Written by | Zhao Zhefeng
Edit | Yang Bocheng
Caption | IC Photo
At the beginning of the new year, it is still the new power brands that have issued the first wave of sales report cards.
Among them, the top three "Wei Xiaoli" continued to sell more than 10,000 per month, and the sales volume of 2021 was approaching the mark of 100,000 vehicles. Among the second-tier groups, Nezha continued to break through 10,000 plays, with zero running setting a new monthly sales record, and Weima refreshed the quarterly sales record.
Just when the new power group is soaring, perhaps not many people have noticed that traditional car companies have already shown signs of gaining momentum.
Whether it is independent sub-brands such as GAC E-An, Euler, Extreme Krypton, and Lantu, or traditional powers such as BYD, Tesla, and Volkswagen, they have shown full staying power in 2021. The traditional giants, who have been reacting slowly in the new energy battlefield, have finally implemented their counter-offensive strategies that have been brewing for many years to the sales level.
The real challenge of the new forces has only just begun.
The traditional car company "trumpet" has just grown
In order to achieve a broader space for development, traditional car companies have separated their new energy product sequences from the original organizational structure and become independent sub-brands. Or start from scratch and build a new sub-brand.
Nowadays, these single-open "trumpets" have become an emerging force that cannot be ignored in the market.
The Euler brand, which was independent from Great Wall Motors in 2018, and the BAIC Jihu, which was incubated by BAIC BJEV, are the first cases of traditional car companies "opening trumpets".
However, the new energy market environment at that time was not mature, and the two brands themselves did not have a distinct positioning and outstanding core competitiveness, so the market position was once relatively marginalized.
It was not until March 2021 that Euler released the slogan of "the world's most woman-loving car brand", which gradually "broke the circle" and achieved a counterattack in sales. In the first 11 months of 2021, the Euler brand sold 114,000 vehicles, up 162% year-on-year. The Beiqi Polar Fox has not been able to make any achievements so far, which is a relatively failed "trumpet".
Speaking of Euler, it is precisely because of the emergence of this brand that "her culture" has begun to be popular in the automotive circle. Nowadays, more and more car brands have become more and more important to female users.
For example, the Volkswagen ID.3, the third model of the ID.series, has its main users including women; last September, Lynk & Co 06 also launched a special Edition of Sheero pink for female users. In addition, models including AION Y, Hongguang MINIEV, Chery QQ Ice Cream and other models are also available in pink body.
Although Euler is the earliest case of traditional car companies "opening trumpets", it is not the leader of this trend. In fact, the phenomenon of traditional car companies collectively "opening trumpets" began in the second half of 2020.
In July 2020, Dongfeng Group released a new high-end electric brand Lantu.
In November 2020, GAC Aean, which originally belonged to GAC New Energy, became independent.
In January 2021, Zhiji Automobile, jointly built by SAIC Motor, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Alibaba, was officially released.
In March 2021, Geely's Extreme Krypton Automobile was officially unveiled.
In May 2021, Avita, a high-end brand jointly created by Changan, Huawei and CATL, surfaced.
Although the birth time of these brands is several years later than that of new forces such as "Wei Xiaoli", it is not the product of car executives patting their heads.
For example, Geely's JiKr Automobile, the brand after up to 5 years of conspiracy and planning to officially meet with the public; Lantu Auto Technology Co., Ltd. was established as early as 2018, after more than 2 years of preparation before releasing the Lantu brand; Changan Automobile also announced its plan to build a high-end brand in 2018.
In fact, the initial idea of these traditional car companies is to empower their new energy vehicle products with the word of mouth and brand awareness accumulated over the years, rather than creating independent sub-brands.
However, with the rapid changes in the market environment, it has proved that if you follow the old model of the past, you cannot compete with Tesla and the new forces.
The complex organizational structure, lengthy work processes and inefficient management models of traditional car companies have limited their innovation and mobility to a certain extent. Compared with the new power brands that use Internet thinking to build cars, the response of traditional car companies is always half a beat slower.
When the concept of "smart electric vehicles" is rooted in the hearts of more and more consumers, traditional car companies need to change their thinking, integrate fresh blood, and embrace change. All this can only be achieved by setting up a new sub-brand and separating it from the original architecture.
These newly established sub-brands basically have the following common points: completely independent operation, complete market-oriented operation, new organizational structure, new talent team, and new business model.
When these sub-brands show their new appearance and show innovation in products, sales channels (mostly using direct sales models), user operations, etc., they gradually occupy the minds of consumers.
In addition to the above-mentioned Euler, the new energy "trumpet" of traditional car companies broke out collectively last year.
