The pressure of "lack of core" still exists, and volkswagen's transformation in China has entered a "painful period"

The chip shortage is still affecting the global auto market, but volkswagen group has plans to increase production next year.

According to foreign media reports, Daniela Cavallo, chairman of the trade union at the Wolfsburg plant headquartered by the Volkswagen Group (hereinafter referred to as the "Volkswagen Group"), recently revealed that in 2022, Volkswagen's car production at its main plant in Wolfsburg is expected to increase by about 43%. Although the expected production of vehicles at Volkswagen's headquarters plant will increase significantly compared to 2021, it will still be affected by the shortage of semiconductors.

The problem of "missing cores" has not been alleviated

It is reported that volkswagen group expects to produce about 400,000 vehicles at its headquarters plant in Wolfsburg this year, below Daniela Cavallo's previously mentioned initial target of 1 million vehicles.

According to Cavallo, although the situation is expected to improve in 2022 and the supply of chips will ease, factories will still feel the impact of the chip shortage. The Volkswagen Group had expected the supply situation to remain very volatile in the first half of next year. "Plans for next year's car production at the Wolfsburg headquarters plant have not yet been finalized, but the plant is currently expected to produce about 570,000 vehicles in 2022, an increase of nearly 43 percent from this year," Cavallo said. Of course, there are still risks. ”

The news that Volkswagen Group may increase production has also attracted much attention in the industry. The main problem is that the lack of core has seriously affected the global car market, Toyota and other car companies are announcing production reduction plans, while the Volkswagen Group announced to increase production, what is the reason and purpose of such a layout? Does this mean that the Volkswagen Group has clear measures to deal with the lack of cores and is no longer affected by the lack of cores?

On December 16, germany's "Manager Magazine" reported that because of the chip shortage, volkswagen group's car production this year is expected to be only 9 million units, informed sources revealed that due to the continued semiconductor supply problems, Volkswagen expects less car production in 2022 than this year, and the company is preparing for the current chip shortage may last at least until the beginning of 2023.

In the future strategy announced by the Volkswagen Group, the annual production target for 2022 is 10 million vehicles, and in 2023 it is about 11 million vehicles, but there are internal sources that in the worst case, the production of cars in 2022 can only reach 8 million units. In addition, the group's top management expects that the chip crisis may worsen the situation, especially the core brand Volkswagen passenger cars and subsidiary Skoda. According to media reports, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Disney recently spoke with Bosch on the chip issue, but did not achieve the desired results. It is reported that Bosch is temporarily unable to meet the number of chip orders of volkswagen, and hopes that volkswagen can ensure that the order volume in the near future is about 30% less than the original plan.

It is not difficult to find that the Volkswagen Group has not gotten rid of the chip crisis, for which auto analyst Ren Wanfu told the "China Times" reporter: "The production capacity of the Volkswagen Group's Wolfsburg plant is about 800,000 vehicles per year, and in 2021, about 400,000 vehicles are produced, and the capacity utilization rate is about 50%; in 2022, it will increase by 43%, planned production will be about 572,000 vehicles, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 72%. Volkswagen's Wolfsburg plant has a relatively low capacity utilization rate under the impact of the epidemic and chips, so it is normal to increase the capacity utilization rate to reduce losses after partially solving the problem of chips. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is still repeated, and there is still uncertainty about whether the current plan of the Volkswagen Group can be realized. ”

The transformation in China requires a short period of confusion

In the era of electric digital transformation, the pressure is even greater for the representatives of traditional car companies such as Volkswagen Group. According to the third quarter of 2021 financial report released by Volkswagen Group, the company's revenue for the quarter was 56.93 billion euros, down 4.1% year-on-year, the operating profit was 2.596 billion euros, down 18.44% year-on-year, and the operating profit margin fell from 5.4% last year to 4.9%. The Volkswagen Group's global deliveries of 1.97 million units in the third quarter, down 24% year-on-year, and a total of 2.55 million vehicles delivered in the Chinese market in the first three quarters, down 4.1% year-on-year.

In December, the Volkswagen Group also began a series of personnel adjustments. On December 9, Volkswagen's Supervisory Board announced the re-election of GROUP CEO Herbert Diess, with The CEO of Volkswagen Group China replaced by Brad. Although Dies is still re-elected, there is a huge pressure behind this. The price of Dis's re-election was "weakening his voice", and his focus shifted to the group business. Volkswagen brand CEO Bered has joined the board of directors to take over the management of volkswagen, the core business.

Returning to the Chinese market, although the specific departure time and next work arrangement of the current Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan have not yet been announced, Feng Sihan's departure has also been speculated by the industry that Volkswagen's poor performance in China is directly related to the slow electrification transformation.

Public data shows that in the first 11 months of this year, faw-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen, Volkswagen's two major joint ventures in China, sold about 2.93 million vehicles, down about 10% year-on-year. In 2020, Volkswagen's sales in China fell to 3.85 million units, down 9.1% in the same period and outperforming the market by 6.8%.

For the performance of Volkswagen China, Shen Meng, executive director of Chanson Capital, once said frankly: "On the one hand, the impact of the headquarters on the strategy of the Chinese region, on the other hand, the changes in the Chinese market environment, and as the head of the Chinese region of a multinational enterprise, its terms of reference depend on the space given by the headquarters, not completely in accordance with their own wishes, coupled with the Chinese passenger car market in recent years, there are great ups and downs, but also superimposed on the influence of new energy and local brands." ”

After entering September, the sales of the ID.series improved and began to break through the threshold of 10,000 yuan, with more than 1,000 ID.3 units sold after its launch on October 22, compared with 2,646 units in November, the first full sales month. The delivery of the entire ID. series of electric vehicles rose from 3,415 units in June to 14,167 units in November, with cumulative sales of about 55,000 units. Compared with the sales volume of the ID.series in the European market in the first three quarters of this year, the sales volume of the ID.series in the first three quarters of this year has exceeded 220,000 vehicles, and the performance of the ID.series in China is indeed somewhat insufficient, but this does not mean that the Volkswagen Group does not have the strength to transform.

Industry insiders told the "China Times" reporter: "China has now become the world's largest market for new energy vehicles, with many model choices and a long development cycle, and has become a fertile ground for all brands to power electric." At the same time, the rise of domestic brands is constantly eroding the market share of joint venture brands. In the automotive industry, no one will doubt the financial and technical strength of the Volkswagen Group, but it is never easy to 'turn around', not only to deal with uncertainties, such as huge investment in research and development and production and equal risks, but also to summarize and reflect on their experience and shortcomings at each key stage of development. To give the Volkswagen Group time, car companies like the Volkswagen Group are the backbone of the tide of automobile electrification, they have a huge number of core technologies and sales networks all over the world, and after a short period of confusion, they may burst out of great energy. ”

Responsible Editor: Li Yan'an Editor-in-Chief: Yu Jianping