The HKA expects to sell 2.05 million passenger cars in December

A few days ago, the Association released the December car market sales forecast data, it is reported that the narrow passenger car retail sales in December are expected to be 2.050 million units, down 10.4% year-on-year. Full-year 2021 retail sales are expected to reach 20.09 million units, up 4.1% year-on-year.

In November, the market was affected by both chips and the epidemic

Although the supply side of the auto market continued to improve in November, there is still a large gap relative to market demand, and the terminal market is still in a structural state of shortage. At the same time, the rise of the epidemic in many places has brought more impacts to the consumer side than we previously expected. In November, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars of the Association completed 1.816 million units, down 12.7% year-on-year and 6.0% from October. The new energy market continued to be hot, mainly driven by independent and new power brands, retail sales reached 378,000 units in November, a sharp increase of 122.3% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 20.8%.

The auto market faced more uncertainty in December

At the end of the year, the supply side continued to improve, and the dealer side also actively prepared for the upcoming sales season of the previous year. However, in early December, a new round of local epidemics appeared, and many places issued notices to advocate the local New Year, and the obstruction of population flow may further affect sales during the Spring Festival peak season. In the new energy market, the subsidy is clearly reduced by 30% by the beginning of next year, so it is expected that there will be no more obvious early sales compared with previous years. Most of the existing consumption promotion policies expire before the end of the year, and next year will continue the current support. Under the intertwining of multiple factors, the market is not expected to have a significant tail effect in December.

1. Manufacturer sales trends

The results of terminal price monitoring show that the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in mid-December was about 11.0%, which remained stable compared with the end of the previous month and remained at a high level. Among them, luxury and joint venture brands have been alleviated due to supply problems, and market prices have begun to fall. According to the December retail target survey, more than 80% of the manufacturers in the overall market still have double-digit negative year-on-year growth, and the preliminary estimate is that the narrow passenger car retail market this month is about 2.050 million units, down about 10.4% year-on-year.

2. Weekly trend calculation

The average daily growth rate of the first, second and third weeks of retail sales of major manufacturers was -17%, -7%, -8% respectively, a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10%, mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic in various places, and the improvement of the supply side was relatively limited. The market gradually recovered in the fourth week and is expected to be around -8% year-on-year. The strength of the impulse at the end of the fifth week will be less than in previous years, and the average daily sales volume is expected to be -14% year-on-year. It is estimated that retail sales in December will reach 2.05 million units.

3. Multiple factors bring uncertainty

From January to November this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.7% year-on-year, of which the automobile category increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the shortage of supply was highlighted. From January to November, the national service industry production index increased by 14.0% year-on-year, an average growth of 6.0% in two years, the real economy recovered steadily, and the economy stabilized at the end of the year, but with the approaching of the Winter Olympics and statutory holidays, the epidemic prevention and control was tightened, the population flow was blocked and was not conducive to the release of peak season demand, and the car market at the end of the year faced greater uncertainty. At the end of the year, the promotion fee policy in various regions will have a slight pull on the market before the expiration, and next year's policy will also continue the current support, such as the recent relaxation of the new energy index application conditions in Shenzhen, guangzhou to increase the energy-saving vehicle indicators, etc., so it is expected that there will be no more obvious early sales at the end of this year compared with previous years. Chip supply is still continuing to improve, production and wholesale sales have resumed significantly, and the restrictions on the car market have gradually eased. According to the latest survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November was 1.35, up 4.7% month-on-month, and dealers actively prepared goods in response to the spring festival sales season, and the inventory level continued to rise. The new energy vehicle market continues to be hot, facing a 30% decline in new energy subsidies at the beginning of next year, most car companies choose insurance promotions at the end of the year, and it is expected that the new energy market will reach a new high in December. (Messages and data from the Association)

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