Tesla and Weilai have only been 27 years from their inception, but in China's high-end pure electric vehicle market, they have "knocked down" Mercedes-Benz and BMW, two century-old teachers.
On January 1, NIO routinely announced its 2021 report card, with a cumulative delivery of 91,429 vehicles throughout the year.
Tesla China did not announce specific sales, but from the previous data, it can be estimated that its conservative sales of 300,000 yuan + models in 2021 should exceed 100,000 vehicles.
The total sales of the two high-end pure electric vehicle models are at least about 200,000 vehicles, which is not much, which is about 7 times the sales of Mercedes-Benz and BMW pure electric vehicle models in the Chinese market in 2021.
Obviously, the rapid expansion of the two "upstart" forces has caused great losses to the two "Shoucheng" big men of Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the high-end pure electric vehicle market, and has also given decision-makers in Stuttgart and Munich a new understanding of the cruelty of China's high-end electric vehicle market.
In 2022, Mercedes-Benz will have five pure electric models on sale in China, such as EQA, EQB, EQC, EQE, and EQS, while BMW will hold the iX3 and i3 (Note: This i3 is a pure electric version of the 3 series long wheelbase, rather than the previous "guinea pig" product i3), i4, and iX, at least 4 pure electric models on sale.
The purpose of the two is very clear, after the formation of a matrix, systematic product lineup, in 2022 to play a beautiful turnaround battle in China's high-end pure electric vehicle market.
In a word, the pure electric vehicle business of Mercedes-Benz and BMW will usher in a "backwater war" in the Chinese market in 2022.
From the perspective of 20% new energy penetration rate in recent months, Mercedes-Benz and BMW electric vehicles need to reach at least 150,000 vehicles per year (including PHEV with a low proportion of sales) to catch up with their peers.
This article will attempt to answer these questions?
1. Why are Mercedes-Benz and BMW luxury fuel vehicle market invincible, but the high-end pure electric market (China) is being hammered?
2. Where is the inflection point of the pure electric business of Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the Chinese market?
3. How to disassemble the qualified line with annual sales of 150,000 vehicles?
First, Mercedes-Benz, BMW traditional fuel vehicles 100 points, pure electric vehicles are currently failing in the Chinese market
In the traditional fuel vehicle market, the strength of Mercedes-Benz and BMW's market discourse power is self-evident.
From the perspective of the global market, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are the only luxury brands with annual sales exceeding the 2 million mark, and it is difficult for a third brand to achieve this achievement in the foreseeable future.
From the perspective of China, the world's largest single market, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have also comprehensively surpassed the Audi brand that entered the Chinese market earlier and had a weaker premium ability (cheaper) last year, which is also the status of the industry's big brother.
The advantage of the boss of the luxury automotive industry is "rich and willful". For example, in 2020, Mercedes-Benz's R&D investment in passenger cars and light commercial vehicles reached 7.2 billion euros (at the then exchange rate of more than 55 billion euros), bmw invested nearly 5.7 billion euros in research and development (at the then exchange rate of more than 44 billion), crushing the luxury brands used.
The technical advantages brought by such an industry-leading R&D investment, coupled with the most diversified product lineup, the blessing of AMG/M performance vehicles... So that Mercedes-Benz, BMW can build a moat, and even the "tasteless" century-old brand can also be advertised, bringing deep brand barriers to the brand.
In this way, Mercedes-Benz and BMW also blocked the possibility of all other market participants wanting to overtake on the traditional luxury fuel vehicle track.
But to the pure electric vehicle track, it is a different situation, Mercedes-Benz, BMW did not replicate the strength of the traditional fuel vehicle market, the entire 2021 Mercedes-Benz, BMW pure electric vehicle sales in China is only a negligible 30,000 vehicles.
Weilai and Tesla, who drank the soup, had more than 200,000 vehicles, and by the way, they did the work that should have belonged to Mercedes-Benz and BMW, and completed the preliminary education work of China's 300,000 yuan + high-end pure electric vehicle market.
The phenomenon of two-level differentiation between Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Weilai and Tesla in China's high-end electric vehicle market also reflects the charm of the automotive industry from the side, that is, "if you can't quickly establish market advantages in an outlet track, even if you are a strong brand, many seemingly reasonable and coherent actions will be deformed." On the contrary, it can obtain a double harvest of the market and the brand."
In a word, in the Chinese market, slow transformation will have to fall into a passive situation. Even if there is no Weilai and Tesla, there will be other new power brands that have seized the opportunity in advance to "hammer" Mercedes-Benz and BMW in China's high-end pure electric vehicle market.
As for the pure product level problems, such as the main volume of pure electric vehicle models are "oil to electricity", the overall mileage is short, the styling is not fashionable enough, etc., to some extent, these can also be regarded as Mercedes-Benz, BMW in the "self-destruction of the Great Wall".
Second, Mercedes-Benz, BMW power entry-level pure electric market, 2022 or there is a performance inflection point
Of course, it needs to be clear that the above mention of Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the high-end pure electric vehicle market weak situation. At present, it is limited to the Chinese market, which is more tolerant and acceptable to new power brands, and the product line is not perfect (the speed of new product laying is slower than in Western Europe).
In the developed markets of Western Europe with more mature consumer concepts and "deep-rooted" brand recognition (including 11 countries such as Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands and Switzerland), bmw and Mercedes-Benz pure electric vehicle market performance is acceptable, with sales in the fourth quarter reaching 8,233 vehicles (i3 is 3693 units, Note: this is the "old" i3), 7,151 vehicles (EQA is 4,171 two), almost Tesla's sales in these markets 35%-40% of the level.
