In 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?

On January 11, the price of Xiaopeng Automobile increased. As one of the domestic electric vehicle "three musketeers" Xiaoweili, Xiaopeng Automobile has a great impact on its price increase announcement in the industry.

In the past year, new energy vehicles have opened their first year, setting a record high of nearly 3 million vehicles sold a year, and some car companies have sold more than 10,000 vehicles a month, which industry insiders call "the awakening of new energy consumers"; Li Bin, chairman of Weilai, said at The end of Versailles, "I don't know why so many people still go to buy fuel vehicles", recruiting a wave of black.

At such a milestone node, the price of new energy vehicles is about to rise again, what impact will this have on hard-won consumer habits, will electric vehicle consumption decline in 2022, and will the new energy sector that fell sharply in the beginning of the year stage last year's feast?

Price increase storm

On January 11, Xiaopeng Automobile announced the latest subsidized price of all models. The P7 series rose by 4300 yuan ~ 5900 yuan, and the P5 series and SUV model G3i all series rose by 4800 yuan ~ 5400 yuan. Xiaopeng only adjusted the price this time, and there was no change in design, configuration and other aspects.

Regarding this price adjustment, Xiaopeng has already made a preview. After the announcement of the "Notice" of subsidy decline at the end of the year, Xiaopeng Automobile officially launched a limited-time insurance policy, saying that users can lock in the subsidy in 2021 before 24:00 on January 10, 2022, and the part of the decline is borne by Xiaopeng Automobile. From January 11, 2022, Xiaopeng Motors will adjust the price system.

However, on the day of the announcement of the price increase, investors were still a bit "small emotions", And Xiaopeng Automobile once fell more than 5% intraday, closing down 4.46%.

The price of new energy vehicles has risen, and Xiaopeng is neither the only one nor the first. In fact, at the end of last year, Tesla has taken the lead in raising prices twice, becoming the "whistleblower" of the collective price increase of new energy electric vehicles in 2022.

On November 24, 2021, Tesla raised the price of the domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions by 4752 yuan, and Tesla sales staff said that this was caused by the expected state subsidy from 15840 yuan to 11088 yuan.

By December 31, 2021, Tesla raised prices again, and the rear-wheel-drive versions of the Model 3 and Model Y rose by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan, respectively. Officials said that this time it was caused by the decline of subsidies and the increase in the price of raw materials.

Before and after Tesla and Xiaopeng Automobile adjusted prices, some friends also made similar decisions:

Nezha Automobile's U part of the car was raised by 3000-5000 yuan, and some of the Nezha V models were raised by 2000 yuan;

GAC Aeon LX increased by 4,000 yuan, and the listed new AION S Plus increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model;

Ideal Auto will cancel the benefits of the first owner's lifetime warranty of three electric and extended range systems from February 1, and adjust it to 8 years or 120,000 kilometers;

FAW-Volkswagen announced that its new energy models will increase in price from New Year's Day 2020, and the price of the ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ pure electric models will increase by 5400 yuan.

In this way, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles has become a major trend after the beginning of the year, and the initial motivation is the decline of new energy subsidies. On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice" on the adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which clarified that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.

According to the latest subsidy plan, from January 1, 2022, pure electric passenger cars with a mileage of less than 300 kilometers are unsubsidized; the subsidy for pure electric vehicle models of 300-400 kilometers is reduced by 3900 yuan year-on-year; the subsidy for pure electric vehicle models greater than/equal to 400 kilometers is reduced by 5400 yuan year-on-year; and the subsidy for plug-in hybrid models is reduced by 2000 yuan year-on-year.

In addition to the decline in subsidies, the supply of the "brain" (chip) and "heart" (battery) of the body cannot match the rhythm of the expansion of the scale of the enterprise for the time being, and the continuous rise and shortage of upstream raw materials also put pressure on new energy vehicle companies.

Affected by the epidemic and natural disasters, chip manufacturers concentrated in the United States, Japan and other places have limited production capacity and reduced shipments, while Most of China's high-end chips are currently dependent on imports, and the "chip shortage" clamps down on the progress of delivery of car companies, the supply and demand are unbalanced, the amount of goods is scarce, and the price naturally does not come down.