For the full year of 2021, GAC Aeon sold 124,000 vehicles, an increase of 119% year-on-year, surpassing all new power brands.
In December 2021, it opened the delivery of the Krypton 001, which had just completed 2 months, and handed over a report card of 3796 vehicles delivered in a single month, an increase of 88.7% month-on-month.
In December 2021, Lantu FREE deliveries exceeded 3,330 units, an increase of 192% month-on-month, and since the start of deliveries in August, it has achieved a month-on-month increase in delivery volume for five consecutive months.
It can be seen that some of the new energy sub-brands of traditional car companies have begun to enter the right track and are expanding at a rapid pace. Compared with the 2-3 years that "Wei Xiaoli" took from the opening of delivery to the monthly sales of the 10,000, the process of the former seems to be much faster. This is no small challenge for the entire new power group.
From quantitative change to qualitative change
In addition to the sudden emergence of traditional car companies, there are also some new energy brands that have been relatively strong in the past, and they have also completed the process from quantitative change to qualitative change in 2021. There are reasons for the market environment, but more often than not, it comes from its own progress.
In 2021, BYD won the domestic new energy sales championship without suspense. Cumulative sales (new energy passenger cars) for the year were 594,000 units, up 231% year-on-year.
For reference, CAAM predicts that China's new energy passenger car sales will increase by about 150% year-on-year in 2021. In other words, BYD's sales growth rate is much higher than the overall market.
As a domestic new energy leader for more than two decades, IT is not surprising that BYD has won the championship. But a year ago, I am afraid that not many people would have thought that BYD in 2021 would be so stunning.
Image source: Guosen Securities
Since 2010, BYD's annual sales (fuel vehicles + new energy vehicles) have stabilized between 400,000 and 500,000 vehicles, and the monthly sales volume basically does not exceed 50,000, so BYD also has the title of "40,000".
However, since the second half of last year, BYD has continuously refreshed its monthly sales record, soaring from 50,000 vehicles to 90,000 vehicles at the end of the year, not only completely removing the hat of "than 40,000", but also raising its volume level by more than one level.
Not surprisingly, BYD will become the fourth autonomous car company to reach millions of units per year after Chang'an, Great Wall and Geely in 2022.
The reason is, first of all, the success of the DM-i hybrid system, and the second is the widespread application of blade batteries.
In 2021, BYD's DM models sold 273,000 units, an increase of 469% year-on-year, contributing most of BYD's sales increase in 2021.
In addition to being able to balance fuel economy and power, the biggest advantage of the DM-i hybrid system is the price. Compared with the same level of fuel vehicles, BYD DM-i models are only priced 10%-15% higher than the former, and can even almost erase the difference after exemption from purchase tax, and can be green cards in some areas, which is self-evident in the attractiveness of consumers.
Moreover, this cost advantage comes from BYD's self-produced and self-research capabilities of the whole industry chain accumulated over the years, which cannot be copied by other car companies in the short term. It is expected that until pure electric vehicles are fully mature, BYD DM-i will continue to occupy a larger share of the new energy market.
In addition, regarding the blade battery, as the current "strongest form" of lithium iron phosphate batteries, it can be said that the potential of lithium iron phosphate is squeezed to the greatest extent, and the energy density of the battery cell reaches 200Wh/kg, which is comparable to some high-nickel ternary lithium batteries, and makes the NEDC endurance of Han EV and other models break through 600km, which is unimaginable in previous lithium iron phosphate batteries.
What is more critical is that in recent years, electric vehicles have spontaneously combusted and collided with each other, causing people to question their safety. The lithium iron phosphate battery with better heat resistance has regained the initiative from the hands of ternary lithium batteries during this period.
For example, the "needle prick experiment" is the "masterpiece" of BYD's blade battery, which not only attracts peers to imitate, but also further strengthens its reliability perception in the minds of consumers.
In addition, with the decline of subsidies year by year, the advantages of subsidies obtained by ternary lithium batteries with high energy density have been eroded, and the disadvantage of high manufacturing costs has been gradually magnified.
In the case of performance does not occupy an overwhelming advantage, the lower cost and safer lithium iron phosphate battery has regained the favor of the market, and bydy has also revitalized.
From January to November 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 64.8GWh, slightly higher than the 63.2GWh of ternary lithium batteries; in 2021, BYD's pure electric vehicle models sold 321,000 units, an increase of 145% year-on-year.
Like BYD, Tesla is also growing much faster than the market as a whole.
In 2019, Tesla sold 45,000 vehicles in China.
At the beginning of 2020, the domestic Model 3 began to be delivered, and Tesla's domestic sales exceeded 140,000 vehicles.
