Xing Yanjun said
Lead
In 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic and other factors, China's new energy vehicle sales still maintained a positive growth trend; in 2021, with the successive launch of new models by various car companies, the new energy vehicle consumer market is still showing a hot trend.
Source: Guotai Junan
1 Global automotive revolution, resonance at home and abroad to meet the future of electrification
A comprehensive electrification transformation of the global automotive industry
New energy vehicles (BEV+PHEV) have been available before 2010, and global sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly from 125,000 units in 2012 to 3.24 million units in 2020, and are expected to break through to more than 6 million units in 2021. From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2012 was only 0.2%, and the penetration rate in 2020 reached 4.2%. According to EV Sales statistics, from January to September 2021, global sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.3 million units, with a cumulative penetration rate of 7%, of which the monthly sales in September reached 685,000 units, and the monthly penetration rate reached 10.2%, breaking through double digits for the first time.
China's market: The rise of consumption, multi-brand resonance has brought about a rapid increase in penetration
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow at a high rate. In 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic and other factors, China's new energy vehicle sales still maintained a positive growth trend; in 2021, with the successive launch of new models by various car companies, the new energy vehicle consumer market is still showing a hot trend. From January to October 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 2.566 million units, an increase of 177% year-on-year; in terms of penetration rate, the cumulative penetration rate from January to October reached 12.14%, a significant increase over the level of the whole year of 2020; of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in October exceeded 16%.
European market: Carbon emission standards for vehicles are becoming stricter, and the EU will achieve zero emissions by 2035
The European Union implements the world's strictest carbon emissions standards. According to the regulations adopted by the European Union in 2019, the average carbon emissions of 95% of new cars sold within the EU in 2020 must be 95g/km, and by 2021, the average carbon emissions of 100% of new cars will need to meet this requirement, and vehicles that exceed the carbon emission standard will be fined 95 euros/g, while according to the latest emission data in 2020, only 21% of the passenger cars registered in the EU in 2020 will meet the standard carbon emission standards. In July 2021, the European Union again passed the Fit For 55 act, proposing that carbon emission standards from 2030 will be reduced by 55% from 2021 (the original target is 37.5%), and 100% from 2035, that is, zero emissions from vehicles will be achieved from 2035, and a comprehensive transformation of vehicle electrification will be achieved.
U.S. market: Carbon emissions + points policy is becoming stricter, biden policy warming up is good for new energy
The overall development of new energy vehicles in the US market is relatively slow, and sales in 2021 will usher in rapid growth. Different from the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and China, the overall growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in the United States is slower, with sales of only 330,000 vehicles in 2020, with a penetration rate of 2.3%; in 2021, the overall sales volume has accelerated, with cumulative sales reaching 435,000 vehicles in the first three quarters, with a penetration rate of 3.6%, and sales are expected to break through to 600,000 units throughout the year.
The electrification process of the North American market of domestic car companies and overseas car companies is expected to accelerate. The United States domestic car companies to accelerate the electrification process, Ford plans to achieve 40% electrification rate in 2030, GM in 2035 to achieve zero emissions of light vehicles, the two major car companies in the field of electrification before 2025 investment of up to 30-40 billion yuan, while respectively with SKI and LG to establish a battery joint venture to lay out battery production. On the other hand, European, Japanese and Korean car companies have also increased investment in the US market, Volkswagen plans to sell half of the cars sold in the United States in 2030 are all-electric models, Honda's North American electrification rate in 2040 will reach 100%, and Hyundai will invest $7.4 billion in the US market before 2025 to lay out the electrification transformation.
2 China's battery industry chain is leading the world, and the overall competitive pattern is concentrated
Under the trend of automobile electrification, the installed capacity of global power batteries is rising rapidly. Benefiting from the rapid advancement of vehicle electrification in The Chinese and European markets, global new energy vehicle sales have risen rapidly since 2016, driven by the rapid increase in the installed capacity of power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries. In the first three quarters of 2021, the installed capacity of global power batteries reached 195.4GWH, an increase of 131% year-on-year; and the corresponding installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 92GWH, an increase of 169% year-on-year, exceeding the global average growth rate and accounting for nearly half of the world's battery installed capacity.
