Lead
Lack of cores, not only in 2021.
Within the automotive industry,
It is generally believed that the lack of cores will span 2021,
The alleviation trend may occur in 2022.
A few days ago, according to data released by AutoForecast Solutions (hereinafter referred to as AFS), in 2021, due to chip shortages, the cumulative production reduction in the global automotive market is about 10.2 million units.
AFS expects that the global automotive industry may be smoother in 2022 than in 2021, but the global automobile production cut will still be reduced, and the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market in 2022 is expected to be 767,700 units, accounting for about 7.5% of the cumulative reduction in global automobile production last year.
The main reason for the decline in global automobile production is the lack of cores, and although the semiconductor industry continues to increase production, it still cannot make up for the shortage of chips in the global supply chain.
According to data, the global production of cars will be reduced by 11.31 million in 2021. The largest production cuts were in Europe, North America, and China, with production cuts of 3.349 million units, 3.412 million units, and 1.982 million units, respectively. Production in the rest of Asia excluding China decreased by 1.952 million units.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and president of China Automotive Pictorial, delivered a speech at the 2022 China Automotive Market Development Forecast Summit
But China's auto industry association is full of hope for 2022. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects domestic car sales to reach 27.5 million units in 2022, more than 1 million vehicles more than in 2021, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales were 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales were 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales were 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
Not only is the association confident, but dealers are also looking forward to the automotive market in 2022. According to a survey of dealers, more than half expect car sales to grow by about 5% in 2022.
From the perspective of the global market, AFS believes that although production will be reduced, the 770,000 vehicles that will be reduced are only a fraction of the 10.2 million vehicles cut in 2021, so it can be regarded as a recovery in the automotive industry. From the perspective of the domestic market, not only associations and dealers believe that they can achieve a positive year-on-year growth of 5%.
The main reason why they are so optimistic is that they believe that the impact of chips will gradually weaken in 2022.
Ashwani Gupta, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Nissan Motor, has said that it will take some time for production to be normalized, and it is expected to last at least until the first half of 2022.
BMW and Daimler and other car companies said that the chip shortage problem will continue until 2022, and BMW believes that the core shortage crisis is expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2022.
In the total semiconductor devices equipped by a car, MCU accounts for about 30%, and due to the high entry threshold and technical content, the hardest hit area of the automobile core in 2021 is the vehicle specification MCU. TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that the labor force of all fabs in Malaysia has recovered to 100%, so the tight supply of automotive chips is expected to ease by the second half of 2022.
But it is still Volkswagen that has sung again, which told the automotive industry in advance in 2020 that it will face a lack of cores and become a whistleblower. This time, Volkswagen also said that the supply situation is expected to ease slightly in 2022, but the first half of the year is still very unstable, and Volkswagen expects its sales volume in 2022 to be even smaller than in 2021.
U.S. financial services firm Wells Fargo said in a recent customer report that the consensus on a 10 percent increase in chip demand in the auto industry in 2022 is underestimated and should be around 15 percent.
Intel CEO Gel singer and AMD CTO Peppermaster also believe that the chip industry may eventually achieve a balance between supply and demand in 2023, when the lack of cores will end.