From the "scalper" squeezed into the automobile industry, stirring up a pool of muddy waters; to the car companies to follow the real estate "off-plan" method, intending to get more attention; and then to the "power battery giant" Ningde era, BYD, the Great Wall and other enterprises the market value surge to fall; or under the impact of new car manufacturing, the marketing model of traditional car companies has collapsed, and new business methods have gradually been built...
In 2021, the changes that have taken place in China's auto market during this year are unexpected, which can be called the most turbulent in the history of China's auto market, but it is also worthy of everyone's expectations.
Now that 2021 has passed, let us base ourselves on the present, look back at the past, and peek through the heavy filters to see the new changes in the Chinese car market in 2021.
Scalpers stir the automotive industry
In 2021, while the sales of some domestic cars are hot, they have also bred alternative ways to make money. Scalpers who once mixed in major railway stations and hospitals quietly extended their business to the automobile industry.
Previously, tank models, because of filling the loopholes of domestic off-road vehicles, and very cost-effective, thus becoming a consumer's feast, but due to the shortage of chips and other reasons caused by insufficient production capacity, tank 300, tank 500 models are facing a car is difficult to find dilemma.
Where there is a market, there are scalpers. The tank series models were also maliciously preempted by scalpers, resulting in real consumers having difficulty picking up the car. Scalpers reversed orders, and there was a "strange" scene where used cars were more expensive than new cars.
On the second-hand trading platform, orders such as tank 300 and 500 are asked by scalpers for 40 million yuan to 10,000 yuan. This has also led netizens to satirize it as "Tank 500, which has become an investment and wealth management product." ”
After that, the tank brand immediately issued an announcement, saying that it would carry out real-name certification and resolutely eliminate scalper behavior.
In fact, tank brands have suffered scalper incidents more than once. In August 2021, less than half an hour after the Great Wall Motor Tank 300 Cyberbook Booking System was opened, the website was crowded, and all orders were also snatched up, at the same time, there was a post on the second-hand trading platform to resubscribe the Tank 300 order, of which the price increase was up to 30,000 yuan.
Scalpers' behavior not only seriously affects the legitimate rights and interests of consumers, but also affects if the car companies are not handled unfavorably. Under these posts, some people questioned that the tank brand order agreement allowed the undersigned user to cancel it free of charge, which led to the rampant scalpers, the fundamental purpose of which was to create the illusion of hot orders and deliberately indulge this behavior.
Not only in the field of fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have also been maliciously preempted by scalpers.
Popular models such as the Xiaopeng P5, Extreme Krypton 001, and NIO ET7 are all scalpers. In order to improve performance, more related companies sell to consumers that orders can be transferred, and this behavior is no different from the behavior of scalpers.
Xiaopeng Automobile said in an interview with the media: "Once the official is verified, it will cancel all the rights and interests of the transfer order. ”
Now, with the New Year approaching, scalpers seem to be even more rampant. Recently, Changan Auchan officials found that the network platform sold Changan Auchan X5 Tiger Xiao limited edition model orders at a higher price, so it decided to recover all the 185 Changan Auchan X5 Tiger Xiao limited edition orders that were maliciously ordered.
For how to prevent scalpers from disrupting the market, some industry insiders commented that for scalpers, car companies should not only express their position, but also follow the situation, specify relevant management methods, strictly control the marketing system, and at the same time, during the critical period of china's auto market transformation, the market should also incorporate the entire industrial chain into legal management.
The automotive industry "futures" are rampant
There are scalpers running rampant in the front, and then there are car "futures" to stir up trouble.
Futures, in a word, are the use of money to buy unfinished business. The most well-known is the "off-plan" of real estate.
The "off-plan housing" in real estate refers to the commercial housing during this period before the developer obtains the real estate warrant. At this stage, consumers began to buy commercial housing, it can be said that the house is still in the PPT stage, and the developer has already got the money. Evergrande thunderstorm, affecting the interests of thousands of consumers, the main reason is that consumers spent money to buy Evergrande's off-plan housing, but before the house was built, Evergrande was on the verge of bankruptcy.
"The world has been suffering for a long time", consumers are helpless and sad.
Driven by the interests of "off-plan housing", car companies have also begun to follow suit.
In the end, which car company engaged in the car "futures" first, there is no way to examine. Tesla, however, is the one who uses this tactic to the limit. Last year, I saw netizens comment on Tesla's "Tesla's continuous profitability of Tesla's financial report is no longer news, but the biggest surprise is that this financial report came out, and there was no futures car listed." It can be seen that Tesla has made a lot of efforts in "futures".
Autonomous car companies have also begun to follow this practice, especially new cars.
At the beginning of 2021, at the annual NIO Day event, it released the brand's first sedan, the ET7. However, the most complaining thing about this car is that it needs to wait a year to be delivered. Although Weilai Li Binmei said that "Weilai ET7 uses too many advanced technologies", the industry still satirizes that ET7 is a futures car.
At another NIO Day event a year later, ET7 finally had the latest progress, according to Weilai Li Bin, ET7 adjusted the price and part of the configuration. This means that the product that has been waiting for a full year is finally to be delivered.
The domestic car companies that satisfy the appetite of consumers are not only Weilai.
