Introduction: Darkness Chen Cang, continue to deeply bind Daimler, holding the right to speak of Mercedes-Benz, may be the only life-saving straw in the hands of BAIC Group.
【Executive Summary】
· Two Chinese auto companies became the top two shareholders of the world's largest luxury car manufacturer;
· Beijing Benz is different from BMW Brilliance, and participation will reduce the impact of future stock ratio changes;
· BAIC Group has two vehicle listed companies in mainland China and Hong Kong, and Mercedes-Benz is involved;
· The mixed ownership reform of the automobile industry continues to advance, and Jibeidai may be put on the agenda;
· After the change of leadership in Germany, in any case, deepening the connection at the capital level is also the last insurance.
Three years ago, a Chinese private car company became the largest shareholder of Mercedes-Benz, one of the world's three largest luxury brands; three years later, who would have thought that a state-owned car group would suddenly announce, "I am the largest shareholder of daimler group."
Interestingly, as we all know, for these century-old industrial enterprises and economic pillar industries in Europe, the EU is very cautious about Chinese investment or mergers and acquisitions, and even does not hesitate to introduce legislation to prevent the brutal expansion of capital.
Therefore, the BAIC Group, which secretly chen cang two years ago and became Daimler's largest shareholder with a few percentage points advantage, still makes people admire its low-key means. However, under the background of the industry environment of relaxing the restrictions on the equity ratio of the automobile industry, and under the conditions of vigorously developing independent brands, this wave of operations of BAIC is worth pondering.
1 Low-key helplessness
In 2018, Li Shufu and Geely Group spent US$9 billion to invest in the Daimler Group and became the largest single shareholder of the Daimler Group with 9.69% of the shares. At that time, this caused a huge sensation in the world automotive industry and international business. Even if Daimler's stock price was not so beautiful later, Li Shufu and Geely still got what they wanted.
Until a few days ago, the name of the largest single shareholder of Daimler Group had already fallen on the head of Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "BAIC Group") as early as 2019, which surprised the automobile circle. Conservative Germany has managed to make two Chinese companies the top two shareholders of the parent company of the world's top luxury brands, which also shows that the relationship between the two countries is still good.
However, what is intriguing is that since BAIC Group became the largest shareholder of Daimler Group in 2019, why was it not made public at that time, and why did it choose to announce this news at the last moment of 2021? It's reminiscent. Of course, the main reason is nothing more than the full liberalization of the joint venture share ratio restrictions in 2022, and BAIC Group and its holding company (there are no shortage of two listed companies) to offset the potential impact in the future.
On December 13, BAIC Group announced that in order to strengthen the long-term strategic cooperation between the two sides, it has held the shares of Daimler Group in 2019 to 9.98% through continued investment. At the same time, Daimler Group holds 9.55% of the shares of Baiqi Motor (HK.01958), a Hong Kong-listed company under baiqi group, and 2.46% of the shares of baiqi blue valley (SH.600733), an A-share listed company.
It is worth noting that Daimler's actual shareholding in Beijing Benz has increased slightly through its shareholding in Beijing Automobile.
As we all know, BAIC Motor and Daimler directly hold 51% and 49% of the equity of Beijing Benz, respectively. Daimler holds a 9.55% stake in BAIC Motor, that is, Daimler also indirectly holds about 4.8705% of the equity of Beijing Benz through BAIC Motor. To some extent, this means that Daimler actually holds 53.8705% of the equity of Beijing Benz.
However, this is obviously not enough compared with the proportion of BMW Group's equity in BMW Brilliance and the proportion of Volkswagen Group's equity in Volkswagen Anhui.
Since the opening of the stock ratio two years ago, BMW has taken the lead in increasing the equity ratio of BMW Brilliance to 75%, reaching the basic control of BMW Brilliance; Volkswagen has cooperated with Jianghuai Automobile to hold 75% of Volkswagen (Anhui); in the new cooperation between Audi and FAW in the field of new energy, the audi shareholding ratio of the Joint Venture Project of Audi FAW New Energy has reached 60%, and FAW seems to be exchanging equity for unpaid
At this point, the "big three" of German automobiles seems to be the only "benefit" that Daimler Group has not yet gained from the release of the share ratio. Daimler seems to actually hold 53.8705% of Beijing Benz, but in fact, it still has to deliver huge profits to BAIC Group, and not only Beijing Benz, but also Daimler's global profits.
