The U.S. "chip war" is doomed to lose, and the loss of 400 billion yuan may accelerate China's chip independence
In the current protracted contest of technological powers, the "chip war" launched by the United States is considered a heavy blow to contain China's development in this strategic industry. This "chip war" not only brings a heavy economic cost to the United States itself, but in the long run, it may backfire, accelerating China's independent innovation in the field of chips, which in turn threatens the leading position of the United States in this field.
The main purpose of the "chip war" launched by the United States is to maintain its dominant position in the chip industry while containing China's development in this critical area. To this end, the U.S. government has imposed a series of technology blockades and export controls on China, restricting China's access to advanced chips and related technologies. The background of this "chip war" is that China has made great strides in the field of chips in recent years, and some fields have even begun to catch up with or even surpass the United States, which makes the United States feel an unprecedented threat.
This "chip war" has also brought heavy economic costs to the United States itself. It is estimated that U.S. companies could lose up to $400 billion in revenue in the Chinese market. That's a huge amount of money enough to impact the growth and employment of U.S. businesses. This approach may also jeopardize the development of the chip industry in the United States, because American chip companies account for a high proportion of revenue in the Chinese market, and if they are forced to withdraw, they will be hit hard.
More importantly, in the long run, this "chip war" is destined to lose, and it may backfire, accelerating China's independent innovation in the chip field, which in turn threatens the leading position of the United States in this field. Many parties have pointed out that the reasons why this "chip war" is destined to lose include:
China is confident that it will circumvent U.S. restrictions through independent innovation. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of the chip industry and has invested a lot of resources to support the independent research and development of local enterprises. As China's investment in this area continues to increase, Chinese companies are expected to achieve major breakthroughs in the coming years and move away from dependence on foreign technology.
Multinational chip companies are reluctant to give up on China, an important market. China is the world's largest consumer of chips, and abandoning this market will bring huge losses to them. Even if the U.S. imposes export controls, these companies have an incentive to find other ways to continue doing business in China.
China is stepping up its efforts to reduce its dependence on Western, especially American, technology. In recent years, China has made great strides in cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and quantum computing, which will help reduce the demand for foreign chips. China is also stepping up efforts to develop indigenous alternative technologies to circumvent U.S. restrictions.
The U.S. approach could accelerate China's technological independence. In the face of the US blockade, China will have to increase its independent innovation, which is expected to achieve breakthroughs in key technology areas such as chips in the next few years. Once China becomes independent in these areas, the U.S. technological blockade will lose its meaning.
Although the "chip war" launched by the United States may bring some pressure to China in the short term, in the long run, it is destined to lose, not only bringing heavy economic losses to the United States itself, but also may be counterproductive, accelerating China's independent innovation in the field of chips, which in turn threatens the leading position of the United States in this field. Far from helping to maintain its dominant position in the chip industry, the U.S. approach could accelerate its decline in this area.