The trillion giant suddenly announced its march in this direction: the minutes of the power exchange meeting!

Core Background:

1. The sales of new energy vehicles are rising rapidly, the supply chain continues to be booming, and the tracking and research on the installation of charging piles and power supply equipment shows that vehicle sales are in the forefront, and the contradiction between vehicles and piles is increasingly aggravated.

2. It is expected that from 2022 onwards, in response to the demand for new energy vehicles to replenish energy, the fast charging and slow charging of charging routes will continue to advance, and the power exchange mode will also begin to develop vigorously.

3. The expected difference in the power exchange market is large, the expectation is low, the cognitive bias is also large, the role of the leading industry has changed, and the business model has also changed. It is foreseeable that the Ningde era and the main engine factory will begin to enter the track, and it is expected that China will begin to lead the new global energy network solution, and the industrial chain will usher in a new take-off.

1. From the overall point of view of power exchange equipment, China is in the early stage of development. Among them, Weilai has gone faster, with 500 stations in China and cumulative sales of more than 100,000 vehicles. With the rapid growth of vehicle sales, there is a shortage of charging supply, and the power exchange mode will rise faster.

2. Weilai and Shandong Weida established a joint venture company in 17 years, specializing in automated substations and other related equipment. At present, the investment in single-station equipment is about 2 million, the investment scale of heavy-duty truck replacement power stations is larger, and the cost of single stations has increased by more than 1 times.

3. In 2025, domestic WEILAI plans to invest in the construction of 4,000 substations, and it is expected that the overall market space will be relatively large in the future. For example, from the perspective of the operating end market, according to the domestic passenger car operation vehicle 4 million-5 million, assuming that each station serves 100 vehicles, it is expected that more than 40,000 replacement stations are needed.

public:

1. At present, for the new energy vehicle power supply method, the mainstream is charging, because the charging capital expenditure is relatively low, the early charging is mainly charging, but the charging is long-term and the efficiency is low. At present, the business model and construction speed of charging cannot meet the market demand for new energy vehicles, and the contradiction will become more and more prominent.

2. The problems that hinder the development of the power exchange mode mainly include the compatibility of battery packs and the investment pressure of heavy assets in the power station.

3. Energy supply mode, the future will be diversified, according to different scenarios, consumption objects, etc., charging and replacing parallel complementarity。

4. There are two main modes of power exchange: the car company's own power station; the separation of vehicle and electricity, and the third-party operation of the power exchange. Service providers pay relevant rents to car companies and charge users. The entire substation currently has a long investment cycle, and with the development of the market, the recovery cycle will be rapidly shortened.

5. National policy support: Intensively launched since 2020, in April 2020, it was clearly developed to vigorously develop the power exchange model and subsidize it; the pilot work on the application of the new energy vehicle power exchange model issued in October 2021 was expanded to 11 pilot cities.

6. Some OEMs plan for power exchange: Wei has come to 2025, with more than 4,000 substations; BAIC cooperates with third parties to build 5,000 seats and serve 2 million vehicles in 2025 for applications such as single scenarios.

7. Battery enterprises: Ningde times layout power exchange field, the establishment of times electrical services.

8. Traditional energy institutions: Sinopec plans to build no less than 5,000 hybrid functional stations (refueling + power exchange) during the 14th Five-Year Plan period; the State Grid Electric Vehicle Company cooperates with industrial chain companies (BAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Nio, etc.) to sign agreements to explore commercial construction and operation, charging, power exchange, energy storage comprehensive use scenarios (three stations in one).

9. From the development of charging stations, it is believed that under the current power exchange policy, 2022 may enter the first year of the outbreak of the power exchange industry.

10. Investment direction: The construction of substations will drive the growth of supporting power batteries, power exchange equipment, power grid equipment, etc., and it is expected to exceed 30GWH cumulative incremental demand in 2025. Directly favorable to Ningde, battery increment + power exchange business layout. In addition, Ningde may become a leader in battery ownership, bargaining power, control of charge and discharge algorithms, and leading of new generation battery design. Traditional distribution network equipment, charging and replacing equipment: Charging power technology and customer groups, charging and replacing equipment is highly homologous. Incremental distribution equipment manufacturers of power distribution equipment for changes in the capacity of the power grid brought about by the construction of electric field stations.