Chinese companies came later, and cataline times ranked first in the global power battery shipment list. CATL has occupied the top position in the global power battery shipment list for many years, its global market share reached 24% in 2020, and in 2021, the global market share of the company benefiting from overseas customers increased steadily, and the global market share reached 31.2% in the first three quarters, further opening the gap with the latter enterprises. Overall, the world's top ten power battery companies Chinese companies occupy five seats, including Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, AVIC Lithium Battery, Envision Energy, etc.; the remaining five power battery companies are distributed in Japan and South Korea, once again reflecting the strong market position of China, Japan and South Korea in the field of lithium batteries.
The battery industry has accelerated the reshuffle, and the concentration of the industry has been continuously improved. In 2016, there were more than 300 domestic power battery companies, and by the first nine months of 2021, a total of 54 power battery companies in China's new energy vehicle market had achieved loading and matching, further reducing the number of 10 companies compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of industry concentration, since 2017, the total market share of the top ten enterprises in China's power battery installed capacity has steadily increased, and the cumulative installed capacity of the top 3, top 5 and top 10 enterprises in the first three quarters of 2021 has accounted for 73.0%, 83.6% and 91.7% respectively. Similar to the domestic market, the global power battery installed capacity also shows a trend of increasing concentration, and the total market share of CR10 exceeds 90%.
Cathode material: lithium iron phosphate has picked up, and the industry has entered a new round of expansion cycle
Shipments of cathode materials have increased steadily, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate shipments has increased significantly. Benefiting from the good demand for downstream power batteries, the shipment of cathode materials in the first half of 2021 reached 475,000 tons. Among them, the lithium iron phosphate cathode benefited from the increase in downstream installed capacity, and the overall proportion increased to 37%; the shipment of ternary cathode materials reached 190,000 tons, accounting for 40%, and power battery materials are still the main contribution.
Ronbay Technology is leading in three elements, and German nano lithium iron phosphate is leading. Although from the perspective of the overall market competition pattern, the competition pattern of cathode materials is relatively dispersed; subdividing the field of lithium iron phosphate and ternary cathode, we can see that Ronbay Technology, Bamo Technology, Dangsheng Technology, Long-term Lithium and Zhenhua New Material are in a leading position at the ternary cathode, and Defang Nami, Hunan Yuneng, Hubei Wanrun, and Longpan Technology (formerly Bertree lithium iron phosphate assets) are in the leading position of lithium iron phosphate. We believe that with the continuous embodiment of the overall scale advantage of the industry and the promotion of the trend of ternary high nickelization, the overall market concentration in the field of ternary or lithium iron phosphate is expected to be further improved.
Anode materials: Power rationing affects graphitization capacity, benefiting enterprises with a high proportion of self-production
Artificial graphite still accounts for the main share of anode materials. In the first half of 2021, the shipment of anode materials reached 332,000 tons, of which artificial graphite shipments accounted for 85%, still occupying the main market share.
Different from the production of natural graphite, artificial graphite raw materials are mainly needle coke, petroleum coke and other products, in the process of processing into a finished product need to go through a graphitization process, that is, thermal activation of thermodynamic unstable carbon atoms from the chaotic layer structure to the graphite crystal structure of the orderly transformation, at present, the graphitization processing cost accounts for 50% of the cost of artificial graphite. In order to further reduce production costs, artificial graphite enterprises such as Shanshan Shares, Beiterui, Kaijin Energy, Putailai, Zhongke Electric, Xiangfenghua, Andrui have reduced the outsourcing processing part and improved profitability by building or acquiring graphitization capacity.
Graphitization processing fees have risen significantly, and leading enterprises may benefit. In 2021, especially since the third quarter, graphitization has been shut down due to the limited electricity impact of some production capacity of high-energy-consuming enterprises, and the overall processing fee has continued to rise, and the average graphitization processing fee has reached about 25,000 yuan / ton, which is close to doubling compared with the 20-year low. We believe that in the short term, the shortage of graphitization will continue, and Putailai (Jiangxi Zichen) is expected to benefit from its high graphitization self-supply ratio, while the rest of the artificial graphite enterprises that enjoy the increase in the graphitization self-supply ratio will also further benefit.
