If there is no accident, this year, the annual loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries will exceed that of ternary lithium batteries, and after four years, it will once again become the winner of this technical route battle.
On December 10, the installed capacity data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that from January to November, the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries reached 63.3GWh, accounting for 49.3%. The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 64.8GWh, accounting for 50.5%.
Since the loading volume of ternary lithium batteries in 2017 surpassed the lithium iron phosphate batteries, in four years, the technical route of power batteries has gone through a cycle.
Today, lithium iron phosphate batteries have once again ushered in a tailwind. In the last cycle, lithium iron phosphate batteries were once identified by the industry as a "backward" technology.
From the former "backward technology" to the "top stream" again, what has lithium iron phosphate experienced in the past two years?
First, the impact of subsidy policies
In the dispute between the technical route of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries, there is a key time that must be mentioned - 2016.
From 2009, when China opened the "ten cities and thousands of vehicles" promotion project for new energy vehicles, to 2016, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been the most mainstream solution.
At that time, the domestic new energy vehicle market was dominated by commercial vehicles, and the low-cost and high-safety attributes of lithium iron phosphate batteries just fit the needs of the commercial vehicle market.
Until the end of 2016, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a new policy for subsidies for new energy vehicles: since 2017, new energy vehicles have been subsidized according to energy density, and energy densities higher than 120wh/kg are subsidized by 1.1 times.
At that time, there were very few lithium iron phosphate batteries with energy densities of 120wh/kg, but ternary lithium batteries with innate advantages in chemical properties could easily reach this level.
So this subsidy policy has a more straightforward interpretation in the eyes of car companies - models with a range of more than 250 kilometers can get 4400 yuan more subsidies if they are loaded with ternary batteries.
Also in that year, due to the advancement of technology and the low price of raw materials, the average price of ternary lithium batteries has dropped from 2.75 yuan / Wh in 2014 to 2.15 yuan / Wh, which is lower than the 2.35 yuan / Wh of lithium iron phosphate.
Under the double impetus, ternary lithium batteries have gained momentum. After 8 years of lithium iron phosphate batteries dominating the market, in 2017, the proportion of ternary lithium batteries in the passenger car market has reached 76%.
But ternary lithium battery is not the perfect solution, its biggest deficiency lies in the safety problem at high temperatures.
Taking the ternary 811 battery as an example, it was once a ternary lithium battery with the highest energy density and the highest technical content, but its thermal runaway temperature was quite low, resulting in frequent spontaneous combustion events.
Once, when Tesla first entered the Chinese market, the high endurance brought by the ternary lithium battery was once sought after by the audience.
But in 2019, successive spontaneous combustion incidents have also pushed the three-yuan 811 battery on its board to the cusp of the storm.
Even the theory of endurance in the subsidy policy has begun to cause reflection in the entire industry.
It was also in this year that the state's subsidies began to decline sharply. The subsidy advantages brought about by high energy density and high endurance are no longer as obvious as in the past.
On the other hand, in 2018, the development of technology and the fluctuation of raw material prices have made the price advantages of the two batteries interchanged again. Ternary lithium batteries became the one with higher costs.
At this point, the two major supports that help the rise of ternary lithium batteries are gone. At that time, it was predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries may become the mainstream of the market again. However, at that time, lithium iron phosphate batteries did not break through because of their energy density, and they were still considered backward technology by many people.
To gain market recognition again, lithium iron phosphate batteries need technology and opportunities.
Second, the turning point of 2020
Finally, in 2020, lithium iron phosphate batteries have come to two key figures in the development process - Wang Chuanfu and Musk.
At the beginning of 2020, BYD, which has been firmly choosing the route of lithium iron phosphate, released a "blade battery".
Through structural innovation, the blade battery has increased the volume utilization rate of traditional lithium iron phosphate battery packs by more than 50%, and the system mass energy density and volume energy density have been greatly improved.
More critically, at that conference, BYD took safety as one of the most important publicity points for blade batteries. After experiencing a series of spontaneous combustion incidents of new energy vehicles in 2019, safety has become the most important thing for consumers.
As a result, lithium iron phosphate batteries, which were once considered backward technologies, have turned into the strongest nova with not bad energy density and stronger safety.
In June this year, when the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries for the first time in recent years, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfuzhi said triumphantly: "Blade batteries single-handedly pulled lithium iron phosphate back from the margins."
After the release of the blade battery, the CTP technology and JTM technology of CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have also been applied to lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the energy density has also been greatly improved.
If Wang Chuanfu has made up for the re-emergence of lithium iron phosphate batteries, then Musk, the king of goods, has contributed to the marketing and publicity of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In mid-2020, Tesla began to officially use the lithium iron phosphate battery of the Ningde era on domestic models. When Tesla, the vane of new energy vehicles, began to use lithium iron phosphate batteries, the attitude of the outside world to this technology has completely changed.
On various occasions, Musk has also spared no effort to bring goods for lithium iron phosphate.
In August this year, Musk wrote clearly in response to questions from some car owners on Twitter that he prefers lithium iron phosphate batteries "because they can be charged to 100%, while ternary lithium batteries are only recommended to charge to 90%."
Of course, as to why Tesla chose lithium iron phosphate batteries, some people believe that the main reason is to reduce costs and then quickly occupy the market.
Indeed, since Tesla began to use lithium iron phosphate batteries on the domestic Model 3 and Model Y, its price has dropped significantly, and a large number of orders have been harvested.
Due to the use of cobalt, nickel and other metals, the current price of ternary lithium batteries is significantly higher than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In February this year, Musk said that out of concerns about the long-term availability of nickel, Tesla will consider more electric vehicles with lithium iron phosphate batteries, "Nickel raw material supply is our most concerned issue in the battery mass production process, which is why we plan to carry standard endurance versions of electric vehicles with iron lithium batteries." Iron (and lithium) has a lot! ”
Wang Chuanfu also has a similar statement, in his view, "the real large-scale promotion of batteries, must not rely on rare metals."
Especially in China. At present, the domestic market is heavily dependent on imports of cobalt and nickel, while phosphate rock is abundant.
In fact, the reason why the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries this year is also an important reason that cannot be ignored - driven by popular models.
BYD models, Tesla models, and Hongguang MINI, which rank at the top of the sales list of new energy vehicles, are all equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Third, write at the end
However, today's lithium iron phosphate batteries are not without drawbacks. Poor performance at low temperatures is still a problem that it has not been able to solve.
Even because of this shortcoming, in recent media reports, "lithium iron phosphate battery loading capacity exceeds ternary lithium or exacerbates the winter endurance problem of new energy vehicles" has once again become the focus of attention.
As for the ultimate solution to battery technology, more and more people are now looking forward to solid-state batteries that combine long battery life with high security.
Not long ago, when talking about the future development of solid-state batteries, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association, said that although China is currently in an absolute leading position in the supply of automotive power batteries, in the field of solid-state batteries, it will take at least five years for China to catch up with Japan.
Interestingly, in the ranking of global power battery manufacturers in the first few months of this year, BYD just surpassed LG and Panasonic with the hot sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
So when the next wave of technical route battles comes, will the offensive and defensive momentum change again?