD A shares closed at 268.12 yuan, although the stock price fell back due to the impact of the recent overall correction in the new energy sector. But compared with the low of 156.56 yuan in April 2021, it is still up 71%. The highest stock price even reached 333.33 yuan during the year, with a market value of more than 900 billion yuan, even if it later fell back to about 700 billion, it has surpassed GM, Ford and other established car companies, ranking third in the global car market value, only after Tesla and Toyota.
If you can grasp the buying and selling points, the income of BYD stocks on your hands is likely to double in 2021.
Frankly speaking, whether it is seniority, technology precipitation or market volume, BYD is still a junior in front of toyota and Volkswagen; in front of Tesla's technology trends, it seems a little old-fashioned. However, the logic behind being able to be favored by the capital market and the high stock price is obviously not supported by sales alone.
The technical thinking is correct, and it is also necessary to endure loneliness in order to fully blossom
It is said that Wang Chuanfu is from technology and BYD technology is based, but this is only one aspect.
No matter how hard the technology is, if you don't walk on the right path, it's useless. In 2008, BYD's two-mode electric vehicle F3DM and pure electric vehicle F3e were listed, and finally sold a lonely, and were also regarded as an "outlier" in the industry. The idea is very forward-looking, but on the one hand, all aspects of electric vehicle technology have not yet been developed, on the other hand, the policy at that time has not yet been in place.
Fortunately, people who are engaged in technology have a characteristic that they can withstand loneliness. Survive to the country to vigorously promote new energy, BYD's accumulation of electric technology in the past ten years can be played smoothly, and it is more than a little flowering.
It is not difficult to pay attention to the sales composition of BYD in 2021, and it is not difficult to find that of the 593,745 new energy vehicles sold, 320,810 EV pure electric models and 272,935 DM hybrid models, the proportion of the two is similar, and the development is balanced. Pure electricity Needless to say, BYD has been immersed in so many years, it is a certain first-mover advantage; in terms of hybridization, Grandmaster Toyota has promoted hybrid models in China for so many years, and it has not allowed the sales of hybrid to account for more than 20%, BYD has done it, and has also launched a more powerful DM-i super hybrid and rapid popularization.
And in the two most critical areas of batteries and chips, BYD has its own technical reserves and production capabilities, which also makes BYD one of the car companies with the least impact on batteries and chips in 2021.
The result of thick accumulation is that in 2021, BYD has frequently exploded in various market segments: in the Dynasty series of models, Han and Tang have always been in short supply, and Qin, Song and Yuan are in the forefront of their respective market segments; Dolphin has broken through the monthly sales mark of 10,000 vehicles in 4 months of listing, becoming another explosive model in the pure electric market.
Double industry chain closed loop, the "big devil" of the new energy industry
Even with deep technical accumulation, the annual sales of 730,000 vehicles cannot support the market value of 700 billion, and the complete industrial chain closed loop is BYD's "killer skill".
If the previous ten years in the technical salary, comprehensive layout, in exchange for today's market sales in full bloom, then BYD's layout in the industrial chain is to prepare for the next decade of outbreak.
In the field of upstream battery raw materials, BYD acquired 18% of the equity of Tibet Zabuye Lithium Industry 10 years ago, with stable lithium ore resources; in 2021, it invested in Shuneng Minerals and grasped the right to speak in phosphate ore resources. In the field of chips, BYD has invested in the semiconductor materials company Pilot Film and began to prepare for the supply guarantee of chips.
In the midstream, BYD has long mastered the core technology of Sanden, independently developed core components such as IGBT, battery, motor, electronic control, etc., and launched a dense, more stable and safer lithium iron phosphate blade battery; at the same time, BYD is also the only car company with a complete industrial chain of IGBT, which can completely independently produce and manufacture IGBT chips. BYD batteries and semiconductors are considering independent listing, which is undoubtedly two imaginative trump cards.
In addition to the downstream manufacturing of new energy vehicles, BYD has also entered the field of power battery recycling. Thus forming a complete industrial chain closed loop.
In addition to the closed loop of the electric vehicle industry chain of raw materials - three electricity - chips - vehicles, BYD is also building another lesser-known industrial chain closed loop: photovoltaic - battery - energy storage - automobile.
BYD Photovoltaic is the world's first and only photovoltaic module manufacturer to achieve mass production of silicone packaging. In terms of energy storage, BYD's global power battery loading and energy storage battery installed capacity reached 37.921 GWh in 2021. This may be the core difference between BYD and the new car manufacturers, technology giants and traditional car companies. Its industrial complexity is no longer as simple as an automobile manufacturing enterprise, and it can be called the "big devil" of the new energy industry, which is also the root cause of capital being so optimistic about BYD.
What more needs to be broken through in 2022?
In such a promising situation, are there any hidden worries? Apparently, there are still some.
The market value of 900 billion yuan may already be the capital paying for BYD's future dividends, and the price-earnings ratio that was once as high as 928 times (now falling back to 238 times) has far exceeded the imagination of traditional manufacturing companies. Whether it can support or even break through this market value again depends on BYD's performance in 2022.
Although BYD has built barriers in the technology and industrial ecosystem, the current competition of new energy is still the competition of market scale. At this stage, the biggest basis for the valuation of new energy vehicle companies is sales data and profitability.
In terms of sales, BYD has previously said that it expects to sell about 1.2 million vehicles in 2022. With BYD's current momentum, it is not difficult to achieve this goal only numerically. However, from a profit point of view, the input cost of maintaining a closed loop of the entire production chain and the restrictions on providing business to the outside world will greatly reduce BYD's profits.
According to the data monitored by Wilson, from January to July 2021, the average price of BYD's bicycles has reached 151,800 yuan, not only exceeding Volkswagen's 147,800 yuan, but also the gap between the two sides is still expanding. But if you calculate the net interest rate, BYD still has a big gap, BYD must continue to break through on the high-end route of more than 400,000 yuan.
The new high-end brand that BYD will release in 2022 is a key drop. The high-end of the brand is sometimes not only in the high-end of the technical field, compared with the new forces, the technology-oriented BYD in the marketing level of temperament and action is still more like a traditional car company, science and engineering flavor is strong, which means that BYD needs to do more innovation and breakthroughs at the marketing level.
Under the huge and complex product matrix, the marketing channel may also be the time to break the old and establish the new. BYD has been pursuing a branch sales strategy for many years, which is conducive to the management and incentive at the dealer level, but from the user side, it is not conducive to accurately attracting users, especially high-end users. After the launch of the high-end brand, whether it can launch a corresponding set of marketing methods is a test for BYD's decision-making level.
Write at the end:
The time has come, the momentum has been made, and the excitement is just around the corner. For BYD, the spring of the new energy era has quietly arrived. 2021 has become the first year of BYD's full outbreak in the new energy market, technology and dual industrial chain layout have been formed, and the operation is good, this momentum has been formed, unstoppable. The rest of the "xing" depends on whether BYD, a "straight man of science and engineering", can seize this historic opportunity. (Text/UVIS Auto Old Cannon)
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