Lithium batteries, which account for 30% to 40% of the cost of the vehicle, its raw materials are almost a price per day, the prices of raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt are rising, and the prices of power battery cathode materials and electrolytes are continuing to rise.

According to the calculation of the Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII) of The High Industry, the actual increase in the cost of battery companies is about 20%-25%, and the purchase price of the battery that is finally transmitted to the vehicle factory may actually increase by about 10%-20%, further challenging the profits of car companies, and the final price increase seems to be a last resort.

In addition, the new energy vehicle companies that are in the stage of "hitting the world" seem to be still not getting rid of losses behind the scenery, and increasing revenue without increasing profits is still the main tone.

According to the third quarter report of 2021, WEILAI's third-quarter revenue was 1.8368 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.5217 billion yuan; Xiaopeng Automobile's third-quarter revenue reached 5.72 billion yuan and a net profit loss of 1.59 billion yuan; ideal automobile's third-quarter revenue was 7.78 billion yuan, with a net loss of 21.5 million yuan.

This means that when the boots of the subsidy reduction in 2022 land, the profit pressure of car companies will be released in a short period of time, and a part of the cost will be passed on to consumers.

What can I expect in the future?

In the year before this wave of price increases, new energy vehicles can be said to be raised and morale is high.

According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger cars in China was 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 14.8%. You know, this figure was only 5% in the previous year.

However, in just 10 days since the beginning of 2022, the new energy sector has experienced a "frightening moment". The stock prices of a number of related companies continued to fall, during the year, the market value of the stock price "Evergreen" Ningde Era evaporated by 8.7%, BYD fell by 10.8%, and the cumulative evaporation market value of the A-share new energy vehicle sector exceeded 500 billion yuan.

The market seems to have cooled down from the frenzied passion and begun to seriously think about the future of new energy vehicles. Industry insiders pointed out that the new energy sector plummeted, partly because the investment market has long sung the stock prices of leading companies in many industries, overdrafted future performance, resulting in a deviation in its valuation, and the high correction of stock prices is also a rational performance of investors.

In addition, subsidies have declined, car companies have raised prices, and investors are worried that rising prices will stimulate consumers, which in turn will affect the original high-speed development momentum.

In fact, the market's understanding of subsidy decline is not comprehensive. On January 11, the Association of Passenger Transporters reported that although the subsidy standard for bicycles has been reduced, the upper limit of 2 million vehicles for the total number of subsidizable cars has been lifted, which is actually a positive.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is actually more liberal, bringing huge incremental space, and the amount of subsidies has increased by at least 10 billion yuan, which has a significant pull effect on the car market.

The Association predicts that the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, and the market penetration rate is about 22%. Among them, the cumulative sales of energy passenger cars will exceed 5.5 million units, and the market penetration rate will reach about 25%.

From the market level, some car companies choose to bear the pressure of subsidy decline and material rise, and do not increase prices; other car companies have launched strategies such as limited-time price insurance, which has set off a wave of purchases, and even some stores have even "robbed" exhibition cars.

Industry insiders believe that after several years of market cultivation of new energy vehicles, consumer awareness tends to mature, and will not give up the original plan to buy new energy vehicles just because of the reduction of subsidies.

The biggest changes and uncertainties come from the competitive landscape of car companies. The adjustment of subsidy policy means that manufacturers should attract consumers with excellent products rather than prices and subsidies, which is a switch from subsidy-driven to market-driven mode, which will inject new vitality into the entire industry.

Under the law of survival of the fittest, car companies will be forced to come up with more technologies, higher quality, faster iteration products to cope with market competition, and car companies that cannot do so will fall.

This also means that at the beginning of the new year, the vibration of the new energy sector is a signal of the innovation of the entire industrial model, and what is opened is a new knockout game, which is also what Li Bin, He Xiaopeng and other industry leaders said, "Never say that the most dangerous time has passed."

It's just getting started.