Car:

1. Starting from 2022, the contradiction of new energy power replenishment will intensify, and the construction of related equipment and mode optimization will be accelerated.

2. China Charging Alliance data show that according to the data tracking of the vehicle-to-pile ratio, in 2015 there were 200,000 external energy, 2018 to 800,000 single years, the gap in 2021 expanded to 2.53 million, the cumulative gap in the past 5-6 years is close to 5 million, and then increase next year, the gap is expected to rise to about 8 million, and the charging difficulty is getting worse and worse.

3. During the National Day period, the difficulty of power replenishment was intensively reported and paid attention. As the number of vehicles continues to increase, it is expected that there will be problems in charging difficulties in first-tier cities. The intensification of contradictions is expected to begin to erupt in 2022.

4. Commercial advantages of power exchange mode:

Alleviate the contradiction of the vehicle-to-pile ratio: solve the charging demand of the surge in sales of new energy vehicles.

Better design of the whole system: Compared with the construction cost of distributed charging piles and the impact cost of the power grid, from the perspective of system engineering, the treatment through the centralized substation is a better solution to the power grid system and a better solution to the infrastructure construction.

Vehicle-side energy into the energy network: vehicle-to-electricity separation, vehicle-mounted energy evolved into a distributed energy storage unit, is an important part of the future of the new energy network, the car more to the mobile space development, vehicle-mounted energy returns to the essential attributes of energy, and in the way of energy storage units into the entire energy network. Synergy with energy storage.

The standardization of the battery industry chain is accelerated, and the efficiency of the whole industry is improved: the rise of the power exchange model changes the complex matrix of the existing models and batteries, and the optimization of the whole industry chain is the only way.

5. The market for the power exchange mode expected to be poor points: battery standardization, battery residual value, heavy asset investment, market capacity, etc., these problems have begun to be gradually solved.

Non-standard: the battery pack matrix corresponding to the model is very complicated, the battery pack of each car in the early days of the industry is different, and it is very difficult for a single car company to achieve power exchange standardization within the enterprise. It is unrealistic to rely on the platform internally and be compatible with other car companies externally. Only a few single models or platforms can be seen testing the waters. The car enterprise end is extremely scattered, the battery segment is indeed highly concentrated, this problem can only rely on the power battery leading company to achieve industrial standardization.

Industry leaders are expected to appear: to replace electricity, it must be standardized, this role in addition to the guidance of national policies and standards, only the market-leading enterprises that occupy an absolutely dominant position in the industry can bear. No car company can afford it. At present, the head power battery enterprise has a solid position and is expected to rely on its absolute market position, based on the role of battery manufacturers, to promote, lead and promote.

Battery technology progress, residual value improvement: the technical iteration and process optimization of leading companies in the industrial chain have greatly improved the service time and performance parameters of lithium batteries after 5 years, the battery depreciation formula has changed, and battery assets have evolved from burden to value creation units.

Heavy asset investment can be undertaken through a combination of banks, government-backed institutions, state-owned energy systems, etc.

National policy expectations: At present, the national incentive policy for the field of power exchange is being intensively introduced, and heavy subsidies, such as power stations, are expected to quickly promote the power exchange model like new energy vehicle subsidies. Battery technology advances, cycle life is improved, and battery attenuation becomes smaller.

6. The development of the power exchange mode will start from the carrier of the attributes of the means of production: B-end passenger cars, heavy trucks, light logistics vehicles, and finally to the vast world of C-end passenger cars. The future of the power exchange market must be in passenger cars, B + C terminal passenger cars.

7. From automobile power, to energy storage units, to energy grid connection, etc., to build a new energy network system for the future.

8. About the market space: simply operating passenger cars according to the country's 4 million-5 million B-end passenger cars, it is necessary to support 45,000 passenger car replacement stations; according to the C-end market ownership, it will eventually develop from the current 250 million to 400 million, and it is conservatively estimated that at least more than 1 million passenger car replacement power station facilities are needed. Matching the number of existing gas stations, the number of future replacement stations may need to match the number level of refueling guns.

9. The market space is expected to be 10 billion and 100 billion in the short and medium term, and more than 1 trillion yuan in the long term.

10. Investment options: substation equipment suppliers, etc. Upstream equipment suppliers of substation replacement: power exchange module, mechanical module, cooling module, positioning module, charging mode, AGV, etc.