Diaphragm: Wet method still occupies a major position, and second-tier enterprises are welcoming good opportunities for development
Enjie shares lead the industry, and the proportion of second-tier enterprises is expected to increase under the background of tight supply and demand pattern. From the perspective of shipments in the first three quarters of 2021, the shipment volume of Enjie shares (including Suzhou Jieli and Chongqing Niumi) accounted for 39%, continuing to rank first in the industry, and Xingyuan Material and Sinoma Technology (including Hunan Zhongli) ranked second and third. In addition, Hebei Jinli, Cangzhou Pearl and other established diaphragm enterprises are also on the list. We believe that under the background of the current tight overall production capacity of diaphragms, the overall capacity utilization rate of some established enterprises is expected to increase significantly, and the operating situation will usher in the double catalysis of volume and price rise.
Electrolyte: The price of raw materials has risen significantly, and the advantages of integrated layout are prominent
The price of raw materials such as lithium salts and additives has increased significantly, and the advantages of the integrated layout of the industrial chain have been highlighted. In addition to the rise in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate over the past 21 years, the price of electrolyte additives represented by VC has also risen sharply, affected by the rapid increase in the cost of electrolyte, and mainstream enterprises have transmitted upward pressure on costs through terminal price increases, while enterprises that have taken the lead in laying out the upstream of the industrial chain have benefited. Overall, Tianci Materials benefited most obviously by its layout in the field of lithium hexafluorophosphate and additives, the gross profit margin level of electrolyte significantly improved in the first half of 2021, Xinzhubang and Shanshan shares were laid out in other links, and Jiangsu Guotai reduced the impact of lithium hexafluorophosphate price fluctuations through long orders.
3 Looking forward to 2022: battery price increases, large cylindrical batteries, tight supply and demand links
It is expected that the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach the level of 10 million units in 2022. We believe that with the joint efforts of the Chinese, European and North American markets, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 10 million in 2022, of which the Chinese market is expected to continue to occupy about half of the global market share with the driving force of consumption rise, and the US market is expected to gradually climb with the new policy to stimulate the overall market.
Affected by the rise in raw material prices, the cost of power batteries has risen significantly. Since 2021, the downstream demand for new energy vehicles has continued to improve, the demand for battery materials has risen significantly, and the serious mismatch between supply and demand structure has been partially alleviated, affected by the price of core lithium battery materials. Specifically, PVDF, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium carbonate and other products rose in the front, affected by this cathode material, electrolyte two major battery direct material prices rose sharply. According to our calculations, taking the current mainstream lithium iron phosphate and ternary 523 monocrystalline cells as an example, represented by four time nodes on March 31, 2021, June 30, 2021 and September 30, 2021, the cost increased by about 15%, 20% and 40% respectively compared with the beginning of the year.
Lithium iron phosphate: The installed capacity is picking up significantly, and the energy storage market has opened up new growth space
The installed capacity and proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries show an upward trend. Affected by the decline of domestic new energy vehicle subsidy policies, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries in 2020 will be 63.64GWh, an increase of 2% over the same period. Since 2017, the high energy density-oriented subsidy policy has impacted the demand for lithium iron phosphate battery industry. However, at present, new energy vehicles are driven by policies to markets, and the performance advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are highlighted. In 2020, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 24.4GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 44.8GWH, an increase of 332% year-on-year, accounting for 48.7% of the total installed capacity, and the monthly installed capacity in September has reached 57.8%.
Energy storage can be applied to grid transmission and distribution and auxiliary services, renewable energy grid connection, distributed and microgrids, and user-side parts. Especially in the context of "carbon neutrality", the installed capacity of new energy sources and the penetration rate of power generation continue to increase, forcing the demand for energy storage to increase; in the traditional power system, the power output curve is relatively stable, and due to the obvious volatility of renewable energy power generation, the increase in penetration rate has a new test for the load of the power grid. In this context, the allocation of energy storage will effectively smooth the output of renewable energy, absorb excess electricity, reduce "curtailment of wind and light", and instant grid connection.
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[Xing Yanjun.]
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