Essence Securities: The lack of core in December eased the production and sales of the automotive industry this year is expected to improve in an all-round way

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that the automotive research team of Anxin Securities released a research report saying that it is expected that the traditional car and new energy vehicle industry will improve in an all-round way in 2022, focusing on recommending high-quality independent vehicles and parts companies. Among the vehicle enterprises, the key recommended high-quality industry leaders are: BYD (e platform 3.0, dmi models with the same force), GAC Group (new energy vehicles to accelerate the expansion, fuel vehicle bottom up, the joint venture company to contribute significant performance flexibility), Great Wall Motor (fuel, hybrid, pure electricity are ushering in a strong product cycle), Xiaopeng Automobile (product intelligence advantages lead and gradually increase the volume); among the parts companies, focus on recommending Founder Motor (expanding new forces + first-line autonomy + overseas high-quality customers), Changshu Auto Accessories (benefiting from the volume of new forces customers), Xingyu Shares (benefiting from the high-end of the lighting industry), Kelai Electromechanical (CO2 heat pump shipments boost + valve products to accelerate the expansion).

Passenger car retail sales increased by 15.9% month-on-month in December, a significant improvement. Retail sales of passenger cars in December were 2.105 million units, down 7.9% year-on-year and up 15.9% month-on-month, higher than the 10% month-on-month increase in December of the calendar year, and the month-on-month trend improved significantly. Among them, 930,000 self-owned brand retail vehicles were sold, an increase of 4% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month. In December, the autonomous share reached 46.3%, an increase of 6.9pct year-on-year; the annual share reached 41%, an increase of 5.6pct. Mainstream joint venture brand retail sales of 930,000 units, down 19% year-on-year and 19% month-on-month, improved significantly. Among them, the U.S. market share reached 9%, down 0.6 pct year-on-year; the Japanese market share reached 22.2%, down 1 pct year-on-year; the French share increased by 0.3 pct; and the German system is gradually improving. Luxury car retail sales in December were 250,000 units, an increase of 22% over December 2019, and high-end exchange demand continued to be strong.

The lack of cores continued to ease, and the production side of passenger cars in December increased year-on-year. Passenger car production in December was 2.466 million units, up 7.2% year-on-year and 10.6% month-on-month, indicating a further reduction in core shortages. Among them, the production of independent brands increased by 13% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month; luxury brands increased by 20% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month; and joint venture brands decreased by 1% year-on-year and increased by 11% month-on-month. In terms of car companies, GAC Group and Great Wall performed well: GAC Trumpchi/Guangfeng/Guangben produced 4.4, 10.3 and 94,000 units in December, respectively, up 35%, 26% and 12% year-on-year, and 25%, 22% and 8% respectively, and Great Wall Motor produced 163,000 units in December, up 9% year-on-year and 31% month-on-month.

In December, new energy vehicle sales maintained high growth, and the penetration rate of new energy at the retail end reached 22.6%. Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475,000 units in December, up 128.8% y/y and 25.4% month-on-month. Sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrids were 392,000 units and 83,000 units, respectively, up 126.3% and 141.6% year-on-year, respectively. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December was 22.6%, and the penetration rate from January to December was 14.8%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In December, the penetration rate of independent new energy was 39%, the penetration rate of luxury brands was 32.7%, and the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture new energy was only 3.3%. Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December were 505,000 units, up 138.9% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month. Among them, the top 10 car companies in wholesale sales are BYD 93338 units, Tesla 70847 vehicles, SAIC-GM-Wuling 60372 vehicles, Great Wall 20926 vehicles, Chery 20501 vehicles, Geely 16831 vehicles, Xiaopeng 16000 vehicles, SAIC Passenger Car 14868 vehicles, GAC Aeon 14500 units, ideal 14087 vehicles.

It is expected that the traditional car and new energy vehicle industry will improve in an all-round way in 2022. In terms of new energy vehicles, the subsidy policy in 2022 will keep the technical indicators and threshold requirements unchanged, while the subsidy scale does not lock in the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will run through the whole year. It is expected that the expansion of the scale of new energy vehicles and technological progress will continue to improve the ability to reduce costs; at the same time, with the implementation of subsidies and the rise in raw material prices, the prices of some models will be raised, but consumer demand will not be reduced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow in 2022. In terms of traditional cars, as the shortage of chips continues to improve, the orders of the previous reserve are expected to be delivered; as new products are launched by car companies one after another, demand is released, and traditional passenger cars are expected to improve significantly in 2022.

This article is based on a research report released by the automotive research team of Essence Securities Research Center; Zhitong Finance Editor: Wenwen.