In this context, how could Daimler stop there? In fact, in the financial report released by Daimler, the car K line has found that Daimler plans to increase its Stock Ratio in Beijing Benz, but there has been no progress so far.
Compared with BAIC Group, Geely not only jointly established a travel company with Daimler, but also established a joint venture with Smart to manufacture electric vehicles, and even jointly developed a next-generation powertrain with Mercedes-Benz. However, for BAIC, due to the lack of core technology, the fate of the "foundry" is difficult to get rid of, not to mention the right to speak, which highlights a hint of helplessness and bitterness.
However, for Beijing Automobile and BAIC Group, Beijing Benz is not just a profit cow, but a "cash cow" that can be compared to a life-saving straw.
2 Must be with the game
According to the financial report data of auto K-line statistics, Beijing Benz has contributed tens of billions of net profits to BAIC in the past few years, and under the background of consecutive years of losses in the independent sector, beijing hyundai is no longer in the good situation, and the new energy sector is up and down, Beijing Benz relies on its own strength to let the entire BAIC go forward and ensure the preservation and appreciation of state-owned assets.
In 2022, the shareholding limit in the automotive industry will be completely abolished. But for Baic Motor and BAIC Group, Beijing Benz may be a "necessity" for a long time! Now, at the end of 2021 and the upcoming node of 2022, BAIC Group announced that it has become a major shareholder, perhaps paving the way for Daimler to increase its share ratio in Beijing Benz and reduce the huge impact of the stock ratio change news.
Since the announcement of BAIC Group becoming Daimler's largest shareholder, BAIC Motor's stock price has risen for four consecutive trading days, of which the increase on the 15th was as high as 15.27%. For a long time in the past, Bai auto's stock price was sluggish. It is noteworthy that the public information of BAIC Group shows that according to the agreement between the two parties, BAIC Group will no longer increase its shares in Daimler Group. There is obviously a fierce game behind this. BAIC also bought itself an insurance after the German election.
It is worth mentioning that not long ago, Daimler Benz announced that the company's supervisory board has passed the corresponding business plan for 2022 to 2026, and Mercedes-Benz products will be completely converted from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles by 2030. Baiqi Group mentioned in the release that by the end of 2021, Mercedes-Benz will introduce a total of four pure electric models in China, including EQA, EQB, EQC and EQS. Among them, EQA, EQB and EQC have been put into production in China, and the new EQE will be produced next year.
For daimler AG, two major Chinese shareholders support its electrification process, which can share costs and effectively reduce potential risks. According to Daimler's third quarterly report, its third-quarter revenue was 40.1 billion euros, a slight decrease year-on-year; net profit was 2.573 billion euros, an increase of 19% year-on-year, indicating that Daimler has emerged from the shadow of the emissions gate scandal caused by the Volkswagen Group.
In the author's opinion, BAIC's increase in Daimler's share ratio is the most obvious for Daimler to increase its share ratio in the joint venture, even if it loses a part of beijing Benz's shares, but by increasing its shareholding in Daimler Group, it may also indirectly make up profits. But the premise is that Daimler will share dividends.
With the news of the cross-shareholding of BAIC Group and Daimler Group exposed, the day when Daimler Group increased the equity of Beijing Benz may not be far away. At that time, Beijing Benz will disappear in the financial report of Beijing Automobile.
If this news is the prelude to the change in the stock ratio of Beijing Benz, can the performance of Beijing Automobile, which is highly dependent on Mercedes-Benz, still be seen? And will its performance in the capital markets still be so positive? Of course, Geely and BAIC, which were previously rumored to be mixed reforms, can make a comeback and make the rumors come true?