This means that Mercedes-Benz and BMW, which have reached the passing line, have at least a battle in the high-end pure electric market in Western Europe.
The luxury car Old Three Audi performed better than the two big brothers, reaching 10,759 units, of which the ID.4 e-tron model Q4 e-tron created by the Volkswagen Group MEB pure electric hair platform reached the level of 5,668 units.
In this way, a simple conclusion can be drawn: in the case of a short-term market situation that is difficult to open, entry-level models are the most effective means of increasing sales.
Of course, this is also what Mercedes-Benz and BMW are doing.
For example, BMW will launch a medium-sized pure electric sedan i3 at the Beijing Auto Show as soon as this year, according to the pricing logic of iX3 "oil and electricity at the same price", this "oil to electricity" model based on the 3 series long wheelbase sedan is expected to start at 300,000-320,000 yuan, slightly lower than the recent hit Weilai ET5.
Mercedes-Benz, EQA, EQB single motor entry-level version is also expected to be listed around this year's Beijing Auto Show, of which the EQA 260 entry-level version is expected to be priced as low as about 320,000.
From our point of view, the inflection point of Mercedes-Benz and BMW's pure electric vehicle business in China will most likely appear after the second quarter of this year.
There are probably two reasons, on the one hand, the two technology flagships of EQS and iX that have entered the climbing period will improve the inherent impression of pure electric vehicles of the two brands in the eyes of consumers to a certain extent, and at the same time, with the update of the new product rhythm, the two brands have a number of main models in the second quarter. On the other hand, the penetration rate of new energy in the entire market in the second quarter of this year is expected to increase significantly.
In addition, Mercedes-Benz and BMW may make adjustments in the terminal price strategy at the beginning of the year, especially mercedes-Benz, which has a very exaggerated premium compared to the pricing of the Western European market, and the subsequent terminal price of its entry-level model EQA 260 may even fall into the 270,000 range or even lower, after all, the current EQC has made a sample for it (the terminal price is about 130,000 lower than the guide price).
Third, 150,000 vehicles need to be realized in stages, and BMW's overall performance is better than Mercedes-Benz
Since it comes to the performance inflection point, what standards do Mercedes-Benz and BMW need to meet to be qualified?
As mentioned at the beginning, in recent months, the industry's new energy penetration rate has continuously exceeded 20 percentage points (the follow-up will be higher), referring to the annual sales scale of Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the Chinese market of about 800,000 vehicles, we believe that Mercedes-Benz and BMW electric vehicles (pure electric, plug-in hybrid as a supplement) at least 150,000 are qualified, in order to be equal to the average level of the domestic passenger car market.
In addition, according to Wang Xing's statement that "the new forces need to cross three hurdles", we believe that the target value of 150,000 vehicles for Mercedes-Benz and BMW is also suitable for completion in stages.
According to the simple understanding, the expected target value of 150,000 vehicles can be broken down into passing (40%), good (80%), and excellent (120%), corresponding to 60,000 vehicles, 120,000 vehicles, and 180,000 vehicles, respectively, that is, the monthly sales of 5,000 vehicles, 10,000 vehicles, and 15,000 vehicles.
At present, BMW's overall performance is significantly better than Mercedes-Benz, and has basically completed 40% of the "passing value", its electric vehicle (BEV + PHEV) compulsory insurance in January to November 2021 has reached 43,014 vehicles, November has exceeded the 5,000 vehicle mark in a single month, and the sales of the main model iX3 are already infinitely close to the Similar Price Point of Weilai EC6. Another major model, the 5 Series long wheelbase plug-in hybrid, is BMW's biggest competitive advantage over its rivals, and the car contributes 20,000+ units to BMW's sales.
In Terms of Mercedes-Benz, the number of insurance for electric vehicles (BEV+PHEV) from January to November is only 14,204, an average of only about 1,300 vehicles per month, and EQC monthly sales are even less than one-third of the iX3. Why is the difference between the "oil to electricity" version of the X3 and GLC L equally divided into autumn colors?
To some extent, this is also due to the Mercedes-Benz EQC products, pricing strategy "mistakes", the price of this car and the German market is basically the same (EQC Germany 66,000 euros starting price, iX3 starting price of 67,000 euros, but in the Chinese market after the "official reduction" iX3 guidance price is nearly 100,000 yuan cheaper than EQC), in addition to the chinese consumers more sensitive endurance needs have not been adjusted is also EQC more serious product strategy "mistakes".
In addition, from the pricing logic of the recent EQA and EQB launches, it is still the strategy of using EQC, and even the price of compact EQB has exceeded that of the BMW iX3 of the mid-size SUV level. If the subsequent single motor version is still in accordance with such a pricing logic, even if there is a higher terminal discount to do the bottom, the prospects of Mercedes-Benz in the domestic market are difficult to be optimistic.
epilogue:
Since officially entering the high-end pure electric vehicle market in 2020, the sales performance of Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the past two years is really difficult to match the identity of their luxury car giants.
However, after the opening of a new round of product cycles, the two brands should theoretically have some actions in 2022.
However, if 4-5 pure electric products in 2022 are sold in the Chinese market at the same time, there is no sign of any qualitative change, which means that Mercedes-Benz and BMW will face a great strategic crisis.
With the continuous improvement of new energy penetration in the entire high-end automobile market in the future, the two brands will lose a large number of customers that originally belonged to them. If this market situation cannot be opened up in the future, it may even mean that the "luxury situation" of the two German giants in the Chinese market will no longer exist in the future.