The first "huge positive" of the new energy track in 2022 came from the association.
The new energy track, which started unfavorably, suddenly ushered in a good expectation. After hours on January 11, the Association of Passenger Transporters issued a report saying that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a huge positive, according to the latest released policy, the subsidy scale in 2022 is not locked from the original expected upper limit of the subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout 2022.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space, and the amount of subsidies has increased by at least more than 10 billion yuan. At the same time, the federation is expected to increase the sales of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022.
Since the beginning of 2022, the new energy track of A-shares has been continuously sold off by market funds, and in the first 6 trading days, the cumulative evaporation market value of the A-share new energy vehicle track exceeded 500 billion yuan. Some analysts believe that the latest report of the Association of Passengers may alleviate the concerns of the market to a certain extent. On the evening of the 11th, the new car-making forces listed on the US stock market rose collectively, with Ideal Auto rising more than 8%, Xiaopeng Automobile up 7.3%, and Weilai closing up 3.8%.
The "huge benefit" of the new energy track
After the market hours on January 11, the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Market Information Association") released the December 2021 National Passenger Car Market Analysis Report, which clearly stated that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a huge positive.
The Federation pointed out that according to the latest released policy, the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system framework and threshold requirements will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will not be locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million subsidies, and the subsidy will be realized throughout 2022. With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction capabilities, it is expected that the increase in new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 will be very strong.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, further said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space, and the amount of subsidies has increased by at least more than 10 billion yuan, and the pull effect on the car market should be extremely obvious.
The association is also expected to increase the sales of new energy passenger cars in 2022 from 4.8 million to 5.5 million units, and it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25% in 2022; new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
The Federation of Passenger Vehicles said that the stability of policy subsidies will inevitably promote the surge in China's total sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 and continue to maintain a super leading position of more than 50% of the world's share.
In addition, the Association believes that with the implementation of the new energy subsidy decline, the price of some models has been fine-tuned, the consumer mentality has also changed, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected, but the new energy vehicles continue to be hot, and there is currently a large backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so most of the sales of new energy models will not be significantly affected by the decline.
This statement has alleviated the market's concern about the decline of the new energy subsidy policy to a certain extent. On the evening of the 11th, the new car-making forces listed on the US stock market rose collectively, with Ideal Auto rising more than 8%, Xiaopeng Automobile up 7.3%, and Weilai closing up 3.8%.
At the same time, the Association disclosed sales data for December 2021, and the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December 2021 reached 475,000 units, up 128.8% year-on-year and 25.4% month-on-month. From January to December, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, far exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year.
This is in stark contrast to the performance of fuel vehicles, with retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles reaching 17.16 million units in 2021, down 6% year-on-year. Throughout the year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles from January to December reached 14.8%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
The trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles forms a strong differentiation characteristic, realizes the partial substitution effect of new energy vehicles on the fuel vehicle market, proves the change in consumer demand through the user's market-oriented choice, and accelerates the pace of transformation to new energy in the automobile market.
New energy 2022 made a bad start
Since the beginning of 2022, the new energy track of A-shares has been continuously sold off by market funds, becoming the sector with the largest adjustment.
Among them, the new energy track leader - Ningde Times rarely staged 7 consecutive falls, falling by more than 8.7% in 2022, and the total market value evaporated by more than 119.6 billion yuan; in addition, BYD also suffered 6 consecutive declines, a decline of 10.8% during the year. According to Wind statistics, in the first 6 trading days of 2022, the cumulative evaporation market value of the A-share new energy vehicle track exceeded 500 billion yuan.
In fact, after reviewing the market news, there are not many substantial bearish new energy tracks, and the main concern may be the decline of new energy subsidy policies in 2022.
On January 1, 2022, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice of the Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Finance on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022. The notice makes it clear that in principle, the subsidy standards for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
This means that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for domestic new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. Compared with 2021, in 2022, there is no subsidy for pure electric passenger cars with a mileage of less than 300 kilometers; the amount of subsidies for pure electric vehicles with a range of 300 kilometers to 400 kilometers is reduced by 3900 yuan; the subsidy amount of pure electric vehicles with a cruising range greater than 400 kilometers is reduced by 5400 yuan; and the subsidy amount of plug-in and hybrid models (including range extender models) is reduced by 2100 yuan.
The market may be worried that after the subsidy declines, new energy vehicle companies may pass on the reduced subsidies to consumers through price increases, or will hit consumers' enthusiasm for purchase, thereby slowing down the sales growth of new energy vehicles in 2022.
In fact, under the influence of the decline of subsidy policies, some new energy vehicle companies have opened a price increase model. On December 31, 2021, Tesla raised the price of the rear-wheel drive versions of the domestic model Model 3 and Model Y by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively, and Tesla China has confirmed that the price increase is related to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles.
On January 11, Xiaopeng Automobile announced the price of the latest subsidy for all models, the P7 series of Xiaopeng flagship sedan rose by 4300-5900 yuan, and the price after the latest subsidy was 224,200-40.99 million yuan; the new P5 series rose by 4800-5400 yuan, and the latest subsidy price was 162.7-22.93 million yuan.
On January 11, the interpretation of the new energy subsidy policy by the Federation of Automobile Associations responded to the concerns of the market to a certain extent. At the same time, the association has raised the sales forecast of new energy vehicles in 2022, releasing a positive signal to the market.
Since the beginning of the year, another reason for the decline of the new energy track may be the institutional adjustment, Zhao Wei, chief market analyst of Founder Securities, said that as soon as the ranking war of institutions ended in 2021, some institutions profited and closed some new energy and semiconductor positions, and excavated new investment lines for the new year's ranking.
2021 Public Offering Champion: Confident in the new energy megatrend
Since 2022, the continuous decline of the new energy track has caused some public funds that have bet heavily on the track to encounter "opening the door".
Among them, the biggest gap is the 2021 public fund "champion" Cui Chenlong, who manages Qianhai Open Source Utilities (005669) has reached 12.31% in the year, ranking "at the bottom" of similar funds during the year.
As of the end of the third quarter of last year, the top ten heavy stocks of Qianhai Open Source Public Utilities were mainly based on new energy, and Ewell Lithium Energy, BYD Shares, Ningde Times, and CGN New Energy were the second, third, seventh and eighth heavy stocks, respectively, all of which suffered a round of declines. In addition, its largest heavy stock, China Resources Power (0836. HK) fell even closer to 20% during the year.
For the retracement of the net value of the fund and the adjustment of the new energy sector, Cui Chenlong said that trying to calm the impact of this short-term fluctuation will try to look at the short-term fluctuation as objectively and rationally as possible. Having confidence in the new energy industry or the general trend, the fundamentals of the industry and the company are very healthy, and the future space is also huge.
Cui Chenlong believes that new energy is a strategic investment opportunity, not a tactical investment opportunity. From the perspective of the world to see the penetration rate of electric vehicles, is still at a single-digit level, the future space is very large, electric vehicles in the acceleration, intelligence, upgrade iteration speed is much faster than fuel vehicles, once the product force began to gradually surpass fuel vehicles, more and more consumers will make more rational choices.
Zhao Yi, the "champion" of the public fund in 2020, believes that in 2020, the new energy leader performed well, and all the "new energy +" companies in 2021 performed well, but this year, this situation is difficult to reproduce, with the continuous improvement of the company's valuation in the new energy industry chain, the stock price will rise will appear "ceiling", and ultimately it depends on the company's performance growth.