More than a year ago, we had a special discussion about weilai's power exchange and Tesla's charging mode dispute, in the long endurance, fast charging technology can not achieve the controversy was repeatedly mentioned, another giant into the power exchange battlefield, this is the famous "Ning Wang" Ningde era, when Weilai no longer fight alone, charging and changing the big war is really going to start in full swing?
First, the Ningde era officially entered the battlefield of power exchange?
On January 16, Capital State learned that on January 15, CATL Yu Guanwei announced that it would hold an EVOGO power exchange brand conference on January 18, and released a poster "Energy, Swap It Out!" After the slogan, on the 16th, the Ningde era re-launched the official micro, "Freedom, call out!" posters.
It is reported that catheter era this time the new replacement brand named EVOGO, can be interpreted as "evolution + go" meaning, of which Evolution represents evolution, evolution. The relevant people of the Ningde era also said that the newly launched power exchange products will also be for all car companies in the future.
The so-called "power exchange" refers to the "separation of vehicle and electricity" service. Industry insiders analyze that in the late stage of the development of the new energy vehicle industry chain, with the comprehensive promotion of rechargeable battery standardization, electric vehicles and car batteries can also exist completely as completely independent individuals, when the battery of the electric vehicle needs to be charged, the owner can go to the replacement power station, directly replace a fully charged battery, you can complete the charging process.
As a new type of electric vehicle energy supplementation scheme, the power exchange has a bit of "that is, replace and go", which can provide rapid power exchange services and completely solve the problems such as insufficient charging piles and long charging time in the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles.
According to the news, on December 11 last year, Weilai announced that it had laid out 702 substations nationwide, and by 2025, it planned to deploy more than 4,000 substations around the world. And between 2022 and 2025, WEILAI also planned to add more than 600 new power stations per year. At the same time, the cumulative number of substations deployed outside the Weihe Chinese market is about 1,000.
At the same time, according to Bloomberg's forecast, by 2040, The proportion of new energy vehicle power consumption in the total electricity consumption of new energy vehicles in china will climb from 1.3% in 2020 to 8%, when the scale of China's power exchange market will exceed 500 billion yuan, and the power exchange business will become a new performance growth point for the company.
According to a report in China Energy News, in fact, as early as 2008, there was a pure electric bus replacement model in China, but due to the policy environment, cost and other factors at that time, there was no large-scale promotion. Multinational auto companies such as Toyota, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz have not adopted the power exchange model. In fact, as early as 2013, Tesla also briefly tested the water exchange mode. However, due to its high cost, customers did not buy it, and Tesla had to "put the replacement technology on the shelf". At present, the power exchange time of BAIC Substation is generally about 3 minutes and 30 seconds, which can be equivalent to the refueling time of fuel vehicles. NIO has announced that it has basically achieved a 400-kilometer replacement power station in East China, making electric vehicles gain "unlimited mileage" in East China.
Second, who is the king of the power exchange and charging war?
In fact, under the impetus of Tesla, charging has almost become the consensus of most market participants, however, in gagae Aian in 2020, a new power battery technology poster called "8 minutes full of 80% battery, NEDC life of 1000 kilometers" caused the market to pay close attention and eagerly discuss, but soon was hit in the face, in the Year's China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Chinese Academy of Sciences academician Ouyang Minggao said: "If someone tells you, this car can run 1000 kilometers, It can be fully charged in a few minutes, and it is safe and the cost is very low. With current technology, he must be a liar. ”
Then, in the face of the future dilemma of charging, the power exchange mode has become logical, then, when the charging and power exchange war really starts, who is the real king?
First of all, charging and replacing the power is a dispute over the route, but in fact the scene is completely different, on the surface, the power exchange mode and our traditional refueling mode is very similar, is a kind of you drive to the power station and then use a few minutes to refuel (replace the battery) and then open again, it can be said that the power exchange mode is a kind of user experience that is almost exactly the same as the refueling mode, but in fact we can not always compare the power exchange mode and refueling, but to distinguish the scene of these modes, The scene of the power exchange mode should actually correspond to most of the scenes that require long-term uninterrupted use of cars, such as the more common urban traffic scenes such as online car-hailing, buses, taxis, etc. in our daily lives, as well as the travel scene of the highway, in these scenarios, whether it is because of making money or because of long-distance travel, long-term charging is actually very difficult to do, and changing electricity has become the simplest thing. For most office workers and urban transportation, the cost of the power exchange mode is undoubtedly higher than the cost of the charging mode, for example, you go to work on average every day to open a thirty or forty kilometers, to the company will stop the car, at night after work will drive home, in this case, charging is undoubtedly the most cost-saving way to play.
Secondly, the key point of power exchange and charging lies in whether fast charging and long endurance can be combined. In fact, as academician Ouyang point of view, the current technical conditions of long endurance and fast charging is difficult to meet the paradox conditions, if the future car charging technology can reach a level similar to the mobile phone "charging five minutes, talking for two hours", in fact, it will be possible to completely change the current power exchange and charging dispute, as long as the charging is fast enough, in fact, there is no problem of power exchange and charging, but from the current point of view, GAC Aean still finally chose to concede, Its core logic is still fast charging and long battery life are two different product lines, and two different sets of products should be launched. Therefore, as long as the problem of fast charging and long endurance cannot be effectively solved, the war between charging and replacing electricity will actually continue.
Third, the cost problem is the biggest problem of power exchange. According to the previous calculations of China Energy News, if the enthusiasm of private cars for the power exchange model is not high, the replacement users cannot reach a certain scale, and the operating costs of the replacement power station are difficult to recover. It is understood that the load rate of a single substation reaches 50% to achieve breakeven. That is to say, a power station that can change power more than 400 times a day must complete at least 200 or so power exchanges every day to avoid loss. From the current point of view, the biggest problem with power exchange is the high frequency to alleviate the cost, but from the current point of view, most of the company's power stations are actually not enough to eat, and it is difficult to get an effective balance between the cost of power exchange.
However, for Weilai, the joint promoter of its power exchange mode has one more, which is undoubtedly a good thing, this Time Ningde Era personally went down, which undoubtedly proves that the power exchange mode at least has a certain degree of market advantage in the market, this is the most promising thing for the power exchange mode, but the power exchange or charging This big war will definitely be fought for a long time, unless the battery technology achieves breakthrough progress, otherwise everything is still unknown, whether it is the battery fast charge endurance first breakthrough or the battery replacement cost first down, This will become the key point that determines the direction of the entire industry.