On the evening of January 14, three coal listed companies disclosed their "gorgeous" 2021 performance forecasts. Among them, Jinkong Coal Industry is the "pre-increase king" of the performance growth rate of coal enterprises in 2021 so far, and the net profit has increased by 455.84% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of the e company reporter, as of now, there are 6 coal listed companies that have disclosed the 2021 performance forecast, all of which have increased significantly. Judging from the logic of last year's industry price increase, it is expected that most of the coal companies will continue to disclose the beautiful performance in 2021.
It is worth mentioning that the institutional researchers also used the "emotional" term in the coal industry research report, saying: The lack of coal in 2021 is common, and the price of coal has been unprecedented in history. 2021 will be an extraordinary year for the coal industry.
According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, the coal index (000820) has a cumulative maximum increase of about 96% in 2021.
Last year's sharp rise in coal prices was the main reason for the pre-increase
In the disclosed pre-increase announcements of coal enterprises, the increase in coal prices in 2021 is the first reason for the pre-increase.
Jinkong Coal Disclosed a performance forecast on the evening of the 14th, and it is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be about 4.868 billion yuan, an increase of about 455.84% year-on-year. The reason for the growth is the increase in the domestic coal market price in 2021, and the company's commercial coal sales have increased; the shareholding company Tongxin Coal Mine has a good efficiency, which has greatly increased the company's investment income.
China Coal Energy expects net profit in 2021 to be 11.77 billion yuan - 14.38 billion yuan, an increase of 99.4% to 143.6% year-on-year. In 2021, the sales price of major products rose sharply, the company made every effort to increase production and sales to ensure energy supply, scientifically control costs, and confirm the increase in investment income of participating enterprises, which greatly increased the company's performance year-on-year.
Xinji Energy expects to achieve a net profit of 2.429 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 186.7% year-on-year. The main reason for the substantial increase in the company's profit is: due to the increase in commercial coal sales and the increase in coal prices.
It is worth noting that the operating data provided by the xinji energy announcement shows that the company's annual sales of commercial coal last year were 16.9007 million tons, an increase of 1.1461 million tons year-on-year; the annual comprehensive price of commercial coal was 622.97 yuan / ton, up 192.11 yuan / ton year-on-year.
In addition to the above-mentioned 3 listed companies, three other coal companies disclosed the 2021 pre-increase announcement earlier, and the performance was equally dazzling.
The main coal circulation of property environmental energy is expected to be 52.132 billion to 62.132 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 73.40% to 106.67% over last year; net profit of 725 million yuan to 900 million yuan, an increase of 44.18% to 78.88% over the previous year; and non-net profit of 680 million yuan to 855 million yuan, an increase of 39.90% to 75.79% over the same period last year.
Meijin Energy announced on the evening of January 7 that the company's pre-profit in 2021 was 2.5 billion yuan - 3 billion yuan, an increase of 259.54% - 331.44% over the same period of the previous year (after adjustment). During the reporting period, the coal and coke market was running at a high level; there was basically no epidemic in the company's area, the coking project and the ethylene glycol cogeneration LNG project in the company's Huasheng chemical project were put into operation, and the company's main product output increased compared with the same period last year.
Shaanxi Black Cat expects net profit to increase by 1.306 billion yuan to 1.406 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 672.5% to 724% year-on-year. The company's main products increased production and sales throughout the year, of which the production and sales of coke and BDO increased by about 25% and 50% respectively.
This year, coal prices may return to medium-term equilibrium prices
Combing through the coal index (000820), which nearly doubled at its highest surge in 2021. On January 4, 2021, the coal index opened at 2279.89, and since then it has begun to oscillate upwards.
On September 16, 2021, the coal index reached a year-high of 4463.54, which is also the high point of the index in 6 years. In 2015, the coal index reached 4476.21.
After reaching the high point of the year, affected by the policy, coal prices began to decline, and the coal index also began to fall rapidly, on November 17, 2021, the coal index reached a low of 2886.05, falling from the high point of about 35%.
On the 14th, 000820 closed at 3235.08, down 3.55%.
It is worth mentioning that the coal stock with the largest increase in 2021 is a coal company ST Pingneng, which has submitted an application for termination of listing, with an increase of 203.32% last year. On the evening of December 8, 2021, ST Pingneng issued an announcement that Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Longyuan Power") was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the absorption and merger of ST Pingneng. As the world's largest wind power operator, Longyuan Power will officially land on A-shares in the near future.
In addition, the second and third places in the list of coal companies' stock price increases in 2021 are Yankuang Energy and Meijin Energy, which rose by 147.41% and 142.96% respectively last year.
According to choice data, of the 37 coal industry constituents, a total of 30 harvested positive gains in 2021, and 5 more than doubled the increase.
Zhongtai Securities Research Report reviewed the coal market in 2021, saying: Last year, due to insufficient supply and demand, coal prices continued to rise, reaching an unprecedented height in October, and then rapidly pulled back under the strong regulation of the policy; most stocks in the coal industry also experienced rapid rise and fall, the entire sector rose in the leading position in the whole market, and the performance of companies with a high proportion of coal in the market was elastic, and the stock price fluctuations were more obvious.
After experiencing the "magnificent" market in 2021, how will the coal market go next?
CITIC Securities said that 2022 or coal prices to the medium-term equilibrium price return to the year, after experiencing a substantial increase in demand in 2021, it is expected that the effect of industrial electricity and real estate policy relaxation in 2022 will still have support for coal demand, the industry or show a pattern of supply and demand, but will return to the balance of supply and demand from extreme supply tension, in this process, the average price of the thermal coal market in 2022 or fall back to the level of 850 ~ 900 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of about 12%-15%. But it remained high. Due to the increase in the annual long-term price and the increase in superimposed output, the performance of leading listed companies may still increase.