At the beginning of 2021, the domestic Model Y began to be delivered. At present, Tesla has not officially released sales in China, but from the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, in the first 11 months of last year, Tesla's domestic car sales were 250,100 units. Coupled with imported car sales, it can be estimated that Tesla's domestic sales in 2021 will be about 300,000 units.
It can be seen that the sharp reduction in price after localization is the main reason for the sharp increase in Tesla's sales.
And with the continuous introduction of domestic models, Tesla has also become the largest "catfish" in China's new energy market. It not only brings unprecedented pressure to domestic new energy vehicle companies, but also brings huge impetus. Objectively speaking, Tesla's localization has accelerated the development of China's new energy automobile industry to a certain extent.
For the new forces, their future will also be more confrontation with Tesla.
Previously, there have been rumors that Tesla will launch an entry-level electric vehicle with a more people-friendly positioning, or will be named Model 2 or Model C, and the price is expected to be around 25,000 US dollars (about 159,000 yuan), compared with volkswagen ID.3.
▲ Tesla's new entry-level car hypothetical diagram
The launch of this car will undoubtedly have a great impact on the new power brands such as Xiaopeng and Weima that focus on the 150,000-200,000 range market. Including WEILAI, it also plans to launch sub-brands with more affordable prices. For Nezha and Zero Run, which are second-tier new power brands that are ready to develop the high-end market, Tesla is also a big mountain in front of them.
For these new brands that have not yet crossed the "life and death line" of 100,000 vehicles per year, Tesla's product layout speed will directly affect its future trend.
There is also a brand that must be mentioned, that is, Volkswagen.
In the whole year of 2021, the cumulative sales of Volkswagen's ID. series pure electric vehicles in China reached 70,600 units. Among them, the monthly sales in December reached 13,800 vehicles, and the sales exceeded 10,000 for four consecutive months, which can also rank among the best among the new power brands.
Although after the full use of the MEB pure electric platform, the Volkswagen ID. series models still failed to show too many highlights in terms of electrification and intelligence, but for the "conservative" consumers who do not pursue a sense of technology and intelligent experience, the Volkswagen brand itself is a "golden signboard", coupled with id.4 X in the crash test of the China Insurance Research Institute to obtain the best results in the history of new energy models, combined with the background of the current frequent electric vehicle accidents, its "big factory", "safe" and "reliable" brand image is more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Together, the above factors have boosted the market performance of the Volkswagen ID. series.
With super brand power, the Volkswagen ID. series is expected to have a relatively strong market performance in the next 2-3 years, but the long-term performance depends on whether it can make a breakthrough in intelligence.
The pain of transition
Although traditional car companies are fierce in the new energy counterattack, they are still in the transition period, and they will inevitably experience pain, which also gives the new forces more time to grow.
With the new power brands such as Weilai implanting the concept of "user operation" into the automotive after-sales service and achieving good results, traditional car companies have also begun to follow suit.
Nowadays, traditional car companies and sub-brands, including Extreme Krypton, GAC Eian, Euler, Lantu, Zhiji and other traditional car companies, have established their own Apps and have exclusive user communities, which directly shortens the distance between enterprises and users, users and users.
Now, whether it is a new force car company or a traditional car company, they are more willing to listen to the voice of users, and more importantly, they can quickly implement it. Including model naming, body color, door design, steering wheel shape, configuration details, etc., users have a certain right to decide.
This seems to be a good thing, whether it is from the perspective of building brand reputation or from the perspective of increasing user stickiness, this move is quite effective.
However, just as the so-called crowd is difficult to reconcile, if there is completely "zero distance" between enterprises and users, it will inevitably cause some trouble.
For example, previously, because it did not grasp the distance between the user and the lack of relevant experience, it accepted a large number of orders before the finalization of the product, and at the same time launched user co-creation activities many times, changing the product configuration and design again and again, and finally causing some users to be dissatisfied. Another example is the recent "polar charging" incident, which is also due to the lack of experience in operation of its users.
Regarding user operation, Extreme Kr CEO An Conghui once said, "There is no standard answer to this question." Only the most suitable, there is no best solution."
If you want to do a good job in user operation, you need to go through the process of exploration, and it is normal for there to be a "rollover" event in this process.
New forces such as "Wei Xiaoli" have gone through the initial stage of exploration and gradually formed their own user operation system. But in this process, traditional car companies need to start over.
In general, the new energy market will be an incremental market for a long time to come. Before the advent of monopoly companies, in theory, everyone had a chance. When the counter-offensive horn of traditional car companies is officially blown, the new forces will usher in the ultimate challenge.