The Avita automobile brand jointly created by Changan Automobile, Huawei and CATL has long been disclosed to the outside world before its birth, and relevant progress has been disseminated from time to time. It could be called a "futures" brand.
Its first product, the Avita 11, is also a "futures" model. According to Tan Benhong, chairman and CEO of Avita Technology, the purpose of this exhibition is mainly to show the appearance of Avita 11 to the outside world. At present, it is only a prototype model.
According to public information, Avita 11 will be officially released in the second quarter of this year, and the first batch of users will be delivered in the third quarter.
However, this behavior that has been successfully experimented with by the "predecessors" has not been sought after by the capital market. After the press conference, the stock price of Changan Automobile, Avita's largest shareholder, fell continuously. By November 19, Changan Automobile's stock price had fallen by 16%.
Why do so many car companies follow the example of "futures"? The reason is mainly that in this era of information flooding, car companies want to continue to stimulate consumers' nerves and increase exposure through the product life cycle, which has the same effect as the founder of the new car to create personal IP. On the other hand, the listing of car companies needs to rely on capital to continue to live, and the release of "futures" can effectively support stock prices.
However, just like Avita, "futures" is a double-edged sword, and the more people use it, not only can not achieve the effect it should have, but it will be counterproductive.
"Heroes" by Market Cap
What intuitively reflects the operating conditions of car companies is sales, and what reflects the future development of car companies is the market value.
For example, in 2021, the list of the market capitalization of some international car companies (excluding China) was announced. Tesla topped the list with a market capitalization of trillions of dollars, four times more than the second-place Toyota and 9 times the market value of the third-place Volkswagen.
If you look at sales, Tesla's sales are far less than Toyota and Volkswagen, and there is also a large distance from Nissan and Hyundai. The reason why the market value is the sum of them is that Tesla is a leader in the field of new energy vehicles with great prospects, and the ecology created by Tesla is more like benchmarking Apple than car companies.
We turn our attention to the Chinese market. Looking at traditional car companies such as great wall and geely, the market value of wei xiaoli new car companies, and the listed enterprises in the automotive industry chain such as Ningde times, the increase in market value this year is always closely related to new energy.
Great Wall Motors can be described as such a model. Under the invasion of the black swan event in 2020, Great Wall Motors' stock price has been hovering around the position of 8 yuan per share. Relying on the help of new energy, in 2021, the stock price of Great Wall Motors will reach 69.8 yuan per share, which shows the great impact of new energy.
However, it is strange that in the two months near the end of the year, the stock price of Great Wall Motors has plunged for ten consecutive weeks, falling by more than 30%, hitting a new low in 5 months.
Some people in the industry speculate that it is due to the impact of the Euler chip incident. However, Starfield Jun believes that this event will not have such a far-reaching impact. Another view may be more appropriate: this may be due to the cyclical correction of stock prices, because the whole vehicle is a durable consumer product with obvious cyclical properties. And Great Wall Motors' nearly ten-fold increase has also reached the peak of this cycle.
If you compare the stock prices of BYD and Great Wall Motors, it is not difficult to find that the time of decline in the two stock prices almost overlaps, both in the late October and early November periods. BYD's market capitalization has also fallen from the highest 333.3 yuan per share to 255 yuan per share today, a decline of more than 20%.
In addition to the market value of traditional car companies, the stock prices of Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile have tended to be flat, and during the year, the stock prices of the two in the US stock market have not fluctuated too much, and in the stock price of Hong Kong stocks, Xiaopeng Motors is slightly better.
However, relatively speaking, the market value of Weilai Automobile is not satisfactory. NIO has fallen from $66.99 per share at the beginning of 2021 to $31.68 per share today, a drop of more than half. Among them, there is a lot to do with the negative, the product lag and the failure to open up the mass market.
Looking at the performance of car companies in the capital market, the Great Wall, BYD, and Wei Xiaoli are still "little witches, and this year's dark horse is the "power battery king" - the Ningde era.
In 2021, CATL grew from the lowest 404 yuan per share to the highest point of 692 yuan per share, with a total market value of up to 1,448.13 billion yuan. Looking at the stock market in 2021 of the NINGD era, thanks to the release of sodium-ion batteries and the expansion of battery factories. However, as of the press release, the Ningde era has a large correction, falling to today's 565 yuan per share, a decline of nearly 20%.
Contrary to the disadvantages in the capital market, the installed capacity of the Ningde era is still growing. According to SNE Research, in the first 11 months of 2021, CATL ranked first with a battery installed capacity of 79.8GWh, with a market share of 31.8%, which is the sum of the total installed capacity of the second place LG and the third place Panasonic. With the blessing of the world's first installed power battery, the market value of the Ningde era may be expected to grow again.
Summary: 2021 is a turning point for autonomous car companies, and the overall trend of China's auto market has shown an upward trend this year. However, with the frequent emergence of various problems such as marketing and safety, with the strong entry of multinational car companies, the days of independent brands will not always be smooth, the strong are stronger, and the weak have nowhere to live. Arrogant soldiers will be defeated, independent car companies in the full horsepower at the same time, still need to be down-to-earth, in the subtleties to see the real chapter.